ChescoWx Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 AM low temps in spots just 2 miles away like down at Marsh Creek at 400 ft ASL made it down to a low of 25.8 while here a few hundred feet up almost 10 degrees warmer this AM at 35.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 16 hours ago, RedSky said: Stowe looks sweet found a map showing they average 100"+. Johnstown is one of the few places in the nation one can buy a nice house complete with a garage for 20k, can't buy a deck that cheap in SEPA lol Are you talking about Stowe, VT or PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 6 hours ago, ChasingFlakes said: Are you talking about Stowe, VT or PA? Good question - Seven Springs. Never been there but for some crazy reason google maps labeled it Stowe some kind of glitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 9 hours ago, ChasingFlakes said: Are you talking about Stowe, VT or PA? It must be Stowe VT. Stowe PA isn't that far away and wouldn't average 100" RedSky, Johnstown is a complete shit-hole... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 25, 2019 Author Share Posted December 25, 2019 Pretty cold out there this morning, current temp 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 AM Low here in East Nantmeal was 30.0 while down at Marsh Creek at lake level down to 22.7 - these higher AM min temps are killing any hope of making my December forecast ....not that hopes were that high anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 Only got down to 40F overnight. Already up to 47F at 10:30 on a cloudy, late Dec morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 There were mosquitoes outside yesterday, really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 6 hours ago, RedSky said: There were mosquitoes outside yesterday, really Lol. I had a gnat on my phone today outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 On 12/24/2019 at 12:02 AM, jwilson said: Truthfully, I don't know much of anything about Johnstown other than the big flood happened there. I will say being in the Laurel Highlands is a huge benefit, as you figured from the increased snow totals, though the really big winner tends to be Garrett County, Maryland. They are constantly getting warning level events while Pittsburgh metro gets a dusting or even nothing at all. The big ski towns like Seven Springs and Hidden Valley (near Somerset, PA) are the next best snow locales in the area. With some places you have to be careful of microclimates. If you're on the leeward side of a ridge or "mountain" you'll see isolated spots without much accumulation relative to the rest of the area. I'm a "big storm" guy so for me it's a struggle. Watching Philly get coastals while we have a high ceiling isn't ideal. If we ever get a '93 superstorm again, though, then we're in the money! I don't know why I haven't just moved to a ski town and gotten it over with. I feel like we played this game before, notably last year. The good pattern kept appearing in the D10 range but would just as quickly vanish. I don't even know if I should compare the two years because I'm not sure they are analogous, but the lack of predictability now isn't my cup of tea. I will say we seemingly had good patterns progged for Christmas, then New Year's, until we didn't, and we're high and dry. Back to the drawing board for long range forecasters. If nothing happens for the first few weeks of January then you're gonna have to punt the whole month. I'm an end-of-January birthday and I couldn't even tell you the last time we had snow of any significance during that last week of January. Not for as long as I've been alive. I don't know why but it doesn't happen. Don't worry, February will be rockin this winter, especially with the extra day due to it being a leap year, lol. Although according to my research, the most snow received on a Feb. 29th at PHL is 1 inch. Still would almost double the current total here this season so far, which is 1.3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Not sure what is worse to have lost December as a winter month or gained November as a useless cold month, or March as the new winter month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 This winter sucks. Heading to Poconos tomorrow just to get rained on. Awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 Non-weather related but has any but checked out the fading Betelgeuse in Orion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 2 hours ago, hazwoper said: This winter sucks. Heading to Poconos tomorrow just to get rained on. Awful Im in new Hampshire where they've had 25" in December before I arrived only for it to rain and erase their entire snowpack in the 4 days that Ive been here. Supposed to snow and sleet 5-8" the day after I leave too lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 Just now, The Iceman said: Im in new Hampshire where they've had 25" in December before I arrived only for it to rain and erase their entire snowpack in the 4 days that Ive been here. Supposed to snow and sleet 5-8" the day after I leave too lol Oof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 Dr Joe D "former Dr. Dewpoint" at WB from today's post... "This opens the arctic flood gates with coast to coast, border to border cold including at some point a Florida freeze threat" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 29, 2019 Author Share Posted December 29, 2019 Larry Cosgrove still holding fairly strong that there won't be much change to a colder and possibly snowier pattern in his longer term outlook until the end of January. Although he did say there could be a colder period early in the new month. All is not lost but his reason for keeping the east coast on the warmer side is the ridging over Cuba and Hispaniola. Also when the pattern does become more favorable for