PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: WTF is the 3k seeing. 13” at kalb and nearly a foot just East of BUF? It’s a glitch . Bad glitch look st this . Bottom one is frame before yours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: Maybe I should check out the local mets instead of wolfie's posts. lol Hopefully we can get Lake Ontario to fire up with some nice cold air moving over it tomorrow. Time for SYR to catch up to BUF and ROC! And what post would that be? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 It's amazing all the crying done on this board when I should have double all your guys Snowfalls, do u hear me crying.. US avg 25" a year and we cry cause we only average 100 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Nice band over the St. Lawrence... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Too bad the southern portion is dying out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 No one talking about the LE potential? Wolfie, put out some maps for us to ogle over again! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polarbear Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 I see nws talking about a brief burst of 3-4”/hr rates E of Ontario... I need to get up to Watertown to drop a load of salt in the am. I can unload in literally 30 seconds so if I am up there around 5-530am and turn and burn back south should I be ahead of it? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 NWS likes the south shore set up. Advisory posted. I personally think the winds are a little too strong (although forecast wind speed has been reduced). My best events happen with a very light N/NW/NE wind and a sagging front. Usually wind within the band will turn south. It’s a super microclimate kind of thing. Rochester LES is next to impossible to forecast. Been a while since we had a good one! This set up is best for inland- Penfield/ Wakeorth/Palmyra/Fairport. Hannibal and Syracuse too (obviously). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Everyone winning in one way or another. Snow to date based on pivotal maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 34 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: It's amazing all the crying done on this board when I should have double all your guys Snowfalls, do u hear me crying.. US avg 25" a year and we cry cause we only average 100 We are junkies. And you’re the dealer. Haha 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: Everyone winning in one way or another. Snow to date based on pivotal maps I'm having a hard time buying that map for northern Erie. KBUF has been well-placed for a few events, and they're only at 25" (as of midnight, so add maybe 1" to 1.5" to that). And I'm a few miles west of the airport and have at most 60% of their snow. If the Pivotal map is that far off IMBY, then I'm sure it's off for much of the rest of NYS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 50 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: It's amazing all the crying done on this board when I should have double all your guys Snowfalls, do u hear me crying.. US avg 25" a year and we cry cause we only average 100 Dude...I was joking. I was referring to all the beautiful Kuchera maps you post. Didn't mean for it to come across as a personal attack. My apologies if it did. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 3-4” up in N.Falls/lewiston area yet no advisory was posted lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 4" here IMBY. Pretty tame storm and i agree the local mets and NWS handled this well, for here. Of course, as storms go, it was kind of a softball. But it did seem to throw more precip to the north compared to modeling...again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 We could see our first below zero night Thursday or Friday, if we can clear out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Our attention then turns to lake effect snow. Conditions will become marginally supportive tonight, then much more favorable on Wednesday as a strong cold front crosses the area. Lake induced equilibrium levels will rise steadily Wednesday morning as cold air pours into the region, peaking at around 15K feet on both lakes. The most favorable setup will be for just a few hours right around the time of the cold frontal passage. During this time, deep synoptic scale moisture will be available through a deep mixed phase layer, supporting large dendrites. Furthermore, strong convergence along the advancing cold front will combine with developing lake generated bands of convergence to create a brief period of strong convergence along the long axis of both lakes. Later Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night boundary layer flow quickly veers to northwest, with heavier lake snow closely tied to upstream connections. CIPS analogs are keying in on relatively high chances of warning criteria snow east of both lakes Erie and Ontario. Off Lake Erie... Expect light, upslope snow showers through the first half of tonight with minor accumulations along the Chautauqua Ridge and Boston Hills. By around midnight, boundary layer flow will back to the WSW, which should allow a band to consolidate along the shoreline from Chautauqua to southern Erie counties. This band may briefly make it as far north as the Buffalo southtowns and far southern Genesee County very briefly late tonight, before quickly moving back south again by 7AM Wednesday. A fairly strong band should briefly move southeast from southern Erie and Wyoming counties into the western Southern Tier as the lake band merges with the advancing cold front. This may drop some brief, heavy snowfall rates across the western Southern Tier Wednesday morning. The lake effect snow will then likely break up for a time from late morning through early afternoon following the passage of the cold front as boundary layer flow quickly veers more northwesterly. Following this brief lull, lake effect snow will re-organize as the upstream connection begins to develop to Lake Huron by late afternoon. This Lake Huron connection will initially set up from central and northern Chautauqua to western Cattaraugus late Wednesday afternoon. The band of heaviest snow should then move slowly southwestward as boundary layer flow continues to veer. This is a very complex scenario given all the band movement and the upstream connections. Warning criteria amounts will likely be closely tied to the upstream Lake Huron connection, making placement particularly difficult. Even so, the setup appears favorable for warning criteria amounts when the entire event is taken as a whole. Storm totals of 8-12 inches are expected, with a few locations possibly exceeding 12 inches if the Lake Huron connection stays in one spot long enough. With this in mind, we will go with a lake effect snow warning for Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties, with an advisory for southern Erie, Wyoming, and Allegany counties. Off Lake Ontario... Lake effect snow will develop southeast of Lake Ontario this evening across Wayne County. This area of snow will be relatively light given the marginal setup. The lake snow will then move quickly east into Oswego County late tonight, before weakening further at the east end of the lake by daybreak. Accumulations of 2-3 inches are possible tonight as this band moves east from Wayne to Oswego counties. Following a very brief lull around 10-12Z Wednesday, a band of snow will rapidly intensify over Lake Ontario as conditions improve with the approach of the cold front. Expect a band to rapidly intensify early to mid morning across central Jefferson County, then settle to the northern Tug Hill by late morning. The band may linger in this area for just a few hours, then progress quickly south across the rest of the Tug Hill region into Oswego County during the early afternoon. Latest high-resolution guidance such as the WRFNMM, WRFARW, and high-res window of the Canadian RGEM suggest the band may max out in intensity briefly across the northern half of the Tug Hill mid to late morning, with snowfall rates possibly reaching 3-4 inches per hour briefly. This will be a short lived event, with the band moving rapidly south and weakening during the afternoon. Following this brief intense phase of lake effect snow, a band will move or re-develop at the southeast corner of the lake by mid afternoon across Wayne/N.Cayuga/S.Oswego counties. An upstream connection to Georgian Bay is expected to develop during this time frame. The combo Georgian Bay/Lake Ontario band will then move westward along the south shore of Lake Ontario later Wednesday afternoon and night as boundary layer flow veers more northwesterly with time. The Georgian Bay connection should break down later Wednesday night, with snow becoming light but still fairly widespread southeast of Lake Ontario. Given the above expectations, accumulations may reach 8-12 inches across the Tug Hill region Wednesday, with a few spots over a foot if the band maxes out and stalls for a few hours. Fluff factor should be ideal given the thermal profiles. After that, northwest flow will spread 4-6 inches along the south shore from Orleans to southern Oswego counties Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night, including the Rochester area. Local warning amounts are not out of the question in this area if the Georgian Bay connection stalls for several hours. We will go with Lake Effect Snow Warnings for Jefferson, Lewis, and Oswego counties, primarily for the Tug Hill region Wednesday. This will be followed by advisories along the south shore from Orleans to Northern Cayuga counties including Rochester. Finally, between the main areas of lake effect snow the cold front will produce a few snow showers and snow squalls Wednesday morning across much of the region. A spray of Lake Huron snow showers is also likely across much of the region Wednesday afternoon and evening, with relatively light accumulations away from the main lake effect areas. Blowing snow will be common Wednesday and Wednesday night with wind gusts up to 40 mph on the lake plains, and 30 mph farther inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Snow is already extremely fluffy.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Astonishingly perfect snowflakes right now. Next 36 hours looks to be fun and part of the reason I moved here! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 2 hours ago, Polarbear said: I can unload in literally 30 seconds.......... Thanks Thanks for bringing back fond memories of my teenage years! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Big flakes under green returns again. Consistent snow for 10 hours now! Closing in on 6 inches! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Upstream trends off lake Michigan have exploded over the past hour or two...and on a SW wind ahead of the Arctic front...could be wild for an hour or two in the predawn hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Snow is already extremely fluffy.. We are up to other inch or so. By the time this swings thru maybe up to 2" additional snow. Will be fun to borrow it appears! Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Many schools around here cancelled evening activities. I was a bit surprised. Looks beautiful. Love love love fresh snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Upstream trends off lake Michigan have exploded over the past hour or two...and on a SW wind ahead of the Arctic front...could be wild for an hour or two in the predawn hours.Not seeing that SW flow bro... I’m not expecting us to see anything in the way of lake effect in the metro tomorrow morning. I like the NWS call that the band will hug the lake shore and maybe get as north as Hamburg OP East Aurora for a few inches. We will probably grab an inch around the city when the front moves through with a little squall line and the initial surge of added moisture. Should be a good event for the Chautauqua Ridge finally. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 That Radar map brings back memories. That was my radar view for the 10 years I lived in West Michigan. Beautiful place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Nice plume developing on sort of a WNW-NW, IDK but its forming nonetheless, lol, doubt its the beginning of anything substantial but one never knows around these here parts of the State. One of my favorite parts of the Winter Season are the passing of strong Arctic Fronts cause they cause the most havoc and tomorrow can be one of those days! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: Nice plume developing on sort of a WNW-NW, IDK but its forming nonetheless, lol, doubt its the beginning of anything substantial but one never knows around these here parts of the State. One of my favorite parts of the Winter Season are the passing of strong Arctic Fronts cause they cause the most havoc and tomorrow can be one of those days! Yes! Loving watching the mini-blizzards out the window and hearing all of the dramatics of the "normal" citizens... Just hopefully nobody is injured and people make wise choices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Man thats some Vodka cold right there! Man O Man I'm soooooo excited for tomorrow, cause that AFrontal boundary is gonna seriously agitate Lake Ontario, RLMAO!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: Yes! Loving watching the mini-blizzards out the window and hearing all of the dramatics of the "normal" citizens... Just hopefully nobody is injured and people make wise choices. I was hit by a large snowflake once. Not good. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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