wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Many of the gefs members are colder than the OP.. About 15 of the members change us over by 0z while the OP is near 6z.. The members that have the earlier changeover have 6"+ while the ones that don't have a couple inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Those members look nothing like the operational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 But they look like the NAM lol Which changes us over between 0-1z.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 If it plays out like nam looking at 2 3 inch a hour rates for a few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 977mb... Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Don Paul Friday Evening Update: Soaking rain AM will give way to a transition to heavy, wet, & slushy snow in the afternoon, with increasing winds later in the day. Accumulations will be tied to elevation, with up to 4-7" by late in the day on the hills, and some higher terrain getting 8-11" by late evening. Even at lower elevations with marginal temps, 2-4" could fall by late in the day, with a few more inches in the evening. The strengthening winds will produce blowing snow and sharply reduced visibility by later in the day, causing travel hazards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, tim123 said: If it plays out like nam looking at 2 3 inch a hour rates for a few hours Dude looks good for WNY especially Genesee valley out to ROC. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 20 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Many of the gefs members are colder than the OP.. About 15 of the members change us over by 0z while the OP is near 6z.. The members that have the earlier changeover have 6"+ while the ones that don't have a couple inches. Some of those would be huge hits 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 BUF is probably happy tomorrow is Saturday...less a public impact with a big bust. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Vort remember march 1999. Kinda reminds me of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Vort remember march 1999. Kinda reminds me of that. Totally remember. Tons of rain, switch to snow, then 24" and a state of emergency in Monroe cty. 18"er 2 days later. Was that an anafront wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 This may be a mini one. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, tim123 said: This may be a mini one. Lol I'm in. I think this is gonna be a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Models have been so bad latley. If this was in new england or midwest there would be consensus. Seems like interior ne models suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Anyone got 18z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 I truly believe this is gonna be big. All depends on changeover timing. Diurnal warming is negligible. Once it turns, it’ll accumulate. I expect warning amounts Rochester west. Bristol hills could see BIG totals. I’m also seeing enhancement signatures along the south shore in some of the ensembles. I love a late breaker. All said, it could fall apart nearly as easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 hour ago, Syrmax said: KBGM going with an inch or two (of snow) in the higher elevations sat night into Sunday a.m. So there's that. The added bone-us is they are thinking the mon night/Tues system will track further west than previously thought, yielding more non-snow precip than previously thought. Here in the far north of their CWA...we'll see about that. I think those rat bastads from Rochester and Buffalo are stealing our snow again, that's what I think! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: I truly believe this is gonna be big. All depends on changeover timing. Diurnal warming is negligible. Once it turns, it’ll accumulate. I expect warning amounts Rochester west. Bristol hills could see BIG totals. I’m also seeing enhancement signatures along the south shore in some of the ensembles. I love a late breaker. All said, it could fall apart nearly as easily. If that LP spins up below 980 quickly, it'll be big. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 That's the key to this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Theres going to be a lot of rain and a lot of disappointed ppl on this board, I can see it now cause theres lots of warm air being drawn up from the S&E. The -4C and -6C isotherms are North of Lake Huron and are still moving North into SE Canada, just nuts!!The one place that I can see getting perhaps a full fledged snowstorm is KBUF as well as our Brethren in Toronto so good luck to them. CNY is absolutely toast, lol, and we're sitting at 34F but that's gonna change later on this evening as temps start to head the other direction, in a hurry too, in Mid December. What an absolute kick in the chestnuts, No?Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Would like to get OSU's take on this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 34 minutes ago, tim123 said: Anyone got 18z euro. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Ok, I’m getting interested now. Not usually a fan of wet snowstorms, but the dynamics of this jobber should be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 36 minutes ago, cny rider said: I think those rat bastads from Rochester and Buffalo are stealing our snow again, that's what I think! I hate when that happens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 30 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Theres going to be a lot of rain and a lot of disappointed ppl on this board, I can see it now cause theres lots of warm air being drawn up from the S&E. The -4C and -6C isotherms are North of Lake Huron and are still moving North into SE Canada, just nuts!! The one place that I can see getting perhaps a full fledged snowstorm is KBUF as well as our Brethren in Toronto so good luck to them. CNY is absolutely toast, lol, and we're sitting at 34F but that's gonna change later on this evening as temps start to head the other direction, in a hurry too, in Mid December. What an absolute kick in the chestnuts, No? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Anywhere east of Roc is screwed. Too close to the track. Roc is touch and go. I think enough cold air gets drawn in plus dynamic cooling. SYR in the screw zone...Matt...need I say more? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 The 18z NAM increased its QPF even further. The GFS and Canadian GEM are a little slower with the change to snow, and also have less QPF following the change to snow. Though the 18z runs from the GFS and Canadian trended SLIGHTLY higher in their QPF, they remain nowhere near as high as the NAM or to lesser extent the high res WRF or NMM. For instance, the 18z NAM in the 6 hour period ending at 00z Sun (when bulk of forcing with rapidly moving upper trough and sfc low moves out) has 0.75 to 1.15 inches of QPF over much of western NY while the GFS in that same time shows 0.40 to 0.60 inch and Canadian shows 0.50 to 0.75 inches. 12z ECMWF is more in line with the GFS. SREF is also not near as high as the NAM output, showing 0.20 to 0.40 inches of QPF. Would tend to put more faith into the NAM idea if the SREF was at least close in the ballpark. But, frankly it is not. For now, think a solution closer to the GFS/ECMWF, maybe tilted a bit toward more Regional Canadian may be way to go for QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Regional Canadian has 1" for Rochester.. Granted they were talking more about precip amounts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 But they don't mention the Lake effect potential on the regional.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Anything to forecast the least snow. That's buffalo for ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Sref 12 hr mean is 4"- 5" here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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