snow in late January he once again mentions the snow chances will increase between the Continental Divide and the Appalachian Mountains but did not mention the east coast. So take it for what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 3 hours ago, ChescoPaWxman said: Dr Joe D "former Dr. Dewpoint" at WB from today's post... "This opens the arctic flood gates with coast to coast, border to border cold including at some point a Florida freeze threat" That looks almost nothing like the pattern rolling forward on the ens means. Huge Pac ridge N of Hawaii is the dealbreaker. We can still get lucky and back into some snow as prime climo nears, but if the means looks hold, we will be struggling to see any 'sustained' wintry patterns. Like I mentioned a while back, likely a roller coaster/topsy turvy winter with no real sustained + or - but somehow we will end up around avg or just above in snowfall by the end of the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 19 hours ago, RedSky said: Non-weather related but has any but checked out the fading Betelgeuse in Orion? I tried taking a peek last night, but there were some high, thin clouds overhead so I didn't get a good look. Sounds like nothing will happen in our lifetime, but I'd love to see a supernova before my time is up. I remember there was one in 1987, but it was only visible in the southern hemisphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 As of 8:30 pm, Allentown had picked up 0.10" rain for the day. That brought total precipitation for 2019 to 60.00". As a result, 2019 became the second consecutive year during which Allentown had picked up 60.00" or more annual precipitation. Last year's figure was 66.96". This is the first time on record that Allentown has had two consecutive years with 60.00" or more precipitation. Records go back to 1901. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 All this moisture is almost too much of a good thing (from a theoretical perspective). Despite the wet years, it hasn't translated into more snow. It is rare for all the teleconnections to align for positive outcomes. Likewise, it simply becomes a game of chance (or only a matter of time) when they'll all align in the opposite direction for pure nightmare fuel. -PNA, +AO, +NAO, poor MJO alignment. All at once. I don't know enough about the interrelationships and atmospheric science, but I feel like it is bound to happen eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 30, 2019 Author Share Posted December 30, 2019 Picked up 0.28" of rain for the day. Current temp 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 17 hours ago, ChescoPaWxman said: Dr Joe D "former Dr. Dewpoint" at WB from today's post... "This opens the arctic flood gates with coast to coast, border to border cold including at some point a Florida freeze threat" Just to add to this and I am by no means an expert on the solar min or the QBO but in the small amount of research and reading on the subject, there is generally a lag time. So while the chart.you posted may in fact fit the look after solar min, keep in mind we arent forecast to arrive there until April-ish which if you factor in lag time makes that map more probable for winter 20-21 and not the current season. Right now we need to start seeing blocking in the NAO and AO regions to counter that massive central Pac ridge which is driving the pattern downstream into the US. A west coast trof / -pna with a developing SE ridge and no ao/nao help is one of the worst looks we can get. Let's hope in a few weeks things start to progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 December 30th...maybe we can track some t-storms instead. The line looks a little more consolidated on the 12z NAM than it currently does on the HRRR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 34 minutes ago, JTA66 said: December 30th...maybe we can track some t-storms instead. The line looks a little more consolidated on the 12z NAM than it currently does on the HRRR. Would be nice to track some 60 degree temps too over the next 6 weeks or so for some Wiggum snows. 93% success rate when the temp hits 60 in Doylestown between waning days of Dec thru Valentines Day we see some snow within the next 5 days following. This pattern is boring quite honestly. I thought the Pac puke pattern would be transient and the Jan 6 period would be the end of it. Looks like I am going to fail on the transient look as signs point to the puke redeveloping with the central Pac ridge anchoring and driving things downstream. But who knows really? These same ens did this last year in the LR promising an epic pattern only to keep it 2 weeks away until March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 Early snow/big cold and middle eastern blizzards gain credence as bad omens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 2 hours ago, RedSky said: Early snow/big cold and middle eastern blizzards gain credence as bad omens. You might be on to something. You should do independent research and write a thesis. Who knows....Nobel peace prize?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 31, 2019 Author Share Posted December 31, 2019 Picked up 0.45" of rain for the day yesterday. Storm total 0.73" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 I hope this post can be bump trolled but it looks like January is a complete punt at this point. Nothing at all worth tracking except cutters and AN temps. Have to hope things start to improve in the LR in the next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 When it comes to winter in this region the hardest thing to do is get a great Dec 15-Jan 15 stretch. I fail to understand why it remains mission impossible, odds would say it happens every several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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