Upstate/Eastern New York

[wolfie09]

What no 3k Nam and it's 0.7" for Buffalo lol

I hate this damn model .

Now watch it verify lol

[Thinksnow18]

4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

What no 3k Nam and it's 0.7" for Buffalo lol

I hate this damn model .

Now watch it verify lol

Well it's already wrong because it's not showing anything over the western side of lower Michigan

[CNY-LES FREAK]

With the way things are looking, I'll give us about a 30% chance of a white Christmas this year and for this area, that is not a big number unfortunately but that's what we get for way below normal temperature regime and an above normal snowfall regime during the month of November!

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[wolfie09]

I know bro,  it's the worst model we have. Lol

It was more tongue and cheek..

[Syrmax]

1 hour ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

With the way things are looking, I'll give us about a 30% chance of a white Christmas this year and for this area, that is not a big number unfortunately but that's what we get for way below normal temperature regime and an above normal snowfall regime during the month of November!

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

A lot of "New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible..." in your forecast starting today... but the  vaunted KBUF map has you in the  4-6" range.  Personally, i'd take the under...  

 

[Thinksnow18]

The ARW model south buff showed a little bit ago might be on to something...the latest AFD supports those a of 7" not being out of the question for northern Erie specifically metro Northtowns...blowing and drifting will become an issue and the afternoon commute could be rough.

[wolfie09]

44 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

A lot of "New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible..." in your forecast starting today... but the  vaunted KBUF map has you in the  4-6" range.  Personally, i'd take the under...  

 

They see something they don't like, probably the 3k Nam lol

Previous forecast this morning had 3"-5" Wednesday evening..

[wolfie09]

An interesting lake effect event will be unfolding tonight through
Wednesday night.  Confidence in timing and location is fairly high,
but amounts and intensity is not quite as high.

Weak lake effect processes are now underway generally as expected
downwind of Lake Erie with low-topped convection capped at ~7000`
with very dry air above that level.  This is resulting in light
accumulations toward the Chautauqua Ridge this afternoon.
Temperatures at cap level will continue to slowly drop through the
night but with little or no increase in available moisture as seen
by numerous but lackluster upstream horizontal convective rolls over
MI.

East of Lake Erie...

Early this evening, westerly flow along the Chautauqua Ridge
and sufficient lapse rates supportive of lake effect processes
will result in a period of lake effect snow through the evening
hours. An advisory is in effect for traditional westerly flow
regions (portions of Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties), but snow
rates overnight may be somewhat unimpressive due to the initial lack
of available moisture and still cooling airmass, followed by backing
winds overnight that will begin to disrupt any nocturnal
consolidation.  Do not expect much more than an inch or two in these
areas.

The more interesting event will occur near sunrise as the band heads
north (during the commute) across the Southtowns, and then into
Metro Buffalo during the morning.  Some strengthening of the mostly
singular band is expected during this time with full lake fetch. The
band should reach its northern extent by midday, probably just
clipping SE Niagara County and part of Orleans County before heading
back to the south as the main upper level trough finally moves in.
There remains uncertainty on the strength and duration of the band
while it lingers over/north of Metro Buffalo and into the
Northtowns.  But, once it starts to move, it should quickly head
south, with the entire lake band swinging south (and/or being pushed
into the shoreline), blowing past the Southtowns, and back into the
Southern Tier.  The band may be briefly strong during the
midday/full fetch time period with aided lift from the upper level
trough. The band should then begin to weaken later Wednesday evening
after losing adequate fetch while the airmass aloft continues to dry
out.

The lower confidence in amounts is compounded by the possibility of
blowing snow.  This should may help keep snow amounts down some, but
it will also result in a relatively impactful day in terms of
travel.  While not a banner event by any means, this event should
still be troublesome for some.  As such, a fairly strongly worded
advisory remains in place.

Most areas should end up with a an inch or two as the band moves
north, followed by another inch or two as the band moves south.
Highest amounts should be over Northern Erie County where the band
lingers the longest.  It`s possible some areas could exceed 7" if
the band lingers before heading south, but the emphasis for this
event should be focused more in impact from blowing snow rather than
amounts.

East of Lake Ontario...

A lake banding will probably have a hard time getting established
until late tonight ESE of Lake Ontario due to the above noted
limited moisture availability.  Some consolidation is expected
during Wednesday as flow backs, with a better defined lake band
forming by afternoon with Lake Erie serving as its upstream
connection.  Once this is established, a lake band should be roughly
over the St Lawrence Valley.  But with continued limited moisture
and less than ideal fetch, snow rates and corresponding snow amounts
should be low, at least until the band starts moving back south
toward the more traditional/long fetch east of Lake Ontario in the
afternoon.  An upstream multi-lake connection should then be
established ESE of Lake Ontario by Wednesday evening together with
the coldest air aloft.  This may result in the best opportunity for
snow rates of 1-2"/hr, but only for a relatively short duration
Wednesday evening.  Increasingly dry air aloft should weaken lake
bands overnight.

