cny rider Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 Deep winter vibe here today. 23F with mostly cloudy skies, breaks of sun, and flakes always in the air. The snow is deep and the XC skiing was fantastic. Closing the blinds Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 Not much showing up on the European, outside of a little lake effect snow.. Several opportunities for rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2019 Author Share Posted December 7, 2019 22 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: That's dry powder bro.. I’ve driven in everything with this car Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 15 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Not much showing up on the European, outside of a little lake effect snow.. Several opportunities for rain. So it appears the earlier op runs were right...hopefully end of December and January are much better than this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 1 hour ago, cleetussnow said: My wife has continental terraincontact A/T on her Xterra Pro 4 x. https://www.tirerack.com/tires/tires.jsp?tireMake=Continental&tireModel=TerrainContact+A%2FT&partnum=77SR8TCATOWL&vehicleSearch=true&fromCompare1=yes&autoMake=RAM&autoYear=2017&autoModel=2500 4WD Crew Cab&autoModClar=LT275%2F70-18 or LT285%2F60-20 i found them to quiet on the highway and nothing has stopped it whether it’s mud or snow. AT tires usually suck at something and good at everything else. These are good at everything. This truck also has a rear locking diff and really matters. I have a Ram 2500 with the standard transforce highway tire. Everyone says they suck and they might in fact suck, but they are good on the highway and I haven’t had any issues with the 4wd on so far. I tow a snowmobile trailer up by the tug so I’ve seen some crap. I am thinking once the front wheels are engaged all the engine weight and cab weight make up for marginal tires. I am tempted to get the continentals. I need 2 new tires and it’s cheaper to put the transforce back on instead of a set of 4 new continental tires. I wonder which vehicle is the better as a snow chase vehicle. The xterra is pretty insane 4wd with the lockers especially. It’s light and maneuverable. The ram has a much higher clearance and is very very planted and gives confidence. But if the ram goes off the road somehow, it could be 7500lb problem. Hmmm. No matter what these vehicles are pretty able. I got some ideas about testing them. My 4Runner has a center locker and limited slip in the rear. The A-TRAC System simulates a locked rear by applying brakes to the slipping rear tire. Pretty effective from what I hear. I’m just afraid that I’m limiting my potential by having these cheese ass tires. who knows, they might surprise me. it’s kinda fun to get into the nuts and bolts of how these vehicles work. I did not know Nissan had a locker on the xterra. Cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 Binghamton With low level flow veering westerly Wednesday to eventually northwesterly Wednesday night-early Thursday, we can anticipate lake effect snow showers for much of the region with perhaps more significant accumulations occurring north of the New York Thruway. The air mass appears quite supportive of lake snows with the dendritic growth zone down in the heart of the mixed boundary layer. This will be figured out with more certainty in coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vicarious Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 31 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: My 4Runner has a center locker and limited slip in the rear. The A-TRAC System simulates a locked rear by applying brakes to the slipping rear tire. Pretty effective from what I hear. I’m just afraid that I’m limiting my potential by having these cheese ass tires. who knows, they might surprise me. it’s kinda fun to get into the nuts and bolts of how these vehicles work. I did not know Nissan had a locker on the xterra. Cool The biggest thing is having a locking center diff/transfer case. For pick-ups a locking rear doesn't really do all that much more then a limited slip rear end. Having a front locking diff isn't really something you can use for winter driving because steering is kind of next to impossible. For anyone that goes chasing I HIGHLY HIGHLY recommend a kinetic tow rope. It's kind of like a bungie cord allowing for a running start when your pulling/getting pulled out and really allows for smaller vehicles to pull out larger ones. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 40 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: My 4Runner has a center locker and limited slip in the rear. The A-TRAC System simulates a locked rear by applying brakes to the slipping rear tire. Pretty effective from what I hear. I’m just afraid that I’m limiting my potential by having these cheese ass tires. who knows, they might surprise me. it’s kinda fun to get into the nuts and bolts of how these vehicles work. I did not know Nissan had a locker on the xterra. Cool I don’t know if all xterras have it. It’s a pro 4 x, the last model year xterra. I used it once in a snowbank. The trick is you have to have it on before you get into the problem area. It went over the bank like nothing. I have to look and see what the ram situation is. It might be limited slip or some other thing. All I know is that when you turn with the 4wd on it will buck if has it has too much grip. Seems like a locker. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 5 minutes ago, Vicarious said: The biggest thing is having a locking center diff/transfer case. For pick-ups a locking rear doesn't really do all that much more then a limited slip rear end. Having a front locking diff isn't really something you can use for winter driving because steering is kind of next to impossible. For anyone that goes chasing I HIGHLY HIGHLY recommend a kinetic tow rope. It's kind of like a bungie cord allowing for a running start when your pulling/getting pulled out and really allows for smaller vehicles to pull out larger ones. Plus 1 on kinetic tow rope. I have recovery straps and hooks front and back. I want a bungee rope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2019 Author Share Posted December 7, 2019 Much colder air will pour into the Great Lakes region Tuesday night through Wednesday night. There remains the potential for heavy lake effect snows east of Lake Ontario during this time period. Much colder air will pour into the Great Lakes region Tuesday night through Wednesday night. There remains the potential for accumulating lake effect snows east of Lake Erie during this time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2019 Author Share Posted December 7, 2019 ...ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS POSSIBLE BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON... MUCH colder air will rapidly filter in as cold air advection ramps across the Lower Lakes. This will likely spin up the lake effect snows off both lakes beginning Tuesday afternoon and continue through Wednesday night. Now for the details... Arctic air mass will rapidly spill in behind a strong cold front on Tuesday. While the air mass will definitely be cold enough to provide the necessary over lake instability (H850T -12 to -13C), there are some parameters that won`t be favorable for a MAJOR event. First and foremost, residence time of the lake effect bands off Lake Erie and Ontario will be limited at any one location. Right now it appears the bands will be moving around quite a bit which will limit snowfall accumulations. Next, guidance has been fairly persistent showing a fairly dry air mass behind the front and this system lacks that deep synoptic moisture to maximize snowfall. Now this isn`t to say there won`t be some decent accumulations, especially east of Lake Ontario where upstream connections will come into play. It also can be said that this might be some of the coldest air so far that we`ve seen this season. A second re-enforcing shot of Arctic air on Wednesday will send H850T down to -18C/-20C, with an associated shortwave providing some moisture which will enhance ongoing lake snows. Otherwise, there still remains quite a bit of uncertainty with this event, especially in terms of specific band placement and timing. Stay tuned as things could change. In terms of temperatures, highs on Tuesday will actually occur just after midnight. Daytime temperatures will fall into the 30s behind the front. Lows Tuesday night will be in the upper teens to low 20s by daybreak on Wednesday. Wednesday, highs will average 10-15F below normal with temperatures peaking in the low to mid 20s. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Lake effect snows will be ongoing Wednesday night with additional accumulations. Surface high pressure over Tennessee and Ohio will build into the Lower Lakes into Thursday. Winds will begin the gradual shift from west-northwesterly Thursday morning, to more southwesterly by late in the day Thursday. Although this will signal the beginning of the warm advection process, it will be a slow one. Temps aloft will still be plenty cold enough to support a lake response, though will be quite muted when compared to the previous as shear and continued drier air (lowering cap) come into play as well. Will most likely see the typical south to north `sweep` of the lake bands as winds slowly back from west- northwest to southwest Thursday into Thursday evening. Any lingering snow showers northeast of the lakes Thursday night will become even more sparse by Friday as progressively warmer air continues to push in aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 Partly cloudy, with a low around 17. Calm wind becoming southeast 5 to 8 mph after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 Left Pulaski it was 19° , got home 10°, difference of 6 miles.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 4 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Binghamton With low level flow veering westerly Wednesday to eventually northwesterly Wednesday night-early Thursday, we can anticipate lake effect snow showers for much of the region with perhaps more significant accumulations occurring north of the New York Thruway. The air mass appears quite supportive of lake snows with the dendritic growth zone down in the heart of the mixed boundary layer. This will be figured out with more certainty in coming days. Updated AFD . Not as encouraging lol Long term is generally a tranquil period with a slow warm up. Some lake effect snow showers are possible early on, then The upper trough and surface high slides east allowing for a southwest flow to develop bringing increasingly milder air into the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 If the front was just 12 hours slower lol Cmc leading the way here, euro, Nam following.. Won't mean much for us unless it has an effect on the wind direction.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Could be a little surprise on south shore. Couple inches. Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 NWS dropped the ball with low temps tonight, down to 7 imby.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 NAM brings some good snow behind that front for East Central NY. Just picking up the LES at the end so next few runs I’ll be interested in following.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 55 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: NWS dropped the ball with low temps tonight, down to 7 imby.. Yeah I noticed this IMBY too, I'm guessing skies were a little clearer and winds a little lighter. And with this fresh snowpack, radational cooling was really maximized. WAA is ongoing aloft though so I expect temps may rebound a bit overnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Our attention then turns to lake effect snow potential. Over the past several days, the setup shown by model guidance has looked steadily less impressive, with numerous wind direction changes and periods of shear and dry air limiting potential. While we expect accumulating lake snows, the potential for a truly major event looks to be off the table at this point A mid level shortwave and associated clipper low will pass by to the north of our area Wednesday. Lake effect snow showers will move north ahead of the clipper as boundary layer flow backs. This will carry the Lake Erie snow north into