Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,589
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Upstate/Eastern New York


 Share

Recommended Posts

12 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Icon was a little colder..

Exact track matters a lot as well..

Some have it more towards CNY while others Eastern part of the state..

NWS mentioned a deformation axis yesterday..Who knows where that sets up..

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_19.png

 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_23 (2).png

Icon has consistently been the coldest model.


Perhaps we get lucky and blind Germans can find schnitzel?

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Comes through here much weaker and as all snow...in fact I figure the GFS will come around on Monday night-Tuesday's little storm and a lot if what's being forecast looks to be white up until Christmas. Quite the change from about 1 week ago when it was cutter after cutter after cutter.
Yeah, but it's still gonna fall in liquid form and not frozen. There is no cold air on this side of the pole thanks to our wonderful indices. We had a -NAO for the whole Summer practically and now it heads back to positive, lol until further notice, lol!

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why’s the nws discussion still calling for .75” of rain across wny?
Cause its gonna rain, lol, and whoever is praying that somehow the cold air, we so desperately need, will win out over the warmth that's being forecasted because that's not gonna happen cause there is no mechanism to tap it, simple as that! That's not gonna change either in 2 days so.....

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Cause its gonna rain, lol, and whoever is praying that somehow the cold air, we so desperately need, will win out over the warmth that's being forecasted because that's not gonna happen cause there is no mechanism to tap it, simple as that! That's not gonna change either in 2 days so.....

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

Gotcha. I asked because it seems every map being posted here is showing rain to snow, .75” is quite a bit of rain...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Cause its gonna rain, lol, and whoever is praying that somehow the cold air, we so desperately need, will win out over the warmth that's being forecasted because that's not gonna happen cause there is no mechanism to tap it, simple as that! That's not gonna change either in 2 days so.....

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

Well I wouldnt quite go that far.  The 540dm line is trudging through WNY on the tail end of this so marginally cold enough air isnt that far away.  Add some dynamic cooling from heavy precip, diurnal cooling, and elevation, and I would be surprised to see someone get 3-5 out of it.  Definitely not ideal by any stretch but we miss out on a sloppy wet snow event by a couple degrees.  Of course the cold biased NAM is showing the most optimistic of scenarios.   Areas in SW NY are obviously in the best spot.  CNY is a washout.   

Capture.thumb.JPG.b08284eee8f879e12ed2146992e7d9c7.JPG

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Cause its gonna rain, lol, and whoever is praying that somehow the cold air, we so desperately need, will win out over the warmth that's being forecasted because that's not gonna happen cause there is no mechanism to tap it, simple as that! That's not gonna change either in 2 days so.....

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

But I do agree, this storm isnt magically changing into a snow storm in two days.  But I think there could be some surprises further west with elevation involved

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some decent analogs for Sat Night event. Kind of hoping for a dud as I am in a wedding for my buddy Sat.

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F060&rundt=2019121212&map=thbCOOP72

Way out there but some decent analogs for good LES on W/WSW flow mid next week. Actually some really strong consensus for so early, you don't usually see this in the analogs this far out. Looks like Weds-Thurs timeframe. I'll be back 5 PM Thurs so expect a big event on Weds. :thumbsdown:

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F132&rundt=2019121212&map=thbCOOP72

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Euro came north for Tuesday, gfs went south..

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus (8).png

Yes they have come to a better consensus on a track. It appears it will be a track through Pennsylvania which may have the southern tier mix while the low goes by. All in all looking like a 3 to 5 for all...and the signal for LES looks good like BW pointed out. 

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Cold air advection will start to change the rain to snow as early as
Saturday afternoon, especially at higher elevations of the western
Southern Tier, as the surface low tracks north into southern Quebec
by Saturday evening. The low will continue to push northward while
deepening, pulling down much colder air behind it. This will
eventually change all the precipitation over to snow by Sunday. The
cold advection will lead to a period of lake enhanced snows east of
the lakes, before the synoptic moisture gets cut off by approaching
surface high pressure from the Ohio valley Sunday night.

The highest snow accumulations are expected across the higher
terrain east of the lakes where the change over to snow occurs the
quickest and lake enhancement occurs. In these areas, could be
looking at amounts as high as 4-6 inches, perhaps as much as 3-4
inches across the Bristol Hills. Temperatures will remain marginal
at lower elevations with accumulations likely limited to an inch or
less.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I've begun to notice a trend that I think we're all going to like. The indices have not looked good recently and we've managed to stay average to slightly below average. The mid and long range has wanted to warm us up it seems 7 to 10 days out for about the last 2 week's. That signal is gone again. It now appears December will finish colder than normal with several opportunities for snow via synoptic and mesoscale. The Euro mid range was showing a PV split towards the Christmas time frame which would only enhance our chances going forward. Bottom line is when the indices do begin to go in the direction we like and we get an inevitable beat down of the PV I think January and February could be special.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...