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Upstate/Eastern New York

BuffaloWeather
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champy
champy

As an avid photographer, I have basically weekly images from the past 15 years...so it's a visual and digital journal. It's nice to go back and see how the years tend to compare. While some of us are

Geez150
Geez150

Long time lurker here in warm and snowless Caledonia. Though I offer no weather insight or knowledge I am a snowmobiler and therefore I am a die hard winter lover. Over the last year or two I have com

rochesterdave
rochesterdave

I’ve had the luckiest week of my life. Passed my MR Registry (medical imaging board), got an unexpected raise, had a great trip to Chicago. If this thing happens, after jumping on it early, I’ll

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Thinksnow18

Thinksnow18

Posted
Posted
Just now, rochesterdave said:

Close to a phase. It runs over SC instead of FLA- improvement!?! Lol. Xmas Eve miracle? Obviously, lots needs to happen. It’s still on the table. Torch looking waaay more likely. gem_z500a_us_30.png

Actually they explain there will not be a torch...in fact it's showing slightly AN temps just before and after Xmas before we get the PV to show up. 

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted 
Light snow is expected to spread north into the
southern Tier by midnight and move north-northeast into Tuesday
morning. Much of the North Country will remain dry overnight with
only snow showers moving north of the Mohawk Valley by sunrise
Tuesday. Snow will move into the North Country Tuesday morning while
continuing across western NY. Thermal profiles suggest drier air
entering the mid-upper levels and the loss of ice in the DGZ is
possible across inland Southern Tier counties Tuesday morning. This
may cause a brief period of freezing drizzle to mix in with snow.
This shouldn`t hurt snow accumulations as most snow will fall late
tonight into Tuesday morning for these areas. By 7AM Tuesday, snow
accumulations will range from 2-3 inches across inland areas of the
western Southern Tier and the western Finger Lakes. Less than an
inch is expected across the Lake Plains and east of Lake Ontario
which includes the cities of Buffalo, Rochester and Watertown. Low
temperatures will fall ot the mid to upper 20s and into the upper
teens on the Tug Hill overnight.

As low pressure tracks into New Jersey and off the southern New
England coast by Tuesday afternoon, the shortwave trough will
provide additional support for snow as moisture and lift increase
across the eastern Great Lakes. Snow will diminish from west to east
into Tuesday evening as the trough axis moves into western NY. Total
snow accumulations of 2-4 inches are expected across much of the
area with 1-2 inches across the Niagara Frontier, along the Lake
Ontario shoreline and across the northern Tug Hill region. Amounts
of 4-6 inches are expected across inland areas of the western
Southern Tier into the western Finger Lakes as they will see the
longest duration of snow. The Winter Weather Advisory remains as is
for Southern Erie county to Ontario county and south to include the
Southern Tier. Highs will range from the upper 20s to low 30s across
the higher elevations to the low to mid 30s across the Lake Plains
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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted 
The widespread synoptic snow from Tuesday will be exiting the
eastern Lake Ontario region early Tuesday evening. There will be at
least some limited lake effect snow developing in the wake of this
system as temperatures aloft become marginally cold enough.

Off Lake Erie...

Expect lake enhanced upslope snow showers to continue through the
first half of the night across the Chautauqua Ridge and Boston Hills
on northwest flow. Overnight, boundary layer flow will begin to back
to the west and southwest ahead of the next system. This will allow
the upslope snow showers to re-organize into a more shore parallel
band along the Chautauqua County shoreline after midnight. This band
will then move northward towards Buffalo by the pre-dawn hours of
Wednesday. The ever changing mode and location of the lake snow
should keep accumulations relatively light, with 2-3 inches possible
where the snow persists.

Off Lake Ontario...

Lake effect snow will organize in the evening over Wayne County in
northwest flow. Boundary layer flow will then back to westerly
overnight. This will push the lake effect snow eastward along the
south shore of the lake from Wayne to Oswego counties. The steady
movement of this band should also limit accumulations to the 2-3
inch range.

A very interesting setup then evolves for Wednesday. A very strong
and sharp mid level trough will move southeast across Ontario,
reaching New England Wednesday night. Despite the closed off 500MB
low, this system will remain very progressive. An associated cold
front will cross the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday morning. The cold
front will combine with pre-existing lake effect snow bands to
produce a brief burst of heavy lake effect snow east of the lakes,
and raise the possibility of fast moving snow squalls even inland
from the immediate lake effect areas.

Off Lake Erie...

