RedSky Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Forecast low was 38F and everything is frosty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 Picked up 0.53" of rain so far today. Current temp 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 10, 2019 Author Share Posted December 10, 2019 Picked up 1.24" of rain so far today. Current temp 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 10, 2019 Author Share Posted December 10, 2019 Picked up 1.50" of rain for the day. Current temp 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Keeping an eye on what I'm already dubbing The Iceman's Birthday Storm. Fun fact, in the 28(about to be 29) years I've been alive, it has never snowed on Dec. 17th > 1inch in my backyard. Can this year break the streak? 12z Euro gives us a really nice thump to ice to rain back to snow which would be a good hit for this time of the year. We really aren't going to get a good read on this storm until this weekend because this weekend's storm sets the table for this event. Expect a bunch of changes in the coming days. Definitely best looking threat we've had this year though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Ended up with 1.31" rain Monday and 0.20" rain on Tuesday for 1.51" for the 2-day event. Had a high of 57 yesterday and am back down to a wintery 33 at the moment with some flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 18z GFS on the 21-22nd is a thing of beauty. Very nice miller A. Snowy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Get that on a good model and within three days we be in bizzness 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Mild last third of December is gaining favor due to Pacific influence. Seems like as the years accumulate that segment of December has a 70% chance of being non wintry, shouldn't we start naming it the December thaw? Makes more sense than January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, RedSky said: Mild last third of December is gaining favor due to Pacific influence. Seems like as the years accumulate that segment of December has a 70% chance of being non wintry, shouldn't we start naming it the December thaw? Makes more sense than January. Yeah looking like the WAA thump on Tuesday is our best shot of anything frozen in the next 2 weeks. Figures that as soon as we get the Atlantic to cooperate with a -NAO and -AO, the pacific decides to go to garbage muting all of the atlantic's positives. Frustrating start. Have to hope that PAC air invasion is transient... Otherwise another winter of azz is on tap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: Yeah looking like the WAA thump on Tuesday is our best shot of anything frozen in the next 2 weeks. Figures that as soon as we get the Atlantic to cooperate with a -NAO and -AO, the pacific decides to go to garbage muting all of the atlantic's positives. Frustrating start. Have to hope that PAC air invasion is transient... Otherwise another winter of azz is on tap. Should be a period of moderation coming between middle of next week and the last few days of the month. Not completely sold on a full blown and extended torch but yes we were just discussing this someqhere else irt how we cant get both the Atl and Pac sides to play nice together for the last almost decade it seems. We can still score events with just one side working but it is usually something that shows up on guidance under 4 days. This current pattern and where we may be headed should be viewed cautiously as models are flipping around with forecast looks under 5 days lately. Nailing down the pattern developments past day 8 so far this year has been a very low confidence venture with what seems to be complete 180s at times irt key teleconnections. The Pac specifically has hinted at west coast troffing only to see monster EPO ridges appear a few times already. All signs do appear headed for some moderation but I'm not completely sold on it. These torch looks have been muted and pushed back time and time again thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delaware Valley Weather Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Qbo argues for a -nao winter and the Alaska warm pool argues for a western North American ridge. It would be nice if we get extended periods of the two working in tandem but hopefully at the very least if we lose either the pac or the atl the other side will prevent a full on extended torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Snow to sleet to rain Monday maybe some light accums before the change. Then maybe some snow squalls Wednesday behind the system....blustery and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Should be a period of moderation coming between middle of next week and the last few days of the month. Not completely sold on a full blown and extended torch but yes we were just discussing this someqhere else irt how we cant get both the Atl and Pac sides to play nice together for the last almost decade it seems. We can still score events with just one side working but it is usually something that shows up on guidance under 4 days. This current pattern and where we may be headed should be viewed cautiously as models are flipping around with forecast looks under 5 days lately. Nailing down the pattern developments past day 8 so far this year has been a very low confidence venture with what seems to be complete 180s at times irt key teleconnections. The Pac specifically has hinted at west coast troffing only to see monster EPO ridges appear a few times already. All signs do appear headed for some moderation but I'm not completely sold on it. These torch looks have been muted and pushed back time and time again thus far. I unlike most here are quite enthused with the pattern. I remain confident we end up with an above average snow month and January remains on path for some very interesting times IMHO. Folks sometimes forget even out here in the NW burbs - we only average 4.7" of snow in December - we have already had 1.5" of snow this month and I expect we will add to the snow total on Monday before the change to rain (I suspect it will be a slow process once N and W of I95) - watch for another winter event around Christmas and toward the New Year. Interesting times ahead.