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Upstate/Eastern New York


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3 hours ago, Syrmax said:

It's still early, like the 1st Quarter of the game, but KSYR getting blitzed hard for the Golden Snowball.  Gonna need to make some halftime adjustments or we gonna get blown the f*ck out like the NY Giants.  ;) 

Buffalo is a first half team in the Golden Snowball Bowl, by the time the second half rolls around Lake Erie will be frozen solid and we'll have to dink and dunk our way to the end of the game.

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3 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

I’ve had the luckiest week of my life. Passed my MR Registry (medical imaging board), got an unexpected raise, had a great trip to Chicago.

If this thing happens, after jumping on it early, I’ll go buy a bunch of lottery tickets. 

Congratulations! Now all you need is days and days of northwest flow LES to cap off the year.

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There is still a high degree of model spread concerning snow amounts
for Saturday afternoon and night, especially across Western NY. The
12Z NAM, and all the high resolution NAM based guidance
significantly increased snowfall across Western NY, with much higher
QPF developing in the cold air later Saturday afternoon and evening.
The GFS and Canadian GEM are a little slower with the change to
snow, and also have less QPF following the change to snow. The past
few runs of the ECMWF are a compromise between the NAM and GFS based
guidance, and seems most reasonable. Cold advection to the west of
the deepening cyclone will only initially cool the column to a near
isothermal layer at or just below freezing Saturday afternoon and
evening. Surface temperatures will fall to near or just above the
freezing mark during this time. Given this scenario, snow:water
ratios will be low, likely less than 10:1 through early Saturday
evening before improving overnight as the column and surface grow
colder.

Given the above expectations, we have increased the speed of
changeover to snow in the new forecast, and also increased snow
amounts, but not to the extent of the NAM and high-res NAM based
guidance. The latest forecast is for 4-8 inches across the higher
terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge, Boston Hills, and Wyoming County
with the highest amounts along the Chautauqua Ridge with upslope
enhancement later in the event. We will start with a high end
advisory for now. It is possible some of this area may reach low end
warning criteria, especially if the forecast trends towards the more
aggressive NAM solutions. Went with 2-4 inches across the lower
elevations of Western NY, and 1-3 inches for points southeast of
Lake Ontario with a later change to snow. Again, if the more
aggressive NAM solution is correct these amounts will be higher.

East of Lake Ontario, the higher terrain of the Tug Hill plateau may
see 4-7 inches, with 2-4 inches across lower elevations. Most of
this will occur later Saturday night into Sunday morning once
westerly upslope and lake enhancement develop. This area may need an
advisory as well, but given ongoing uncertainties with this system
will hold off on the headline for now in this area.
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Next up, a southern stream system will develop across the Tennessee
Valley Monday. This system will track just to our south and east
into Monday night which would keep a majority of us on the northern
side of the low. We will again, be under the influence of the right
entrance region of a 150kt upper level jet while a deformation zone
develops across NYS Monday night. At this time, snow looks likely
Monday into Monday night however the track of the low is in close
proximity to NYS. Shifts in the track may bring in warmer air and
cut down on snow chances. Based on 12z 12/13 guidance, a few inches
is possible across the entire region through Monday night. High
temperatures will range from the upper 20s east of Lake Ontario to
the low to mid 30s across western NY Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pressure will strengthen as it reaches the Canadian maritimes
which will establish a cold northwesterly flow across our region.
850 mb temperatures will drop to around -20C which is plenty cold
enough to support lake effect snow into mid-week. The amount of
moisture will depend on how developed the mid level low and there
lies some model disagreement. There will be at least some lake
response Tuesday night and Wednesday which may linger into Wednesday
night. It will be a west to northwest flow during this period, with
the potential to produce significant accumulations depending on how
it plays out. Still way too early for specific snow amounts, but
stay tuned.
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3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Haha

I guess this is what happens when u flip earlier..

It would be nice if it had some backing lol

Just the NAM being the NAM..

sn10_acc.us_ne (71).png

The cold bias in this situation may not be unsubstantiated...especially with much guidance moving in its direction.

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Rain will change to wet snow late Saturday afternoon and continue
Saturday night. Light to moderate accumulations are possible, but
there is a good deal of uncertainty with respect to the timing of the
changeover to accumulating snow, and how much snow will accumulate.
There is a small chance of heavy snow accumulations if the snow
begins to stick earlier in the day.
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33 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Rain with a track like that is just laughable, seriously though!

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

KBGM going with an inch or two (of snow) in the higher elevations sat night into Sunday a.m.  So there's that.  The added bone-us is they are thinking the mon night/Tues system will track further west than previously thought, yielding more non-snow precip than previously thought.  Here in the far north of their CWA...we'll see about that.

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3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Obviously track dependent. The region 125-150 west of the LP is golden. BUF is way behind the curve on this one. Or, I’ll be made to look like an optimistic monkey- again. 

I'm thinking my area around SYR is going to do better than currently being advertised by KBGM.  But they've got a couple more model runs and actual storm obs all day tomorrow to make adjustments.  Probably "Travelers Advisory" snowfall here...with my area ending up with 2-4" after the changeover, which I think won't be a drawn out / delayed affair as the slp will be rapidly deepening, as others have noted.

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