wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Tues event quite marginal as well.. Granted were only talking about a few inches.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 46 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Tues event quite marginal as well.. Granted were only talking about a few inches.. That is a 3 to 6 Or 4 to 7 in WNY. That's a perfect deformation zone right over WNY. Plus most of that is at night away from diurnal effects Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Nam cold and wet bias at play? Lol Probably, shows 6+ for the entire region.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Nam is actually a little warmer here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Almost all that east of Ontario falls in a 6 hr period..3/4" liquid in 6 hrs is plenty heavy enough to cool the column.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 3k not nearly as friendly but looks good for WNY.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 I like it, NWS discussion is having none of it though lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 4 hours ago, rochesterdave said: Someone’s getting a foot. Agreed, someone in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 That is a sweet track. And deepening as is moves north. I am guessing 3 to 5 lake plain. 5 to 10 higher elevations. Would not be shocked if bristol moutain gets a foot and buffalo rochester barley get 3. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Some of the meso models get it down to 972 mb in northern ny. Could be a paste job. Intense 6 hour period of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Wind as well 40 to 50 gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Rgem on the warmer side of the envelope.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 It's all about track.. Rgem goes through onieda county while the Nam and euro are farther east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Damm the 3k nam looks sweet!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 12 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: Damm the 3k nam looks sweet!! Look even "in-house" models are showing this change over tomorrow afternoon to early evening...no one wants to bite but the message is clearly showing heavy rates of snow at that time for a good 4 to 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2019 Author Share Posted December 13, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 12z GFS fresh out...shows the same transformation all the other models are...i believe you're going to see a very different write up around 4pm today from the NWS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2019 Author Share Posted December 13, 2019 Yeah, nearly every model shows WWA snowfall for WNY. The event is tomorrow, KBUF messing up or thermal issues? Timing looks good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2019 Author Share Posted December 13, 2019 Newest analogs are out. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F036&rundt=2019121312&map=thbCOOP72 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 I bet they do a wwa for higher elevations only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2019 Author Share Posted December 13, 2019 4 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: I've begun to notice a trend that I think we're all going to like. The indices have not looked good recently and we've managed to stay average to slightly below average. The mid and long range has wanted to warm us up it seems 7 to 10 days out for about the last 2 week's. That signal is gone again. It now appears December will finish colder than normal with several opportunities for snow via synoptic and mesoscale. The Euro mid range was showing a PV split towards the Christmas time frame which would only enhance our chances going forward. Bottom line is when the indices do begin to go in the direction we like and we get an inevitable beat down of the PV I think January and February could be special. All ENS look really warm throughout entire USA aside from the NE from Dec 19-25. Hopefully its brief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 The way the tracks have been, ROC and BUF will get smacked while SYR once again gets rain or slop. Go with warmest track...always seems to work out closest to reality. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2019 Author Share Posted December 13, 2019 It should be brief though and it cools down as it heads east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Not much talk about lake effect potential but that's a good spot for the LP to be hanging out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 40+mm into the southern tug.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2019 Author Share Posted December 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Not much talk about lake effect potential but that's a good spot for the LP to be hanging out.. Was going to post this, the next week looks good for you wolf. You should get hit 2-3 times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Very active northern and southern branches of jetstream is a theme so for of the winter. Going to be some whoppers if it keeps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Gfs between both systems . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 19 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: All ENS look really warm throughout entire USA aside from the NE from Dec 19-25. Hopefully its brief. Yet somehow it's not reflecting in the ops runs...nor forecast temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 19 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: The way the tracks have been, ROC and BUF will get smacked while SYR once again gets rain or slop. Go with warmest track...always seems to work out closest to reality. It's still early, like the 1st Quarter of the game, but KSYR getting blitzed hard for the Golden Snowball. Gonna need to make some halftime adjustments or we gonna get blown the f*ck out like the NY Giants. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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