Upstate/Eastern New York

[wolfie09]

1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

As a snowcover fan too, It's hard to get too excited about lake effect snow when you know it will just melt again with next weekend's thaw. Lack of -NAO during winter has been killing the winters of 2010s.

Until the Negative NAO suppresses everything..haha

I think a little bit positive is a good thing lol

Usually what's good for the coast is not good for us..

[wolfie09]

Going to be hard to get warning criteria anywhere with the band on the move.. Unless we have strong rates. 

 

[lakeeffectkid383]

38 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

It did give the metro and or just south into the southtowns the best chance on Wednesday for warning criteria snows.

I can’t find one run right now that shows any warning criteria snows anywhere let alone the Southtowns. Good thing is it’s still early and as quick as things turned for the worst the could turn back the other way though doubtful. Just not impressed at all with the parameters of this event. Seems like virtually all things working against us except for what that shortwave passes Wednesday we may have a little “Arctic front” burst of snow but I know I’m not expecting more than an inch or two in West Seneca. It’s seems like a slow start to the season for us but we’re actually right at about average to date however if things don’t turn around soon we are gonna be in the departures. Fine by me though because now I’m a mailman and having to walk 12 miles a day through whatever the weather is. Give me a day like today everyday and I’m happy. Upper 30s and sunshine is perfect walking weather. I can’t believe I’ve turned to the dark side now but unless we get a whopper with cheese let it be warm and sunny!

[wolfie09]

Gfs text output, low level wind direction..

All over the place..

[wolfie09]

The one thing I'll say about that is the global models aren't the best at qpf for lake effect snow. Euro for example usually only shows trace amounts..

Look at last event, pretty sure no global had 1-1.5" liquid for the buffalo area lol

 

[wolfie09]

Valid till Wednesday am..

[rochesterdave]

I’m sad to be losing the snow cover over the next few days. Here in Rochester, we’ve built up a nice little base of 6-10” depending on your location. The eastern suburbs got a little fluff two nights ago, with nearly 3” falling in the usual Penfield, Walworth area and 1” up along the shore.
It will be no match for the rain and near 50 temps rolling at us.
Long term does look interesting. Cranky is advertising possible interior storm just before Christmas- and he’s usually spot on.
Should got my Christmas trees already. Working today...


.

[lakeeffectkid383]

1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

The one thing I'll say about that is the global models aren't the best at qpf for lake effect snow. Euro for example usually only shows trace amounts..

Look at last event, pretty sure no global had 1-1.5" liquid for the buffalo area lol

 

Yeah except the NAM did and the NAM has next to nothing so far for this event. 

[wolfie09]

Yeah but I doubt it did from 84 hours out lol

Look at the last 2 runs for the synoptic wave ..

It can't nail down synoptic I doubt it can with lake effect ..

[wolfie09]

Nam is also a 12km model, not that much of a"high Rez" model to me lol

Euro is 9km...We hardly pay attention to lake effect on that model..

Gfs is 13km , not much of a difference here..

Maybe I'm missing something lol

[wolfie09]

Both gfs and Ggem have a SW flow out ahead of the northern stream disturbance, Wednesday afternoon. 

[wolfie09]

Ukmet out till Thursday morning has very little east of Ontario..

Likes Erie much better..

[ayuud11]

2 hours ago, WesterlyWx said:

I can’t find one run right now that shows any warning criteria snows anywhere let alone the Southtowns. Good thing is it’s still early and as quick as things turned for the worst the could turn back the other way though doubtful. Just not impressed at all with the parameters of this event. Seems like virtually all things working against us except for what that shortwave passes Wednesday we may have a little “Arctic front” burst of snow but I know I’m not expecting more than an inch or two in West Seneca. It’s seems like a slow start to the season for us but we’re actually right at about average to date however if things don’t turn around soon we are gonna be in the departures. Fine by me though because now I’m a mailman and having to walk 12 miles a day through whatever the weather is. Give me a day like today everyday and I’m happy. Upper 30s and sunshine is perfect walking weather. I can’t believe I’ve turned to the dark side now but unless we get a whopper with cheese let it be warm and sunny!

Bro keep an eye out on Wednesday afternoon in to the evening, the setup looks decent on the Canadian i think the Goofus is out to lunch with LES so far this season idk what's going on with it..

[ayuud11]

That's a perfect setup for BUF it might be brief but those winds are lined up perfect with some decent moisture available from the passing shortwave.

 

[ayuud11]

[Syrmax]

Bring on the WNW flow.  We never get titanic totals here but 2-6" always appreciated.  The prolonged SW or W flow events are usually non-event here.

