Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 15 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said: How’s the snowpack doing up in Ottawa? I have some time off and was considering heading north to get in some cross country skiing. Certainly not happening around here for a while. I have actually been living in Toronto for the past few years, so don't see as much snow as I used to up in Ottawa. That being said, last winter was pretty good, particularly late January and early February. Currently bare ground in Toronto, although, if you can believe it, we have so far seen more snow this winter than we did throughout the entire winter of 2011/2012. November 2019 was the coldest November in Toronto since 1976, and in the top 5 coldest on record. Was in Montreal last weekend and the difference in temperature compared to Toronto was impressive - about 13 degrees Celsius colder in fact - thanks to the northeasterly flow. As for Ottawa, it looks like they're expecting a fair bit of snow this Sunday and Monday, so you should be good for skiing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 Any Euro maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 I still like the chances of a little snow sometime Tuesday-thursday on a mainly west-wsw flow, nothing huge but could pad the stats a little..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 Euro is getting there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 34 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Euro is getting there.. Yeah, it's getting to a NE snowstorm while we shovel flurries...;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 27, 2019 Author Share Posted December 27, 2019 Eps back to cold in LR. Flippity flop we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 27, 2019 Author Share Posted December 27, 2019 Getting some EPO/WPO help in the LR. That PNA though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 27, 2019 Author Share Posted December 27, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 27, 2019 Author Share Posted December 27, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 27, 2019 Author Share Posted December 27, 2019 CFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 NAM is a huge hit for my area. Cold too we stay as snow. Lot of that other crap further south is sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 27, 2019 Author Share Posted December 27, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 27, 2019 Author Share Posted December 27, 2019 I found the cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 27, 2019 Author Share Posted December 27, 2019 This does not appear to be a major lake effect event, but there will be a narrow window for some decent lake snows. Lake induced instability will be minimal, but ample when considering moisture provided by the shortwave and upstream lakes. There still is uncertainty in model guidance, but it appears the best chance for snow will be Tuesday night and Wednesday when the trough moves through. The most persistent winds are likely to be WSW which would focus any snow generally across the snow belts E-ENE of the lakes. Specific amounts will depend on band movement, and the evolution of the upper level low. Moderate accumulations are not out of the question, but the more likely outcome is that there will be only minor snow accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 Long time lurker here in warm and snowless Caledonia. Though I offer no weather insight or knowledge I am a snowmobiler and therefore I am a die hard winter lover. Over the last year or two I have come to this page for the inside scoop on long range forecasts and the likelihood of whether or not a winter storm might impact the WNY area. And though I am deeply disappointed by the way this winter seems to be shaping up just like last year with what seems the cold pattern flip on an ever moving horizon, I do enjoy coming on here and reading what you all have to say for winter weather, for better or for worse. Geez. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Ouch. That is ****ed. All of January shot? Luckily, I don’t believe in LR forecasting 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 This does not appear to be a major lake effect event, but there willbe a narrow window for some decent lake snows. Lake inducedinstability will be minimal, but ample when considering moistureprovided by the shortwave and upstream lakes. There still isuncertainty in model guidance, but it appears the best chance forsnow will be Tuesday night and Wednesday when the trough movesthrough. The most persistent winds are likely to be WSW whichwould focus any snow generally across the snow belts E-ENE ofthe lakes. Specific amounts will depend on band movement, andthe evolution of the upper level low. Moderate accumulationsare not out of the question, but the more likely outcome isthat there will be only minor snow accumulations.Aside from a lake band hitting during a Bills game, the second biggest impact type event would be one hitting the metro during the New Years Eve ball drop. Guess it’s in the realm of possibility right now. Almost happened a few years ago just couldn’t get cranking until New Year’s Day. Ended up being a decent snowfall for the immediate south towns.https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2015-2016&event=C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 3 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Aside from a lake band hitting during a Bills game, the second biggest impact type event would be one hitting the metro during the New Years Eve ball drop. Guess it’s in the realm of possibility right now. Almost happened a few years ago just couldn’t get cranking until New Year’s Day. Ended up being a decent snowfall for the immediate south towns. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2015-2016&event=C . You know that scenario in '15 is awefully similar to this year, a western trough will be in placd, lake is about 8 degrees above normal (in spots according to the map BW showed earlier) and a system coming through at that time...if I'm not mistaken that second half of winter was pretty incredible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 You know that scenario in '15 is awefully similar to this year, a western trough will be in placd, lake is about 8 degrees above normal (in spots according to the map BW showed earlier) and a system coming through at that time...if I'm not mistaken that second half of winter was pretty incredible...That storm was our first measurable snowfall in the metro on the last day of December. Record low November and December monthly snowfalls.Things really got going middle of the month with a 10 day stretch dropping over 4’ along the Chautauqua Ridge and far Southern Erie County. Little break than another decent shot of lake snows mid February with the lake still open. The storm before Valentines Day was pretty rough going in the South Towns. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Ouch! Honestly, it's looking like Environment Canada and the NWS may be heading for victory with regard to their call for a warmer than average winter. They were against the grain and Environment Canada's forecast, in particular, raised some eyebrows up here in Canada from other weather outlets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2019 Author Share Posted December 28, 2019 1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: That storm was our first measurable snowfall in the metro on the last day of December. Record low November and December monthly snowfalls. Things really got going middle of the month with a 10 day stretch dropping over 4’ along the Chautauqua Ridge and far Southern Erie County. Little break than another decent shot of lake snows mid February with the lake still open. The storm before Valentines Day was pretty rough going in the South Towns. . We did a lot better then the airport due to those lake effect events. But otherwise far below normal at 80" here. If you get a below average temp. winter you can basically guarantee above normal snowfall. Above normal temps during the winter leads to below normal snowfall more times than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2019 Author Share Posted December 28, 2019 A decent event on GEM, will be interesting to see what high res say. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Favorable wind direction on the gfs, temps just cold enough lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 In the wake of Tuesday afternoon`s secondary trough/cold frontal passage...850 mb temperatures will dip to around -9C/-10C...or just marginally cold enough to support some weak to modest lake effect snows east and east-northeast of the lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday morning given the general westerly to west-southwesterly low level flow. With decent moisture and enhancement from upsloping in place...cannot rule out some moderate accumulations where the resulting activity is most persistent...however the relatively short time window...only marginally cold enough environment and the presence of some shear all still suggest only a minor lake effect event. Regardless of how much of a lake response there actually is... this should quickly wind down from west to east Wednesday afternoon and evening as surface-based ridging and drier air builds into our region...and warm air advection develops aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Gfs flips us over Tuesday afternoon/evening and snows until early Thursday AM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Very favorable track, if it was just a couple degrees colder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Last night I watched the Sabres play the Bruins. This morning I flipped though the 500mb GEFS and EPS charts. I can't even tell which is more depressing but I can tell you neither one was a positive experience. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2019 Author Share Posted December 28, 2019 GEM has pretty big LES event at end of run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Some nice upslope snows on the gfs/Ggem, not that it matters to most of us lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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