PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 It’s not gonna make it this run but I love the look. Ridge into the Rockies at hour 234. Looks like yesterday’s 18z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 The omega block at 240 is really allowing that shortwave to dig into FL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 By Hr 264 a pacific zonal flow develops. But you can also see a small piece of energy breaking off that southern SW likely going to down a storm day 11! Makes me think the cold will be halted this run for sure. . In fact the long range part of this run 10days on looks pretty bleh. Mainly Zonal flow . Artic shortwave not digging down into Canada.nearly as much .long range wobbling. We will see. Everyone run drastically differently. Analyzing is fun but obviously taken with a grain of salt. Small storm forms day 11 which looks pretty good early on. Piece of energy gets funneled from SW across country to the easternshortwave . Crazy how weather works Gives everyone on this board some snow! Happy tracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 happy holidays to all by the way! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Thanks Pauly, same to you!! Canadian much farther south with the ULL, same time gfs is north of maine.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Thanks Pauly, same to you!! Canadian much farther south with the ULL, same time gfs is north of maine.. Long range GFS is setting up for a major Synoptic snowstorm wow! 1050 MB canadian high! s there a reason I can’t post images. Said it’s to big? I’m mad lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Thanks Pauly, same to you!! Canadian much farther south with the ULL, same time gfs is north of maine.. Wow the CMC is mighty close to a big hit for many!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Make sure you have enough room in your attachments.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Just now, wolfie09 said: I just looked at the Canadian. And it has a nice bowling ball look for sure! Gets shunted south at first allowing some space for the ULL to pass to the south of the region and dig more. Verbatim CMC is s solid snowstorm as is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Icon, gfs and Canadian all do something different but all deliver the goods lol Now we wait 6 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Just now, wolfie09 said: Icon, gfs and Canadian all do something different but all deliver the goods lol Now we wait 6 days Yes lol, the question is who do we trust. The Germans Canadians or Americans! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2019 Author Share Posted December 24, 2019 10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Icon, gfs and Canadian all do something different but all deliver the goods lol Now we wait 6 days Yeah definitely some good looks. Got ENS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Canadian was a nice run for you wny boys..I'm guessing that's from a farther south ULL... GFS ensembles are ok lol Few inches or so on the mean.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Patiently waiting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Euro looks different once again, complex scenario..Will take a while to nail down.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 The GFS cutter solution certainly shows a really nice lake response (albeit not for my backyard) behind the primary storm . The thing that really stands out right now is the ample low level moisture that hangs back for a solid 2 days right as the coldest and best aligned winds setup. Definitely intrigued by that aspect as things currently stand. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2019 Author Share Posted December 24, 2019 7 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: The GFS cutter solution certainly shows a really nice lake response (albeit not for my backyard) behind the primary storm . The thing that really stands out right now is the ample low level moisture that hangs back for a solid 2 days right as the coldest and best aligned winds setup. Definitely intrigued by that aspect as things currently stand. Yeah definitely the next timeframe to watch, looks to warm after it with another cutter. The air isn't extremely cold but with lake temps in mid 40s anything below normal at this time of year will yield a good lake response. Did you click the link? https://imgur.com/hMDLT2Y Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah definitely the next timeframe to watch, looks to warm after it with another cutter. The air isn't extremely cold but with lake temps in mid 40s anything below normal at this time of year will yield a good lake response. Did you click the link? https://imgur.com/hMDLT2Y You're right about the Delta T's because after I made my post I realized I hadnt checked the 850's and they are just barely cold enough for a good response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2019 Author Share Posted December 24, 2019 GEFS look much improved on noon runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Been in PA and I am surprised how long the little bit of snow has held on here in the PA Mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Been in PA and I am surprised how long the little bit of snow has held on here in the PA Mtns. Agreed, even the 4 inches we had here held on longer than expected. Shaded areas are still holding an inch. I'm guessing the super low sun angle and very dry air (dewpoint barely crept above freezing and only for a couple hours the past few days) has aided in the staying power. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2019 Author Share Posted December 24, 2019 This is a long stretch of way above normal temps for late Dec. This Afternoon Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Christmas Day Mostly sunny, with a high near 49. Thursday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Friday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50. Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 44. Sunday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. Monday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: This is a long stretch of way above normal temps for late Dec. This Afternoon Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Christmas Day Mostly sunny, with a high near 49. Thursday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Friday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50. Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 44. Sunday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. Monday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. It's ****ing gross. And how does it show 0 precip Sat-Monday with that large storm barreling through?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 6 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: It's ****ing gross. And how does it show 0 precip Sat-Monday with that large storm barreling through?? Euro didn’t show it for days, probably why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 6 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Euro didn’t show it for days, probably why It's just weird because that looked like a point and click from the NWS and they certainly show at least a 40% chance during that period. oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 26 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Euro didn’t show it for days, probably why Why the hate for the European lol It's literally post after post.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 It's still the best medium range we got . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: It's still the best medium range we got . Those are hemispheric scores, by region would be more useful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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