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Upstate/Eastern New York


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Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Dry slot racing NEward, Yes!!

I'd rather taint then Dryslot, personally.    At least its frozen precip.  Back in my southern CT days, you had to fight for any frozen precip you could get.  Back in the day.  Since then they seem to jackpot routinely.                                                                                        

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NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The mixed icy precipitation has largely come to an end across the
far western counties as of 20z (3 PM)...although fresh echoes on
upstream radars show that more showers will move in (and develop) as
we push towards this evening. Further east...the mixed precipitation
is falling as moderately heavy snow east of Lake Ontario.
Accumulations of 3 to 5 inches will be possible by nightfall from
Oswego county to the Thousand Islands region. This steadier pcpn is
being fed by a southerly 40kt low level jet that has moved to the
eastern portion of the state.
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Thermal profiles this evening will still support some rain or
freezing rain for the far western counties...while snow and possibly
some sleet or freezing rain will be found east of Lake Ontario. As
we progress through the night...weak cold advection will be JUST
enough to allow any mixed pcpn to grudgingly change to wet snow.
While most areas are not expected to pick up more an 1 to 3 inches
of snow...deeper moisture being fed back into the Finger Lakes
region will be acted upon by a robust shortwave that is currently
racing across Kentucky. As this mid level feature is circulated
northward across the Finger Lakes later tonight...moderate to heavy
snow will develop. Snow accumulations tonight of 4 to 6 inches can
be expected from Ontario county to southern Lewis county where a
winter storm warning remains in place.

On Monday...a large (but not overly strong) area of low pressure off
the coast of New Jersey will work its way up the coast...eventually
moving off Long Island by late afternoon. This will keep a deep
fetch of Atlantic moisture in place across New York state with a
cyclonic flow and some localized orographic lift supporting more
snow. The steadiest of this will remain over the Finger Lakes and
the eastern Lake Ontario region where several more inches of
accumulation will be likely. The snow will then taper off from
northwest to southeast during the afternoon and evening. Temperatures
on Monday are not expected to make it above freezing
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