Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,589
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Upstate/Eastern New York


 Share

Recommended Posts

12 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Delta, thoughts on Monroe county? I saw earlier 2-4”. You still there or more optimistic? Point and Click gave a big jump to 6-10. I’m a bit hopeful we get into a back side band overnight. Staying at my folks in Pittsford to get as close as I can. 

I still like 2-4 still, especially for the west side.  Will definitely see more east.  We are going to see a plume or snow materialize over the fingerlakes soon as the mid level vorticity and lift interacts with the Atlantic moisture from new low. The western edge will have a brutal cut off. I definitely don’t like my position but we shall see. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Also, as a quick aside. The fugiwhara effect should have never been mentioned (by whoever it was on the other forum) as this is not an example of it at all. The fugiwhara effect is when two separate low pressure systems approach each other and interact by rotating about each other.  What we are seeing on the east coast with this storm Is more akin to a tornado with multiples mesoscale vortices. There is one large area of lift and energy that has localized areas of enhanced convective activity. This creates a broad area of low pressure with smaller meso lows that are slowly consolidating around the strongest area of lift.  I can see how it could be confused but it’s not the same. Anyway. we want the primary area of lift to consolidate just off NYC. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

All sleet with just enough snowflakes mixed in to keep me optimistic for an imminent change over....all day long.  Bottomed out at 12° last night and topped out at 28° today.  Down to 26° and light sleet ongoing at 4:45pm.  Patiently waiting for the transition back to snow but this warm air aloft seems fairly robust/persistent in our neck of the woods.  

We’ll see what the night/morning brings but I have to admit that several models did a pretty good job showing an area of lower snow accumulations extending northward just reaching into our area for at least the last two days.  We probably missed out on a solid 4-6” today if it had been all snow.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I arrived home to a 4 to 5 inch snow/ice pack north of Bville.

It is heavy.... snowblower was struggling with the plowed stuff at the end of driveway. Already a huge pile there with how sleet/snowpack mounds up.

I was thinking about snowblowing this goop but its windy and frankly, i think we get another 3-4" of lighter density snow on top so not a problem.  That's my theory anyway.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

**Latest Snowfall Totals thru Mon Night*** 10 - 16 inches of snow becoming more likely. Areas could see 2 in / hr. Travel could be very dangerous to impossible Stay safe everyone. Dave Nicosia Warning Coordination Meteorologist NWS Binghamton, NY

 

No.  4-8" looks about right.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

I was thinking about snowblowing this goop but its windy and frankly, i think we get another 3-4" of lighter density snow on top so not a problem.  That's my theory anyway.

You're probably right. It will probably redevelop too late for us to get to a foot.

Models may show it....but I am skeptical, just as I was about us staying all snow.

I am slowly learning to just accept that it rarely works out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, TugHillMatt said:

You're probably right. It will probably redevelop too late for us to get to a foot.

Models may show it....but I am skeptical, just as I was about us staying all snow.

I am slowly learning to just accept that it rarely works out.

We could get a foot or so, not impossible but i've been suspicious of a lot of modeling showing an extended period of what looks like light to moderate snow redeveloping and *somewhere* there will be some heavier blobs...doesn't even look like banding.  That's what has me suspicious of more than 6-10". I'd like to see a pivoting of the WAA band to form a solid deformation band and explosive slp development.  Instead, some other sort of magical processes, inverted trough, etc., will occur with a weakling slp somewhere SE of SNE to produce large snow amts... somewhere.  It even has precip pulling SE as Monday grinds on.  If we had clear lake enhancement i'd feel more confident.  We'll see, they're all different.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Syrmax said:

We could get a foot or so, not impossible but i've been suspicious of a lot of modeling showing an extended period of what looks like light to moderate snow redeveloping and *somewhere* there will be some heavier blobs...doesn't even look like banding.  That's what has me suspicious of more than 6-10". I'd like to see a pivoting of the WAA band to form a solid deformation band and explosive slp development.  Instead, some other sort of magical processes, inverted trough, etc., will occur with a weakling slp somewhere SE of SNE to produce large snow amts... somewhere.  It even has precip pulling SE as Monday grinds on.  If we had clear lake enhancement i'd feel more confident.  We'll see, they're all different.

Good discussion. Radar to me looks weak as well. Things pulling off quickly to the east.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...