Vicarious Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 12 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: I don’t think they tweak the hour by hour runs at all as you’ll hear the say pretty often that they think the model is off because of this or that... If they could add their own input they would. Not sure about the specifics but I know back in the day 4 use to mention using the RPM as the data set for their graphics. Now they just refer to it as their in house model. It would make sense as the RPM runs off the ARW which had similar output on the 12z run. The map Todd used was not the hi res output they showed earlier in the day so in my opinion his map could be more user input adjusted vs just straight computer output. . thanks for the response. A lot of things in weather seem to shrouded in mystery, or seems that way to amateur who finds this stuff interesting so I'm always thankful for information Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Decent band in NE Ohio Looking at this radar loop, does that band continue into NW PA and SW NY? Is there no radar in that area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 17 minutes ago, schinz said: Looking at this radar loop, does that band continue into NW PA and SW NY? Is there no radar in that area? It does. Cleveland radar is pretty much blind for most lake effect once it’s onshore into NW PA. Need to look at Buffalo radar. After the whole Erie PA snow gate scandal of 2017 the Buffalo radar angle was lowered to try and better capture lake effect bands over that area. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Similar to icon, Canadian is showing a transfer to heavy snow on back side of the possible Miller A. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2019 Author Share Posted December 11, 2019 45 minutes ago, schinz said: Looking at this radar loop, does that band continue into NW PA and SW NY? Is there no radar in that area? Can see it a little bit better with this radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Upstream already looks good can’t wait to see what that band would look like in the morning with full fetch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2019 Author Share Posted December 11, 2019 Everything is pretty much on schedule. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Well one more set of runs soon and then it’s go time. Like the forecast call so far from BUF. Should be an easy 3-5” everyone in metro to get in. Maybe a spotty 6” out near the airport. I think the biggest impact will be the band plowing back south in the afternoon. Wouldn’t be surprised to see that brief burst be 3”/hr+ rates. Also concerning are the winds that will come along with the bands return. Gusts are now up to almost 50 mph along the shoreline. I think there will likely be a 30-60 minute time frame of blizzard like conditions around the metro. Could also see BUF throwing up a snow squall warning for the trip south to cover this brief but impactful band. BUF AFD- The band may be briefly strongduring the midday/full fetch time period with aided lift fromthe upper level trough. The mobility of the band will limittotal snow amounts, but it`s important not to underestimate theimpact a brief intense snow band can have.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Everything is pretty much on schedule. I’ll take it. Solid 6 hours on that for me in the heavier parts of the band. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2019 Author Share Posted December 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: I’ll take it. Solid 6 hours on that for me in the heavier parts of the band. . Such a disappointment after it had the potential to be a blockbuster 4-5 days ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 3 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I'd go with a nice fresh dusting, 4-6 is an absolute joke! Yeah, they lowered totals as of 650 pm.. Originally it looked like a wnw-nw flow tomorrow night into Thursday which is no longer the case.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Bahaha...the area that was "supposed" to get the heaviest band in WNW flow now gets the least of anywhere in Upstate NY. So far, this year's lake effect events off of Lake Ontario have been yawnilicious...just like last year. Are you guys sure Lake Ontario joins in on the fun of Lake effect? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 31 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah, they lowered totals as of 650 pm.. Originally it looked like a wnw-nw flow tomorrow night into Thursday which is no longer the case.. And they raised it to 5" for buffalo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Just noticed that Niagara county was added to the WWA group from 8am to 3pm for 3 to 5...northern Erie is now 3 to 6...slight uptick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 2 year anniversary of the snow game to end all snow games. The pinnacle sporting event that I've ever attended 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 That is an awesome stillshot of the flag and snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Surprised. Picked up a quick 1-2 inches of snow here in Geneva from lake effect. Wasn't really expecting much. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Yankees just signed Cole for 324 million dollars over 9 years It's not my money lol They desperately needed an ace. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Euro still has some wrap around/enhancement over the weekend.. As well as the Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Euro for Monday night-Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Good hit on euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 The band looks like it's going to fly right by the metro this morning in about the next hour and settle into Niagara and Orleans counties for the majority of the morning. At that rate I'm seeing maybe an inch or two at best. On the flip side hopefully the euro is right about next week's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: The band looks like it's going to fly right by the metro this morning in about the next hour and settle into Niagara and Orleans counties for the majority of the morning. At that rate I'm seeing maybe an inch or two at best. Relax TS!! Lol. Band just started here within the last half hour and we already have an inch no joke. This thing is ripping HUGE flakes straight down with no wind. It’s unreal how quick it’s adding up. At this rate we will have 3 inches or more before the band lifts north and then we still have it’s trek southward this afternoon! Just enjoy it, I haven’t seen such nice flakes in a long long time and there’s nothing better than when it comes straight down with no wind! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Definitely close to 2” an hour!!! At 615 AM EST, A band of lake effect snow producing snow fall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour is located from Angola and Hamburg inland across the Boston Hills and western Wyoming County. This band of moderate to heavy lake effect snow will move north into the Buffalo Metro area by 7 AM. Travel conditions will deteriorate quickly from south to north across the metro area as the morning commute begins. This includes Interstate 90 between exits 57A and 48A, Route 219 from Orchard Park to Boston, and Route 400. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Beginning to snow here in Williamsville and yes Dev these flakes are not going to have a problem accumulating! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 New map.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Ripping out there this morning! Wish I would have woke up a little earlier. Does look like the band is moving north to fast and is going to end up on the north side of the metro by 8am.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 1 minute ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Ripping out there this morning! Wish I would have woke up a little earlier. Does look like the band is moving north to fast and is going to end up on the north side of the metro by 8am. . It has been snowing here but still just a dusting...it appears the heavier returns are right near the lake shore up to few miles inland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 I guess Fulton now does well with a west wind lol They are forecast more than me tonight lol Snow. Areas of blowing snow before midnight. Low around 19. Breezy, with a west wind 18 to 23 mph decreasing to 8 to 13 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 47 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: The band looks like it's going to fly right by the metro this morning in about the next hour and settle into Niagara and Orleans counties for the majority of the morning. At that rate I'm seeing maybe an inch or two at best. On the flip side hopefully the euro is right about next week's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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