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 43 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Snow to sleet to rain Monday maybe some light accums before the change. Then maybe some snow squalls Wednesday behind the system....blustery and cold. Correct me if I’m wrong isn’t this the type of setup we had last year, several snow to ice events 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 hour ago, penndotguy said: Correct me if I’m wrong isn’t this the type of setup we had last year, several snow to ice events Every year. These events are very common and generally how the area especially in and around the city, reach their seasonal averages. All snow events are not all that common here tbh. We have been spoiled in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 hour ago, ChescoPaWxman said: I unlike most here are quite enthused with the pattern. Define "most" because we only have a few regular posters and aside from that one guy in Monmouth County , the regulars are pretty much in sync with the favorable pattern tellies and the background state that is emerging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Gefs has a nice signal for a coastal for the 22nd. Eps is also coming along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Awesome another big rainstorm on the 22nd. After this week on my way to my first 10" rain December. It really has a chance no joke 5" will be on the books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Define "most" because we only have a few regular posters and aside from that one guy in Monmouth County , the regulars are pretty much in sync with the favorable pattern tellies and the background state that is emerging. Come on man 5" rain by tomorrow and a nasty mild last third of December better than 50/50 chance favorable it ain't Hopefully improvement in January still too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Charlie Brown what did you get for xmas "I got a lake" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 7 minutes ago, RedSky said: Awesome another big rainstorm on the 22nd. After this week on my way to my first 10" rain December. It really has a chance no joke 5" will be on the books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Define "most" because we only have a few regular posters and aside from that one guy in Monmouth County , the regulars are pretty much in sync with the favorable pattern tellies and the background state that is emerging. Words of wisdom Steve....wish we had more folks on here but I truly appreciate all the peeps that do choose to post here - thanks!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Show the ECM lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Just now, ChescoPaWxman said: Words of wisdom Steve....wish we had more folks on here but I truly appreciate all the peeps that do choose to post here - thanks!! Likewise Paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 minute ago, RedSky said: Show the ECM lol Ok signal for some sort of a coastal storm at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Come on man do you SEE the WEST, THAT IS NOT an east coast snow storm look, i feel like DT lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, RedSky said: Come on man do you SEE the WEST, THAT IS NOT an east coast snow storm look, i feel like DT lol There are always windows of opportunity in avg patterns especially as NAO blocks breakdown aka Archambault event. How many times have we had snow then behind the storm temps actually rise in lieu of ridging/moderation. January 2016 storm was a great example of that. I'm not saying this is an east coast snowstorm at all but the ens are showing some potential. To say no chance whatsoever as you are doing is silly. You did that during an accumulating snowfall in your area once or twice already in recent weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: There are always windows of opportunity in avg patterns especially as NAO blocks breakdown aka Archambault event. How many times have we had snow then behind the storm temps actually rise in lieu of ridging/moderation. January 2016 storm was a great example of that. I'm not saying this is an easy coast snowstorm at all but the ens are showing some potential. To say no chance whatsoever as you are doing is silly. You did that during an accumulating snowfall in your area once or twice already in recent weeks. I said better than 50/50 never said no chance and that GFS is a garbage scow. Now if it somehow "finds" arctic high to the north which is possible then it is no longer a rain look. Big blizzard in Jan 2016 rest of winter was a sewer plant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 18 minutes ago, RedSky said: Come on man 5" rain by tomorrow and a nasty mild last third of December better than 50/50 chance favorable it ain't Hopefully improvement in January still too early. Actually if you look at the GEFS 2m 5-day averages thru the run, aside from the first panel the entire run is BN with 1 N panel I saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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