Buffalo, and possibly north of Buffalo briefly. Lake Ontario snow will move into central and northern Jefferson County. It should still be relatively weak during the trip northward. Lake snows will then move back south with the passage of the clipper, and likely intensify as cold air deepens and lake instability increases. Convergence along the cold front of the clipper may merge with the lake effect snow and yield greater intensity for a few hours Wednesday afternoon. Boundary layer flow will become westerly by Wednesday evening in the wake of the clipper, carrying lake effect snow into the western Southern Tier off Lake Erie, and the Tug Hill region off Lake Ontario. Flow then becomes northwest later Wednesday night, with weakening lake effect snow spreading out southeast of both lakes. The peak intensity of this lake effect snow event will likely be at and just after the passage of the clipper, Wednesday afternoon and evening. The most favorable conditions are relatively brief and the bands will be in motion, which will limit the potential for heavy accumulations in any one location. Warning criteria snow is possible during this time window if the bands become strong enough, but confidence is low given uncertainties with respect to placement, intensity, and longevity of the heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 It has been a rare full week of classic winter weather in the Catskills. Snow showers accumulating 1-3” every day on top of a decent (though underperforming in my particular location) initial storm and resulting snowpack. Forecasted low of 10° last night but temp fell to -3° for at least two hours this morning. We have friends coming over with their kids to play in the snow later today when it should be sunny and 30°....perfect winter weather for six kids who are 6yrs old or under! Then the meltdown commences. This is the true theme of winter around these parts nowadays. Build a decent snowpack over a few days, maybe a week, then wash it away in 24-48hrs. Not complaining, just noting the reality of winter now. We have to be ready to play as soon as it snows or we’ll miss the opportunity. Just have to hope it falls near a weekend! I hope everyone who has snow on the ground can get out and enjoy it today! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 57 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Our attention then turns to lake effect snow potential. Over the past several days, the setup shown by model guidance has looked steadily less impressive, with numerous wind direction changes and periods of shear and dry air limiting potential. While we expect accumulating lake snows, the potential for a truly major event looks to be off the table at this point A mid level shortwave and associated clipper low will pass by to the north of our area Wednesday. Lake effect snow showers will move north ahead of the clipper as boundary layer flow backs. This will carry the Lake Erie snow north into Buffalo, and possibly north of Buffalo briefly. Lake Ontario snow will move into central and northern Jefferson County. It should still be relatively weak during the trip northward. Lake snows will then move back south with the passage of the clipper, and likely intensify as cold air deepens and lake instability increases. Convergence along the cold front of the clipper may merge with the lake effect snow and yield greater intensity for a few hours Wednesday afternoon. Boundary layer flow will become westerly by Wednesday evening in the wake of the clipper, carrying lake effect snow into the western Southern Tier off Lake Erie, and the Tug Hill region off Lake Ontario. Flow then becomes northwest later Wednesday night, with weakening lake effect snow spreading out southeast of both lakes. The peak intensity of this lake effect snow event will likely be at and just after the passage of the clipper, Wednesday afternoon and evening. The most favorable conditions are relatively brief and the bands will be in motion, which will limit the potential for heavy accumulations in any one location. Warning criteria snow is possible during this time window if the bands become strong enough, but confidence is low given uncertainties with respect to placement, intensity, and longevity of the heavy snow. This sucks. Was looking forward to a decent event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Pretty much a run of the mill lake effect event.. Starts out SW and ends NW .I guess at least most get a taste lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Gfs now has a long duration LES event mid month, which will disappear by next run . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Spread the wealth event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 As a snowcover fan too, It's hard to get too excited about lake effect snow when you know it will just melt again with next weekend's thaw. Lack of -NAO during winter has been killing the winters of 2010s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 43 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Pretty much a run of the mill lake effect event.. Starts out SW and ends NW .I guess at least most get a taste lol The lake regions haven't really been getting good lake effect snow lately. The pattern hasn't really been cold enough. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 42 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs now has a long duration LES event mid month, which will disappear by next run . I'm definitely going lake effect chasing one day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 8, 2019 Author Share Posted December 8, 2019 Lake effect event went south pretty quick. every model run since a few days ago has gotten worse. The low to the east that keeps coming closer each run is messing it up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Lake effect event went south pretty quick. every model run since a few days ago has gotten worse. The low to the east that keeps coming closer each run is messing it up. It did give the metro and or just south into the southtowns the best chance on Wednesday for warning criteria snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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