Upstate/Eastern New York

[tim123]

Cool how you can see track of low on precip map

[tim123]

If it was just a tic colder would be a blockbuster

[rochesterdave]

5 minutes ago, tim123 said:

If it was just a tic colder would be a blockbuster

So true. 

[tim123]

979 mb over Burlington. Remember a few of them in the 90s. Usually works out well here

[rochesterdave]

ARW’s are colder and further East. 

[rochesterdave]

Whose staying up for the king? I know it’s a bit outta range- still curious. 

[tim123]

Euro gave roc 4.5 up from 3.5 at noon run

[rochesterdave]

Pretty good look. Big totals just west. 

[rochesterdave]

Surface temps are getting ugly. Shoot. Gnight- hope this turns around. 
 

[wolfie09]

Nam starting to fold.

 

3k

[wolfie09]

[wolfie09]

Not the late game trends you wanna see..

[wolfie09]

As the upper trough swings through, it will result in rapid
deepening of the approaching surface low as it tracks from eastern
New York into southern Quebec later today and tonight. Cold air
advection building into the region on the western side of the
deepening low will start to change the rain over to snow as
surface temperatures lower to near freezing. 00z GFS/NAM
profiles suggesting this will take place first over the higher
terrain of western New York between 18z and 21z, then gradually
makes its way down to lower elevations after 21z.

Snow to water ratios will be low through this evening, probably on
the order of 8:1, perhaps even lower, but improvement will take
place tonight as the column and surface grow colder. This will make
for a very wet snow that will make for difficult travel conditions
once it begins to accumulate on the roads.

In terms of snow amounts, the latest forecast brings an uptick to 5-
10 inches across the higher terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge, Boston
Hills, and Wyoming County with the highest amounts along the
Chautauqua Ridge with upslope enhancement later in the event and
where the change to snow first occurs this afternoon. We think that
most of the snow will fall within about a 9 hour time period or
so from 21z this afternoon through 06z tonight where snowfall
rates could reach or exceed an inch per hour. We have opted to
upgrade this area of western New York to a winter storm warning.
Continued with 3-5 inches across the lower elevations of
western New York, and 1-3 inches for points southeast of Lake
Ontario with a later change to snow.

East of Lake Ontario, the higher terrain of the Tug Hill plateau
looks to be in the 5-9 inch range, although depending on the
exact change over time and duration, localized higher amounts
are possible. Have opted to issue a winter weather advisory at
this time, with 2-4 inches across lower elevations. Most of this
will occur later tonight into Sunday morning once westerly
upslope and lake enhancement develop.

[wolfie09]

Nam kuchera shows ratios at 6/1-8/1 for majority of the event until the tail end..

Gonna need an inch liquid to see anything decent..

Looking like 1"-3" of slop for most unless u have some elevation. 

[Thinksnow18]

4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Nam kuchera shows ratios at 6/1-8/1 for majority of the event until the tail end..

Gonna need an inch liquid to see anything decent..

Looking like 1"-3" of slop for most unless u have some elevation. 

NWS still holding strong for 3 to 5 WNY lower elevations and 5 to 10 at hiher elevations...i also like the write up of moderate (thinking 4 to 7) for monday-Monday night.

[wolfie09]

I'm not sold on the Tues system either..

Euro, Ggem, icon and ukmet all south. We don't want LP going off the snj coast..

Gfs is the only model north. 

[wolfie09]

Maybe the hrrr is to warm but it gives credence to the rgem which has been on the warm train since day 1. 

Still going east of Ontario..

[tim123]

Take every flake. Not goin to complain. 

[wolfie09]

Still have a solid snowpack here, it's been through the ringer lol Rain, warmth, fog and still no grass since the end of November. I doubt we lose it a today before we receive new snow, we'll see. 

[tim123]

Dry windy sunny days are the snow eaters

[TugHillMatt]

2 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

I'm not sold on the Tues system either..

