rochesterdave Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Definitely a bit cooler than I expected. HRR is initializing 3 degrees cooler at SYR than it had forecast just 4 hrs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 43 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: Major icing going on in BUF right now and all the NWS has us for is WWA wtf lol? What are their criteria for ice storm warning? Airplane off the taxiway at KBUF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 H700 causing all sorts of issues to the S&W of the Cuse! critical thicknesses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 This is extrapolated because we don’t launch balloons here. But seems fairly accurate. Surface is a bit colder. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, tim123 said: Cool storm to watch evolve. Think there will be some surprises good or bad. Especially when coastal form and interacts with ull in ohio Yeah. A couple of the smart guys on the forum mentioned that yesterday. This storm is tricky. Roc has a DOUBLE challenge for forecasting: the front end p-type and later, the western cutoff. That fujiwara nonsense is way over my head (it probably happened once). Does the secondary tuck or is it a spread out mess? Tim, good point on heavy stuff changing sleet to snow- that’s what’s been happening up in Irondequoit. I know SE ROC is having a mess with frz rn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Mesoscale Discussion 2184 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2019 Areas affected...Portions of western/central PA...far western MD...and southwestern NY Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 011045Z - 011645Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain, with rates in excess of 0.05 inch per three hours, will become increasingly likely through the morning. DISCUSSION...A band of precipitation being aided by strengthening low-level warm and moist advection will develop across much of the Mid-Atlantic this morning. This precipitation will overrun a residual near-surface sub-freezing layer that extends across much of the Northeast and into parts of western/central PA and the higher terrain of far western MD. As surface temperatures cool to the wet bulb temperature with continued low-level moistening, freezing rain will become increasingly likely across much of this region. Freezing rain rates in excess of 0.05 inch per three hours appear probable, although substantial ice accretion may be limited by near-freezing surface temperatures. Somewhat better potential for both higher rates and ice accretion will likely exist across the higher terrain of western PA/central and far western MD, where surface temperatures in the upper 20s to around 30 F should be present. With the exception of the higher terrain, freezing rain should gradually transition to rain from southwest to northeast across western PA through the morning as low-level warm advection continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Lots of yellows coming through the area in the next few minutes or so and we'll see what type of precip is falling beneath those returns! S+ right now with strong NErly winds howling fiercely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Snowing moderately here right now. No signs of PL but a few snow grains are mixed in. My deck is covered and grassy surfaces are getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 We stay all snow, which is what I expect, with this first batch, then all bets are off, we thump and thump hard tonight into most of the day Monday!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Finally an event that we don't have to worry bout mixing. What a relief! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Still waiting for first flakes here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Puking snow in Skaneateles. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Still waiting for first flakes here.. And we have flakes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 KBUF'S Aviation discussion does hit the freezing rain, sleet threat that could have a significant impact on airport ops...and there is a Travellers Advisory posted for inclement conditions on untreated surfaces. Started snowing around 1030 as I was finishing up electrical repairs on my neighbors horse fence. Good flake size almost since start. Yuge flakes right now after a brief period of smaller dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Moderate snow here in my new home (new wife) in Cazenovia. Ground covered....A ping every 20 seconds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Upgraded to a warning, snow totals pretty much the same.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Upgraded to a warning, snow totals pretty much the same.. This means Freak can have a proper snowstorm now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Airplane off the taxiway at KBUFLot of ice on the leading edge of the wings and back off the flaps. Tricky flying weather today for sure! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 RLMAO as I called it yesterday that they would pull this stunt of first posting WAA the when they see he actual weather not panning out as they expected they default to WSW, lol, great way to cover their buttocks, lol! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Snowing heavily now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattny88 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Per the NWS they just upgraded to a winter storm warning for oswego county...6-12 inches..Wolfie i live within the city of oswego..do you think our location is a tad to far north to get into the real deformation banding zone that they are calling for down south closer to the syracuse area..i just didnt know if that westward jog on the models brought the heavier precip. further northwest to include the lake shore communities..how much you projecting snow amounts for us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Even the plows are having trouble. State DOT truck rolled over on route 33.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 A true snowstorm for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Ground got white quick.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Odd that BGM seems to have lowered the totals on their updated snowfall map. Near Dunkirk now. Heavy rain and mid 30s. I will post updates as we trek east on the Thruway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Doesn't hurt we got done to 11.4° overnight under clear skies, feels like a heat wave, relatively speaking.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 If this projected lull doesn't come to fruition and it continues to snow then some of those absurd totals may be reached! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Lot of ice on the leading edge of the wings and back off the flaps. Tricky flying weather today for sure! . My son flew back to get to his Navy base this morning at 6am out of KSYR. I was originally groaning a month ago when I heard the flight time (I'm not a 4 a.m. person) but as events transpired, was a good plan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Odd that BGM seems to have lowered the totals on their updated snowfall map. Near Dunkirk now. Heavy rain and mid 30s. I will post updates as we trek east on the Thruway. When you get here, you will witness a full fledged snowstorm that has just started and I'm sure you'll be a happy Camper! cause I am, and I never am, lol!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Visibility is less than 1/4 mile right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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