Similar to downwind of Erie, areas east of Lake Ontario will be
under an Advisory with blowing snow possibly leading to as much of
an impact as snow amounts.  In general, expect snow amounts to be
fairly tame over this traditionally hard-hit region, with most
locations staying under 7".  Highest amounts should be over the Tug
Hill and toward Oswego County (mainly late Wed-->Wed eve), with
less, possibly much less elsewhere

[Buckeyes_Suck]

So much shear right now.

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

My point and click just got upped from 3-5 to 3-7. Think NWS does see some additional potential with that band tomorrow. Those winds are going to be a huge factor as that band moves back south. Depending on timing could be a very problematic PM commute.


Wednesday
Snow showers, mainly before 5pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Patchy blowing snow after 9am. High near 30. Windy, with a west wind 11 to 16 mph increasing to 23 to 28 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.


.

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Calls from the locals as we move under 24 hours out. Channel 4s in house has a nice hit for the metro. 7 is out to lunch on this one.






.

[Buckeyes_Suck]

Ill lock in that 7" right over clarence

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

And then Don Paul just tweeted he’s only seeing 1-3” for the city...



This is gonna be a fun event to track tomorrow with so much uncertainty...


.

[wolfie09]

Last couple AFD has mentioned"lake enhancement". 

[wolfie09]

I wouldn't think that would be all rain but who knows lol

[wolfie09]

[tim123]

Weekend system may end as a thump of snow

[wolfie09]

The northern stream portion of this phasing system mentioned above
will likely cross the eastern Great Lakes Saturday night into
Sunday. Colder air deepening across the eastern Great Lakes and
H850T falling to -11C/-13C will bring the potential for lake effect-
enhanced snows east of the lakes. Otherwise, lows Saturday night
will fall back into the low 30s by daybreak Sunday morning.
Temperatures on Sunday will likely not change all that much with
highs in the mid 30s for most locations.

The system will move out into the Canadian Maritimes Sunday night
and Monday. Colder air continuing to filter into the Great Lakes in
its wake will continue to support lake effect snows east and
southeast of the lakes

[CNY-LES FREAK]

3 hours ago, Syrmax said:

A lot of "New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible..." in your forecast starting today... but the  vaunted KBUF map has you in the  4-6" range.  Personally, i'd take the under...  

 

I'd go with a nice fresh dusting, 4-6 is an absolute joke!

[WNash]

1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Calls from the locals as we move under 24 hours out. Channel 4s in house has a nice hit for the metro. 7 is out to lunch on this one.






.

Santos just put up a map that looks more like channel 7’s totals.

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Calls from the locals as we move under 24 hours out. Channel 4s in house has a nice hit for the metro. 7 is out to lunch on this one.






.

Is there even as such a thing as "in house models". Do news stations really have that much capital to make their own weather model with collective balloons and data analysis? I'm pretty sure it's just derived from a mixture of the high res models.

[BuffaloWeather]

Decent band in NE Ohio

[wolfie09]

[ayuud11]

18z Hi-Res Brazilian model shows foot of snow for BUF. Can’t post link sorry..

[Thinksnow18]

43 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Decent band in NE Ohio

I also have to chuckle that the models always have a 5 or so mile southern bias earlier in the season when the lake is warmer. That is a really nice band. Im feeling someone buffalo north is getting 6+ tomorrow

[Vicarious]

34 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Is there even as such a thing as "in house models". Do news stations really have that much capital to make their own weather model with collective balloons and data analysis? I'm pretty sure it's just derived from a mixture of the high res models.

I always wondered how they generate their in house models as well. Something like weather models are extremely demanding and actually really need to be done using quantum computers, NOAA just got a upgrade last year to their super computer which is cool to see. What I think probably happens is they have some sort of program that allows them to import some generated model. After it's imported they can then adjust certain things like wind direction and thats what you see them using. They can do this on their computers since they are't trying to predict the weather, they are basically telling it what they want. 

[Thinksnow18]

18 GOOFUS has joined the south trend with next Tuesdays storm...keeps us in the cold side.

[wolfie09]

U sure your looking at the gfs lol

Cuts west of us, all mix/rain for wny. 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

I always wondered how they generate their in house models as well. Something like weather models are extremely demanding and actually really need to be done using quantum computers, NOAA just got a upgrade last year to their super computer which is cool to see. What I think probably happens is they have some sort of program that allows them to import some generated model. After it's imported they can then adjust certain things like wind direction and thats what you see them using. They can do this on their computers since they are't trying to predict the weather, they are basically telling it what they want. 

I don’t think they tweak the hour by hour runs at all as you’ll hear the say pretty often that they think the model is off because of this or that... If they could add their own input they would. Not sure about the specifics but I know back in the day 4 use to mention using the RPM as the data set for their graphics. Now they just refer to it as their in house model. It would make sense as the RPM runs off the ARW which had similar output on the 12z run. The map Todd used was not the hi res output they showed earlier in the day so in my opinion his map could be more user input adjusted vs just straight computer output.


.

[TugHillMatt]

Getting a steady snowfall here in the north SYR burbs right now. Starting to cover things...looks like Rochester is getting some good snowfall right now based on webcams.