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Don Paul

Friday Evening Update: Soaking rain AM will give way to a transition to heavy, wet, & slushy snow in the afternoon, with increasing winds later in the day. Accumulations will be tied to elevation, with up to 4-7" by late in the day on the hills, and some higher terrain getting 8-11" by late evening. Even at lower elevations with marginal temps, 2-4" could fall by late in the day, with a few more inches in the evening. The strengthening winds will produce blowing snow and sharply reduced visibility by later in the day, causing travel hazards.
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I truly believe this is gonna be big. All depends on changeover timing. Diurnal warming is negligible. Once it turns, it’ll accumulate. I expect warning amounts Rochester west. Bristol hills could see BIG totals. I’m also seeing enhancement signatures along the south shore in some of the ensembles. 
I love a late breaker. All said, it could fall apart nearly as easily. 

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1 hour ago, Syrmax said:

KBGM going with an inch or two (of snow) in the higher elevations sat night into Sunday a.m.  So there's that.  The added bone-us is they are thinking the mon night/Tues system will track further west than previously thought, yielding more non-snow precip than previously thought.  Here in the far north of their CWA...we'll see about that.

I think those rat bastads from Rochester and Buffalo are stealing our snow again, that's what I think!

 

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1 minute ago, rochesterdave said:

I truly believe this is gonna be big. All depends on changeover timing. Diurnal warming is negligible. Once it turns, it’ll accumulate. I expect warning amounts Rochester west. Bristol hills could see BIG totals. I’m also seeing enhancement signatures along the south shore in some of the ensembles. 
I love a late breaker. All said, it could fall apart nearly as easily. 

If that LP spins up below 980 quickly, it'll be big. 

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Theres going to be a lot of rain and a lot of disappointed ppl on this board, I can see it now cause theres lots of warm air being drawn up from the S&E. The -4C and -6C isotherms are North of Lake Huron and are still moving North into SE Canada, just nuts!!

The one place that I can see getting perhaps a full fledged snowstorm is KBUF as well as our Brethren in Toronto so good luck to them. CNY is absolutely toast, lol, and we're sitting at 34F but that's gonna change later on this evening as temps start to head the other direction, in a hurry too, in Mid December. What an absolute kick in the chestnuts, No?

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

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30 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Theres going to be a lot of rain and a lot of disappointed ppl on this board, I can see it now cause theres lots of warm air being drawn up from the S&E. The -4C and -6C isotherms are North of Lake Huron and are still moving North into SE Canada, just nuts!!

The one place that I can see getting perhaps a full fledged snowstorm is KBUF as well as our Brethren in Toronto so good luck to them. CNY is absolutely toast, lol, and we're sitting at 34F but that's gonna change later on this evening as temps start to head the other direction, in a hurry too, in Mid December. What an absolute kick in the chestnuts, No?

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

Anywhere east of Roc is screwed. Too close to the track. Roc is touch and go. I think enough cold air gets drawn in plus dynamic cooling. SYR in the screw zone...Matt...need I say more? Lol

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The 18z NAM increased its QPF even further. The GFS and
Canadian GEM are a little slower with the change to snow, and also
have less QPF following the change to snow. Though the 18z runs from
the GFS and Canadian trended SLIGHTLY higher in their QPF, they
remain nowhere near as high as the NAM or to lesser extent the
high res WRF or NMM. For instance, the 18z NAM in the 6 hour
period ending at 00z Sun (when bulk of forcing with rapidly
moving upper trough and sfc low moves out) has 0.75 to 1.15
inches of QPF over much of western NY while the GFS in that same
time shows 0.40 to 0.60 inch and Canadian shows 0.50 to 0.75
inches. 12z ECMWF is more in line with the GFS. SREF is also not
near as high as the NAM output, showing 0.20 to 0.40 inches of
QPF. Would tend to put more faith into the NAM idea if the SREF
was at least close in the ballpark. But, frankly it is not. For
now, think a solution closer to the GFS/ECMWF, maybe tilted a
bit toward more Regional Canadian may be way to go for QPF
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