Expect the band of lake snow to briefly make it up to about Buffalo
and Batavia. Note, this idea is north of most of the high resolution
model guidance, which often has a notable southward bias in these
situations. This will occur right during the morning commute. The
cold front will then capture the lake band and drive it rapidly
south and east through the western Southern Tier from mid morning
through midday. The rapid band movement during this time should keep
accumulations in the advisory range, even if the snow becomes heavy.
Expect accumulations of 3-5 inches on average for Wednesday where
the bands persist the longest.

Late Wednesday and Wednesday night boundary layer flow continues to
veer to the northwest. This will carry the lake effect snow into the
western Southern Tier, primarily Chautauqua and western Cattaraugus
counties. Mesoscale model guidance suggests an upstream connection
to Lake Huron will develop and enhance the snow in this area despite
the short fetch across Lake Erie. The upstream connection may
support an additional 3-5 inches in persistent bands. The lake
effect snow will begin to weaken later Wednesday night, then end
Thursday morning as high pressure builds over Lake Erie.

Off Lake Ontario...

Lake effect snow will re-organize to the northeast of the lake by
mid morning with the approach of the cold front. A combination lake
effect snow band and frontal squall will then move east across the
eastern Lake Ontario region late morning and early afternoon,
dropping a quick 2-4 inches, with 3-5 inches possible on the Tug
Hill with added orographic enhancement. By mid to late afternoon
boundary layer flow will become WNW, allowing lake effect snow to
focus southeast of the lake from Wayne to southern Oswego counties.

Wednesday night boundary layer flow will continue to veer to the
northwest. This will allow the lake effect snow band to move onshore
and back westward along the south shore, from Wayne County westward
to at least Orleans County, including the Rochester Metro area.
Mesoscale model guidance suggests an upstream connection to Georgian
Bay will develop during this time, enhancing the Lake Ontario snow.
This will bring a good chance of 3-5 inches across much of the south
shore of the lake from Orleans to Wayne counties, including the
Rochester area. There could be locally more if the band and upstream
connection stall for several hours in one location, but right now it
looks like this band will keep moving.

Northwest flow will maintain a spray of multiple bands southeast of
Lake Ontario through Thursday, but additional accumulations should
be light during this time as inversion heights lower, synoptic scale
moisture continues to decrease, and the Georgian Bay connection is
lost..
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SouthBuffaloSteve

SouthBuffaloSteve

Posted
Posted

Trying to find some excitement with this but just can’t... Think this is the first time this season the human is calling for something the models aren’t really showing.


Off Lake Erie...

Overnight, boundary layer flow will begin to back to the west and southwest ahead of the next system. This will allow the upslope snow showers to re-organize into a more shore parallel band along the Chautauqua County shoreline after midnight. This band
will then move northward towards Buffalo by the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday. Expect the band of lake snow to briefly make it up to about Buffalo and Batavia. Note, this idea is north of most of the high resolution model guidance, which often has a notable southward bias in these situations. This will occur right during the morning commute.
Expect accumulations of 3-5 inches on average for Wednesday where the bands persist the longest.


.

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Nam not as far north as the hrrr..But it's decent..Rates gonna suck but it will add up..

Obviously the Nam can sometimes be overly wet lol

4C5567E2-4BDE-45FF-B9D8-B74B0D3B9141.thumb.png.273969a75e3cdc8822214d4c6ebe42c3.png

2-4" here looks good. Although we're due to have a bone thrown our way.  You may do ok with whatever LES follows. Hills south of SYR probably stand best chance for 6" out of this. After this it looks like nap time till 2020...

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PaulyFromPlattsburgh

PaulyFromPlattsburgh

Posted
Posted

im really excited for this one. the trend is my friend. stronger, juicer, and more amped system. more typical SWFE. looks like it may give me a solid 2-4/3-5 over a nice 12-16 hour period. HRRR,NMM, and NAM have the low solid 3mb stronger more northwest precip expansion with a slower moving longer lasting system! hope it works out. i will be happy with even an inch considering i missed out on the last two storms! nothing beats watching snow fly in the air. at least i am not worrying about sleet and mixing like some folks. for me its a worry of how much i am going to get. how much moisture and lifiting will be available.

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, tim123 said:

Snow squall potential look good Wednesday. Lots of instability with that artic front. Could see alot of places getting a couple inches. Then some decent lake snows monroe county into fingerlakes.

Those usually dont amount to much. 15 minute blizzards, which granted, can cause chaos if you're out and about in it but leave not much more than a dusting.

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