 

12Z GFS absolutely gruesome. Next 3 synoptic systems all rain events.  So till at least mid month it's pretty much looking like a yawner, per GFS.

[TugHillMatt]

1 hour ago, Syrmax said:

Bring on the WNW flow.  We never get titanic totals here but 2-6" always appreciated.  The prolonged SW or W flow events are usually non-event here.

 

12Z GFS absolutely gruesome. Next 3 synoptic systems all rain events.  So till at least mid month it's pretty much looking like a yawner, per GFS.

Another gruesome December? It's the new norm.

[Thinksnow18]

GFS looks better towards the 20th timeframe onwards...in fact we might see a nice synoptic Christmas present.

[wolfie09]

Lake effect snows beginning late Tuesday afternoon and continuing
through Wednesday night...

Right now, it just doesn`t look like there will be a decent lake
effect response initially or even significant snowfall in the long
run. While the air mass will grow colder with time (H850T -12C/-13C
by 00Z Wednesday), other factors will be working against well
organized and intense lake effect snows. First and foremost, there
is a lack of deep synoptic moisture behind the front. It`s a fairly
dry air mass behind the front and then profiles show some decent
shear. Finally, the BIGGEST factor is residence time. Per 12Z
guidance and incorporating all the above factors, expect a weak lake
response east of both lakes beginning late Tuesday afternoon and
then continuing Tuesday night. Lake effect snows will likely focus
across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie and Ontario with light
accumulations occuring overnight.

Wednesday, a shortwave and associated low will race by to our north
through Quebec Canada. Wind flow ahead of this feature will back
winds more to the southwest directing lake snows off Erie to the
north into the Southtowns and Buffalo Metro area. Off lake Ontario,
lake snows will get redirected across central Jefferson county. Lake
snows are still expected to remain fairly weak ahead of this feature
as it travels north. As was previously said, convergence occuring
along the cold front with the clipper may merge with the lake effect
snows which may yield greater intensity for a few hours Wednesday
afternoon. Boundary layer flow will then become westerly by
Wednesday evening in the wake of the clipper, carrying lake effect
snow into the western Southern Tier off Lake Erie, and the Tug Hill
region off Lake Ontario. Flow then becomes northwest later Wednesday
night, with weakening lake effect snow spreading out southeast of
both lakes.

The peak intensity of this lake effect snow event will likely be at
and just after the passage of the clipper, Wednesday afternoon and
evening. The most favorable conditions are relatively brief and the
bands will be in motion, which will limit the potential for heavy
accumulations in any one location. Warning criteria snow is possible
during this time window if the bands become strong enough, but
confidence is low given uncertainties with respect to placement,
intensity, and longevity of the heavy snow.

[lakeeffectkid383]

14 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

GFS looks better towards the 20th timeframe onwards...in fact we might see a nice synoptic Christmas present.

GFS always looks better 2 weeks out. We’d be having a fantastic winter if the 2 week GFS output was ever right lol.

[rochesterdave]

I’m gonna be focused on the period just before Christmas. Looks like a reasonable opportunity. Sorry that LES thing fell apart. It’s fun to see who comes out of the woodwork for those events. 
I can’t imagine the excitement those must generate. It’s a whole different beast. I get pumped for 1/2”/hr rates. Lol

[wolfie09]

LR 18z Rgem starts out with more of a wnw flow, more "Westerly" than "northerly"

Valid 18z Wednesday

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

At least the good ol BTV gives some hope...




.

[tim123]

I am willing to bet there is a 6 hour period buffalo gets hit good.

[tim123]

49 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I’m gonna be focused on the period just before Christmas. Looks like a reasonable opportunity. Sorry that LES thing fell apart. It’s fun to see who comes out of the woodwork for those events. 
I can’t imagine the excitement those must generate. It’s a whole different beast. I get pumped for 1/2”/hr rates. Lol

I know dave. 3 inch hour rates is max roc area gets.

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

This upcoming event reminds me of one very similar almost same date last year.



4-8” across Erie County. Also similar as the AFD mentions the snow band may merge with convergence along the cold front as it swings through Wednesday afternoon. That happened with this event and it gave us a pretty intense but very short lived burst. Timing almost looks identical right now too affecting both the AM and PM commute around the metro. No blockbuster this week but might give us a few fun hours of tracking.

.

[BuffaloWeather]

Went to a house party last night in Lancaster, was shocked at how much snow they had on the ground there and the piles. We've had just grass here for awhile. They must have gotten hit pretty hard from that LES event. Went to the Bills game today, they played so well against the best team in the NFL. This team is actually legit, if Allen played decently we win that game. Lake effect event looks lamer every model run.

