wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 That is global.. This is Northern Hemisphere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 PNA region Your more than welcome to show me some statistics with the GFS OP on top, I can't seem to find them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 In reality the best medium range guidance is the European ensembles.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: Been in PA and I am surprised how long the little bit of snow has held on here in the PA Mtns. U won't be back in time for this storm will you? Lol I kid I kid.. Have a good holiday, hopefully u come back to more than just liquid.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 38 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: U won't be back in time for this storm will you? Lol I kid I kid.. Have a good holiday, hopefully u come back to more than just liquid.. Thanks! I will be coming back this weekend...just in time for inches of RAIN. Bahaha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 GFS identical through 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 .with the outlier GFS showing its usual cold bias and supporting a much quicker arrival of colder air and resultant increased potential for lake effect snow showers downwind of the lakes from later Monday into Tuesday. Meanwhile the GEM and ECMWF are much slower in returning colder air and lake effect potential to our region...with the GEM holding the latter off until at least Monday night...and the ECMWF more notably even remaining far too warm for a lake response right through Tuesday. Given these differences and the GFS`s propensity to be far too cold/too fast with bringing colder air into our region...have tempered both the drop in temperatures and increase in lake effect probabilities previously indicated for Monday and Tuesday...with the latter looking to be no higher than lower end of the chance range at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 Merry Christmas everyone. Here’s hoping Santa brings us some snow ❄️! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 Merry Christmas all!! WPC Extended forecast discussion.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 I just flipped through the GEFS and EPS. No bueno. Hard to get rid of the deep low out by Alaska........strongly positive NAO and a lot of Pacific flow over the next 10-14 days. I'm trying to focus on all the times things looked perfect and then went to hell . Hoping the opposite can happen here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 1 hour ago, cny rider said: I just flipped through the GEFS and EPS. No bueno. Hard to get rid of the deep low out by Alaska........strongly positive NAO and a lot of Pacific flow over the next 10-14 days. I'm trying to focus on all the times things looked perfect and then went to hell . Hoping the opposite can happen here. The meteorological equivalent of coal in our stockings. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 Merry Christmas to all. Faced with another conundrum...with about 75% ground coverage of an inch (or so) of snow cover, does this qualify as a White Christmas? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 Looks like the majority of models now keep the ULL in the lakes minus the gfs who the wpc is siding with lol Looks like 2ndry development will form somewhere, maybe multiple.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 Still hanging on here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 Gfs done right with the phasing part of this system but not so sure it's right now lol Consistent for sure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 The 12z CMC is something I have never seen before. Forms the initial low in Texas which reforms in Michigan which reforms again off of cape cod . Three times!! It’s squished and the energy just breaks off. Interesting depiction 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 Icon not far behind if at all lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Icon not far behind if at all lol Wow also the three low solution. Models have to figure this out . I highly doubt this will occur verbatim. Lol looks like a disorganized mess with that stupid SW sitting there spinning for days after the initial storm with a very warm flow depiction late run CMC. I hear the AO is going to rise to record high anamolies and had a chance of hitting + 3-5’in first two weeks of January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 25, 2019 Author Share Posted December 25, 2019 Merry Christmas all! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 It's like a conveyer belt of moisture, just to far north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 I can’t post images but looks at the 2m anamolies into Canada late run on the CMC! Very warm I don’t like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 Just now, wolfie09 said: It's like a conveyer belt of moisture, just to far north.. Maine wins on a solution like that and cashes In from all three lows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 Just now, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: I can’t post images but looks at the 2m anamolies into Canada late run on the CMC! Very warm I don’t like it It finally worked. But look. That’s indicative of some strong AO rise. +15-20’surface temps into Canada based on last thirty year analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 25, 2019 Author Share Posted December 25, 2019 +20 departures? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: +20 departures? GFS surface temps 2m same time. Nice warm up. GFS even shows NYC hitting close to 60 on December 30th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 Could be worse. Here is Alaska from yesterday’s 6z. Wouldn’t want to be there right now. Crazy how they had record warmth in the summerX. Now have extreme cold. And still on pace for warmest year on record! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 Still hanging on here..Yeah, we hung in there for a White Christmas ( Merry Christmas All) but barely, but it'll be gone after tomorrow, for sure! It's just not looking promising right now for any sustainable cold air, combined with moisture for anything substantial, unfortunately. Something's sure seems amiss that's al I'm sayin!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 20 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I need this looks so cool. Enjoy wolfie you deserve it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: I have this exact station and I absolutely love it. Always accurate. Always reports to Wunderground with no issues and I can see the weather at my house no matter where I am. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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