wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Nice plume developing on sort of a WNW-NW, IDK but its forming nonetheless, lol, doubt its the beginning of anything substantial but one never knows around these here parts of the State. One of my favorite parts of the Winter Season are the passing of strong Arctic Fronts cause they cause the most havoc and tomorrow can be one of those days! That was modeled well, as winds are briefly out of the NW/WNW behind the departing system but will start to shift north ahead of the next system.. Lake effect snow will develop southeast of Lake Ontario this evening across Wayne County. This area of snow will be relatively light given the marginal setup. The lake snow will then move quickly east into Oswego County late tonight, before weakening further at the east end of the lake by daybreak. Accumulations of 2-3 inches are possible tonight as this band moves east from Wayne to Oswego counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 3k Nam showing that classic screw zone somewhere in Oswego county.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Shows not much anywhere. Seems dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 This is the first true artic surge of the season. I would expect thunder in the heaviest squalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 TBH it's showing up on all SR guidance.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Not saying it's right but it's there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Oh man did they bust. Most areas got around 6 around here. They seem to be acknowledging the mistake on Facebook. The models weren’t great but many accidents could have been avoided with at least a WWA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 That blob over the lake thats approaching looks to be headed straight for you Matt and Me and Max as well but not you wolfie, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 These NW-WNW flow events can be real tricky so I'll be tracking this one, briefly before it ends up somewhere to my North or South and I'll be sucking true exhaust all day, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Looks like it's aimed for Fulton proper.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 I'm not sure. With the angle and way it's moving, it might mostly miss me just to the NE over you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 25 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Not saying it's right but it's there. WRF lost its love for kroc. What happened to my 7? Lol 1.4 sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Rgem for this evening band, somewhere from Central square to Mexico, only last an hour or two.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Models can have a very hard time with these set ups. Sometimes not much on south shore. Sometime a foot. Sometimes analogs are best shot at forecasting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 I "think" the snowpack (at least some) can survive several days of sunshine and 40 degrees for a "White" Christmas next week. Thinking lows in the 20s will help with that too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 1 hour ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: Oh man did they bust. Most areas got around 6 around here. They seem to be acknowledging the mistake on Facebook. The models weren’t great but many accidents could have been avoided with at least a WWA! I'm from the opposite camp on this one. You could have had any variety of warnings and I think the number of accidents would have been nearly identical. A WWA gives people a heads up; but the people in accidents were probably going to drive regardless of a warning or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Yes I agree, especially if we can do well tomorrow. Forecast lows in the single digits Thursday and Friday should help.. Also max temps don't last long in the winter, maybe a couple/few hours, once night falls we drop significantly and refreeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 What a nice little plume that is, almost looks a little like a meso low. That thing could drop couple inches in short order. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Definitely looks like some spin in there. It’s going to dump in the middle of that. I tried to post a gif from radar scope but got denied. I don't know how I can sometimes do it and not other times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Yeah, that's definitely a meso low and I think it headed straight for Aolfie but the bright yellows are headed straight for me, lol!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: Yeah, that's definitely a meso low and I think it headed straight for Aolfie but the bright yellows are headed straight for me, lol! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk That thing might be worthy of a Jeb Walk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Looks like it's just about to get going so I'll report what this things producing but so far very light stuff on the leading edge. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 I think the part where the most spin is, is where the snow may be the most heaviest, I would think no Delta?Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Look like the heaviest part is definitely headed to my North as usual, lol, but at least it was expected but I should get at least an 1" out of it I hope!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: I think the part where the most spin is, is where the snow may be the most heaviest, I would think no Delta? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk It's a good question. The front arm of the low seems to have strong convergence, but the center should technically have the strongest low level convergence and upward vertical motion. Once it begins to hit the shore it might kind of tighten up and collapse. Either way you are in a nice spot right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Another thing to note is that its not developing as much as its entering the radar beam. It probably is larger than we realize. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Heavy snow has commenced and I think its gonna get considerably worse as this this thing nears. This is the first Meso Low that I have experienced in the 15yrs that Ive been here. There is literally no wind as the snow is falling straight down. I'd say 1.5"/he right now.Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 I didn't even think that cause the beam is pretty far away so for the radar beam to be picking that up, those tops are quite high. Just checked, easy 2"/hr now and a long way to go!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 I still think the lion share of the heaviest snows will fall in Central Oswego county but I'm happy for it to be snowing period, lol!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 We get em occasionally in roc. Yup no wind in the just pours snow straight down huge flakes 3 inches a hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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