Euro, Ggem, icon and ukmet all south. We don't want LP going off the snj coast..

Gfs is the only model north. 

Those models look weak sauce for the Tuesday event, but at least they show a few inches of CLEAN snow for many of us. Any more powerful of a system like the GFS is showing and we'll somehow get stupid warmth pulled in to turn it into a mix event.

If we've got to nickle and dime our way to a decent snowpack, I'll take it.

 

[CNY-LES FREAK]

8 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Those models look weak sauce for the Tuesday event, but at least they show a few inches of CLEAN snow for many of us. Any more powerful of a system like the GFS is showing and we'll somehow get stupid warmth pulled in to turn it into a mix event.

If we've got to nickle and dime our way to a decent snowpack, I'll take it.

 

Ill take it, bro you pretty much better get used to it, cause that's how it happens here, every year!  Yeah, sometimes we'll get our 15-20"er's here and there but mostly from LE that takes 2 days to get there too, lol!  Unless your in a true snowbelt, like you were a couple yrs ago, Its quite rare around here to see sick rates either plus we're 400ft asl, lol, which is basically the surface, and not 1200' which would be sick if we had some damn elevation!  That happens quite often up at the Top of Onondaga Hill up near OCC, where in some spots there's a decent pack and get to the Turnpike and the snow is in patches, at best!  Then we're also in a super transition zone where as soon as the band hits the South Shore, it falls off and breaks apart even with a WNW flow which is best for the area you now live in. I'm 7-9 miles to ur NE and our weather are worlds apart!

[CNY-LES FREAK]

H700

I hope this true dry-slot stays over us all day, lol cause I think its gonna close off right over head, as is the 850 as well, cause at one pt during this event, it'll be snowing hard in KROC while its raining just as hard in KSYR, lol!

[CNY-LES FREAK]

Super strong convergence zone just to the West of KBUF that will hopefully become a nice trowal of S+ moving East at a snails pace later on this afternoon!  I seriously think KBUF sees some nice snows out of this, KROC, not as certain and KSYR much much later changeover, and by that time energy is pulling away, lol!

[CNY-LES FREAK]

998mb over the Delmarva and now shes gonna start to rapidly intensify but how fast is the question!

[CNY-LES FREAK]

Winds at H850 are now out of the NNE in KBUF but theres still lots going on! Very complex situation unfolding.

[wolfie09]

Ratios will be like 6/7-1 unless u have some elevation..

[wolfie09]

Syracuse may see just as much as Buffalo and Rochester..

[TugHillMatt]

17 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Ill take it, bro you pretty much better get used to it, cause that's how it happens here, every year!  Yeah, sometimes we'll get our 15-20"er's here and there but mostly from LE that takes 2 days to get there too, lol!  Unless your in a true snowbelt, like you were a couple yrs ago, Its quite rare around here to see sick rates either plus we're 400ft asl, lol, which is basically the surface, and not 1200' which would be sick if we had some damn elevation!  That happens quite often up at the Top of Onondaga Hill up near OCC, where in some spots there's a decent pack and get to the Turnpike and the snow is in patches, at best!  Then we're also in a super transition zone where as soon as the band hits the South Shore, it falls off and breaks apart even with a WNW flow which is best for the area you now live in. I'm 7-9 miles to ur NE and our weather are worlds apart!

I have noticed that already. The NW flow snow showers we've had so far this year seem to focus more across southwestern Onon. county. I figured WNW is best...which, of course, is harder to come by.

I have thought about living up in the Tully area, but have no desire to commute through Syracuse every day to work in Bville. The wife and I are looking between Bville, Phoenix, and South of Fulton. Increased opportunities for LES and closer to work...but not many desirable homes available.

[wolfie09]

Wnw flow are tricky though, more times than not it sits just north of Fulton from volney to parish..They need a WNW flow as well with more emphasis on the Westerly..