[lakeeffectkid383]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Went to a house party last night in Lancaster, was shocked at how much snow they had on the ground there and the piles. We've had just grass here for awhile. They must have gotten hit pretty hard from that LES event. Went to the Bills game today, they played so well against the best team in the NFL. This team is actually legit, if Allen played decently we win that game. Lake effect event looks lamer every model run.

You mean if the offensive line actually somewhat protected him today and his receivers actually caught the ball. Don’t get me wrong Josh didn’t have his best game, but I hate when people blame one person especially when he had no interceptions, took an absolute beating out there running for his life when a blitz pickup was missed or his rookie TE completely whiffs on a block and gets him absolutely crushed on his blindside causing a fumble and his receivers had over 5 drops, a couple coming in critical times. The whole offense kind of laid a dud today, play calling included. 

[BuffaloWeather]

3 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

You mean if the offensive line actually somewhat protected him today and his receivers actually caught the ball. Don’t get me wrong Josh didn’t have his best game, but I hate when people blame one person especially when he had no turnovers, took an absolute beating out there running for his life when a blitz pickup was missed or his rookie TE completely whiffs on a block, and his receivers had over 5 drops, a couple coming in critical times. The whole offense kind of laid a dud today, play calling included. 

Taken from the Bills forums but this is a good break down on Allen today, he was pretty bad.

"Allen was downright awful in the first half.  While Baltimore's defense got pressure at times and even caused a fumble, Allen still had plenty of throws with time and to guys who were open.  On the first three drives, he had a player open 20+ yards down field and missed him by almost 5+ yards each time.  On two of them, I got the impression that Allen was assuming the receiver was going to break a different way.  Regardless, two of them could have gone for touchdowns.  If he hit even one of them, it's a very different game.  In the second half, Allen had at least two plays where he held onto the ball for 5+ seconds and took a sack.  one of them knocked us out of Field Goal range today.  But like I said earlier, others contributed to his bad game with key drops.  Knox dropped a pass because he was already looking downfield, but we still got 3.  Singletary dropped one because he got excited about the open field ahead of him if he could beat one guy.  Beasley technically dropped a deep pass, that yes a millionaire receiver should catch, but was still not easy.  Overall, Allen hits just 10% more of his passes and we are either tied at the end or winning.  He played bad against a good defense and I think even he will tell you that.  but again, we had the ball with a chance to tie by the end."

That sack at the end of the game...We were 3rd and 3 and he took a sack that resulted in a 14 yard loss. You have 2 plays to get 3 yards...He HAS to get better at throwing the ball away.

[lakeeffectkid383]

13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Taken from the Bills forums but this is a good break down on Allen today, he was pretty bad.

"Allen was downright awful in the first half.  While Baltimore's defense got pressure at times and even caused a fumble, Allen still had plenty of throws with time and to guys who were open.  On the first three drives, he had a player open 20+ yards down field and missed him by almost 5+ yards each time.  On two of them, I got the impression that Allen was assuming the receiver was going to break a different way.  Regardless, two of them could have gone for touchdowns.  If he hit even one of them, it's a very different game.  In the second half, Allen had at least two plays where he held onto the ball for 5+ seconds and took a sack.  one of them knocked us out of Field Goal range today.  But like I said earlier, others contributed to his bad game with key drops.  Knox dropped a pass because he was already looking downfield, but we still got 3.  Singletary dropped one because he got excited about the open field ahead of him if he could beat one guy.  Beasley technically dropped a deep pass, that yes a millionaire receiver should catch, but was still not easy.  Overall, Allen hits just 10% more of his passes and we are either tied at the end or winning.  He played bad against a good defense and I think even he will tell you that.  but again, we had the ball with a chance to tie by the end."

That sack at the end of the game...We were 3rd and 3 and he took a sack that resulted in a 14 yard loss. You have 2 plays to get 3 yards...He HAS to get better at throwing the ball away.

I will agree with you he has to get better throwing the ball away especially when in field goal range to make sure your not pushing your team out of field goal range. He missed some throws he could have made but regardless of why his receivers still had key drops in key moments. Him missing the wide open receivers seemed more like miscommunication of where his receiver was going to be in his route than just flat out throwing errantly. Like I said before I’m not saying he didn’t have a bad game but there’s way more blame here then just Allen. The entire offense including Dabolls play calling was not good at all. How many times did we go 3 and out with a predictable run on 1st down, run on 2nd down, throw on 3rd and long and then punt? Numerous times, including right after the Edmunds interception. To me that’s poor play calling and certainly has an effect on what they can do when Baltimore knows what they are going to do and can bring the house on a Blitz knowing it’s going to throw Allen off with poor blocking up front...