TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just went for a Jeb walk. So nice out. Big fluffers hitting my face, ground covered by snow again, the smell of some fireplaces burning wood, checking out Christmas lights in the snow, and humming "Hark the Herald Angels Sing" to myself. Twas a nice walk... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Euro came in North, obviously on the northern fringes, 1"-3" at 10-1.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Looks like a general 1 to 2 on the Niagara frontier for this southern slider...more as you head south east and east of Buffalo...the lake effect looks good for W/NW flow for advisory to low end warning uplslope flow areas. The rest of us just wait to end of December early Jan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 So I've been looking at the snow totals area wide...when is the last time all the stations have had more synoptic snowfall vs. mesoscale YTD? Or more impressively, when is the last time we haven't had any LES events to speak of? This is a weird start for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Widespread synoptic snow will be ongoing Tuesday morning as a weak low tracks towards the Delmarva. As the low slides to our south, we will remain well within the cold side of the system. Additional snow amounts into Tuesday afternoon remain close to continuity and latest WPC guidance with 2-3" focused south of the Thruway and 1-2" to the north including the Buffalo, Rochester and Watertown areas. The low will deepen a bit as it moves approaches the New Jersey coast late Tuesday. This will pull the deeper moisture away from the area with the synoptic snow diminishing from west to east through the afternoon. Lake enhanced snow starts not too far behind the ending of the synoptic snow, as colder air starts to work into the area behind the departing low. The initial lake response will be muted, but will take on an uptick as we move through Tuesday night and into early Wednesday as moisture increases from an upstream shortwave trough and an approaching cold front. This sharp cold front will sweep through the region Wednesday morning bringing an arctic blast into the region. Strong cold air advection behind the front will send 850 mb temperatures plummeting to between -20C and -22C by Wednesday afternoon, producing extreme over-lake instability. A period of at least moderate intensity lake effect snow will develop during this time period. There may be a period late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning that the lake snows could focus northeast of the lakes ahead of the cold front, possibly as far north as the Buffalo metro area, but the west-northwest flow behind the front will quickly shift the lake snows southward into the Boston Hills, higher terrain of Wyoming county and the Chautauqua ridge for much of the day Wednesday. The lake effect snow should continue straight into Wednesday night before slowly diminishing in intensity as we get to Thursday morning, with the approach of surface high pressure from the Ohio Valley and associated dry air and subsidence causing inversion heights to come down. Accumulations at the stage look to be at least several inches and certainly plowable for areas east of the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 If the models continued this NE it would be decent, instead they all trek east-ene off the coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Models yesterday had it in mainly in northern VA, now starting to see it pop up in WV..One more little bump north/west and a moderate 3"-5" could be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 27 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: If the models continued this NE it would be decent, instead they all trek east-ene off the coast.. I can already say that is further north than most are forecasting...might only be an inch or two more than forecast but when you're nickel and dimeing to an ok snowpack every bit helps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 I'm loving the bump north showing up on the 12z runs. The lake Ontario counties may jump into the game on this one after all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Last minute 50 mile nw bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 9 minutes ago, tim123 said: Last minute 50 mile nw bump Dave in Rochester had mentioned this and it might just come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 May even see a little LEnhance on the tail end as well for the south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 I think Wednesday is shaping up to have multiple streamers of pure fluff in many areas. Think 25 to 1 ratio type snows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Rgem is becoming our kryptonite lol Still south with a similar track as the European.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Wednsday night 25 30 to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Looks like gfs in a tic north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Almost no break between systems, maybe couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Gets mix almost to syr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 12z coming in with the LP placement just south of PA so even further NW than 6z...but the precip shield on the northern flank still barely reaches lake Ontario shoreline, even though at the state line of NY and PA is mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Nam kuchera which nailed the last 2 events.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Not sure what u guys are seeing lol Almost identical to 6z and mixing is not even near ksyr.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 6z maybe a touch north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 It’s a whiff for BUF and Roc. Don’t trust the NAM qpf- it’s always too far north and too high. Another one...The fingerlakes elevation horse farms are getting all my snow. Do we have any Mennonites on here? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 It's not a complete whiff, just nothing special lol 1"-3" of snow showers over 12hrs.. Another thing I've noticed is the NAM/GFS really dry us out quick after the front, something to watch for.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Soon we can start following the trends on the hrrr.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Looks like a lot of moisture... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Snow totals for both systems.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Ukmet has a decent band Wednesday morning with the CF before it breaks apart due to the wind change.. After this not sure when the next threat is, may be a while lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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