wolfie09 Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 10 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: yeah except that S/W will bring the lake snows into the metro for a time...on the flip side how do we get rain from a low pressure over the east coast??? That would be a snowstorm not rain storm. Normally it would, especially wny but I think it has something to do with that lakes low.. Winds straight out of the south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2019 Author Share Posted December 6, 2019 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Normally it would, especially wny but it has something to do with that lakes low.. Winds straight out of the south. The winds change direction due to shortwave north of lake superior. You can see the dropping heights there. High res will better pinpoint this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2019 Author Share Posted December 6, 2019 As we get closer there are a few things to worry about that weren't there before. Dry air immediately following the passage of the low and shear due to quickly changing wind directions if that shortwave shown in GGEM happens the way it shows. Very early but no longer thinking blockbuster event, but definitely LES Warnings for everyone including northern Erie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: As we get closer there are a few things to worry about that weren't there before. Dry air immediately following the passage of the low and shear due to quickly changing wind directions if that shortwave shown in GGEM happens the way it shows. Very early but no longer thinking blockbuster event, but definitely LES Warnings for everyone including northern Erie. On a side note, thanks so much for your analysis all the time. I very rarely post, but appreciate you and other posters very much. I am going to be at Peek N Peak in Chautaqua County from this evening till Wednesday about noon and am hoping I get stuck there for a day or two more!!! I am looking forward to tracking this the next few days! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: As we get closer there are a few things to worry about that weren't there before. Dry air immediately following the passage of the low and shear due to quickly changing wind directions if that shortwave shown in GGEM happens the way it shows. Very early but no longer thinking blockbuster event, but definitely LES Warnings for everyone including northern Erie. For now im alright with that...we still have several weeks of opportunities after that before the lake begins to freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 Heaviest snow of the event so far as the back edge approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 About an inch here so far but it’s a very wet almost springlike snow. I wouldn’t be surprised if the ratio is 10:1 or less. Still snowing, 33 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2019 Author Share Posted December 6, 2019 Looks like WSW winds on the Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 Big ole wet parachutes falling here in Hannibal, coming down pretty damn good. Couple inches so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2019 Author Share Posted December 6, 2019 That's some really cold air too, extreme instability. Dry air moves in by Thurs which should cancel the LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 Well my wind storm has up and vanished like a fart in the wind. Now I set my eyes to possibly chasing lake effect South of Buffalo next week. I've got some PTO I need to use before the end of the year.....hmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2019 Author Share Posted December 6, 2019 Michigan mentions the possible issues with the LES event well. A cold front will blast through the area Monday night changing the precipitation over from rain to snow rather quickly. The lake effect snow machine will commence Monday night and continue probably right into Thursday. The main time frame of concern for lake effect snow will be Tuesday, Tuesday night and Wednesday. Delta T`s in this time frame will be high to extreme in the 20C to 30C degree range. Moisture depth is decent, but it is a bit lacking over time. Looking at the 850mb to 700mb layer which is where lake effect events separate themselves from ok to significant, the moisture is rather weak, less than 70 percent. That said, lake effect will occur and we will turn the lakeshore white again where the snow has melted. Of bigger concern will be travel issues that develop as highs on Wednesday will hold in the teens. When we get temperatures this cold and snow is occurring (even if its the fine powdery light snow like this event will be) we develop travel issues as salt is much less effective. People will need to be aware that travel concerns will develop from Tuesday into Wednesday across Western Lower Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 Snow in process of ending.. 3.7" on the day, snow depth in backyard just shy of 11".. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Michigan mentions the possible issues with the LES event well. A cold front will blast through the area Monday night changing the precipitation over from rain to snow rather quickly. The lake effect snow machine will commence Monday night and continue probably right into Thursday. The main time frame of concern for lake effect snow will be Tuesday, Tuesday night and Wednesday. Delta T`s in this time frame will be high to extreme in the 20C to 30C degree range. Moisture depth is decent, but it is a bit lacking over time. Looking at the 850mb to 700mb layer which is where lake effect events separate themselves from ok to significant, the moisture is rather weak, less than 70 percent. That said, lake effect will occur and we will turn the lakeshore white again where the snow has melted. Of bigger concern will be travel issues that develop as highs on Wednesday will hold in the teens. When we get temperatures this cold and snow is occurring (even if its the fine powdery light snow like this event will be) we develop travel issues as salt is much less effective. People will need to be aware that travel concerns will develop from Tuesday into Wednesday across Western Lower Michigan Remember young Jedi, moisture can be different in relatively close areas, there will also, no doubt, be multiple shortwave rounding down like pinwheel around the parent low. We will be ok I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 A really awesome picturesque day, just after a new 3" has fallen! I believe it started before sunrise but it doesn't make a difference because this time of yr, diurnal influences are minimal anyhoo!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 Snow just ended and a super eerie “fog” is rolling through with wind. Assuming it’s the front but man the weather can be wild up here!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 10 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: A really awesome picturesque day, just after a new 3" has fallen! I believe it started before sunrise but it doesn't make a difference because this time of yr, diurnal influences are minimal anyhoo! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk The snow started at 7 AM here and ended about 2:30 so 7.5 hours of snowfall. I got about 2 inches of wet snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Snow in process of ending.. 3.7" on the day, snow depth in backyard just shy of 11".. Impressive. Different world out here in WNY. We warmed above freezing through last night and this morning. Less than an inch OTG now IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: Well my wind storm has up and vanished like a fart in the wind. Now I set my eyes to possibly chasing lake effect South of Buffalo next week. I've got some PTO I need to use before the end of the year.....hmmmmm Yeah, noticed that too. Maybe another chance way out there a day 7/8, per Euro, and to a lesser extent GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2019 Author Share Posted December 6, 2019 I believe NWS updated this: LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE BY MID WEEK... An Arctic cold front will cross the region for Tuesday. As such, cold air will rapidly pour into the area causing the ongoing rain showers from Tuesday morning to abruptly transition over to snow showers as we head into Tuesday afternoon. Winds shifting to westerly at 850 mb through the night on Tuesday into Wednesday will advect cold air into the region, causing the 850 mb temperature to drop to around minus 20C. In addition, multiple parameters are stacking up, from good over-lake instability, available moisture, and positioning of the upper and lower level features suggesting for a strong lake response off both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario beginning Tuesday night continuing into most of the day on Wednesday. As per usual, there is some uncertainty regarding the exact positioning of the lake effect bands, however the lower resolution models are suggesting winds to be generally westerly/southwesterly for most of this time period before veering northwest near the end of the event. High pressure will pass through the region for Thursday into Friday, lowering the chances for precipitation. Near the end of this period winds will shift southwesterly advecting warm area into the region. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I believe NWS updated this: LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE BY MID WEEK... An Arctic cold front will cross the region for Tuesday. As such, cold air will rapidly pour into the area causing the ongoing rain showers from Tuesday morning to abruptly transition over to snow showers as we head into Tuesday afternoon. Winds shifting to westerly at 850 mb through the night on Tuesday into Wednesday will advect cold air into the region, causing the 850 mb temperature to drop to around minus 20C. In addition, multiple parameters are stacking up, from good over-lake instability, available moisture, and positioning of the upper and lower level features suggesting for a strong lake response off both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario beginning Tuesday night continuing into most of the day on Wednesday. As per usual, there is some uncertainty regarding the exact positioning of the lake effect bands, however the lower resolution models are suggesting winds to be generally westerly/southwesterly for most of this time period before veering northwest near the end of the event. High pressure will pass through the region for Thursday into Friday, lowering the chances for precipitation. Near the end of this period winds will shift southwesterly advecting warm area into the region. Love the West/Southwesterly wording... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 2 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: Well my wind storm has up and vanished like a fart in the wind. Now I set my eyes to possibly chasing lake effect South of Buffalo next week. I've got some PTO I need to use before the end of the year.....hmmmmm Do you have a favorite place to go? Or a favorite route to travel? It seems like such a waste to be only an hour or so away and not chase, but I always feel weird just driving around.... I drove to Redfield once and it literally took all day (There and back). It’s not very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 Love the West/Southwesterly wording...Nothing like building the hype this early. It’ll just make our disappointment hurt that much more when us metro guys are watching that band roll in off the lake just to our south.Speaking of hype the local mets are already starting to sound the alarm to get everyone into panic mode. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2019 Author Share Posted December 6, 2019 8 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Nothing like building the hype this early. It’ll just make our disappointment hurt that much more when us metro guys are watching that band roll in off the lake just to our south. Speaking of hype the local mets are already starting to sound the alarm to get everyone into panic mode. . Yeah I wouldn't do that quite yet. Still not liking a few things on the models. By Sunday Evening we should have a pretty good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: Do you have a favorite place to go? Or a favorite route to travel? It seems like such a waste to be only an hour or so away and not chase, but I always feel weird just driving around.... I drove to Redfield once and it literally took all day (There and back). It’s not very close. I don't have a specific place to go. I usually try to get in position just outside the bands to get a feel for the roads and local area. I then proceed to punch through the band while maintaining some semblance of an escape plan if shit gets too dicey. I usually try to hit the band perpendicular to its long axis with the hope of making it out the other side. Seeing thundersnow, taking measurements, pushing out peoples cars along the way are the bonus agendas. But yeah, in the end It really just ends up driving around. Sometimes I'll pick some locations ahead of time to stop by such as small town with a restaurant to grab some food or an area on the lake front that is expected to be in the heart of the mayhem. I didnt have a great vehicle during the November 2014 storm and I knew it was out of my league, still sad I missed that one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2019 Author Share Posted December 6, 2019 My house is always open for chasers. It's too big for me and my wife. 2 extra bedrooms, just need to get beds in them. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2019 Author Share Posted December 6, 2019 I've driven in some crazy strong bands, but the worst conditions I've ever driven in were coming back from Holiday Valley one night at like 11 pm a few years back. The roads from Ellicottville to Springville are not lit at all and they go through the mountains. We hit a band that had to be 3-4" per hour with 20-30 MPH winds. I pulled over and waited for the band to pass. Events like 2014 you don't want to even bother with. You want to get somewhere before the band starts and then chase from that location. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vicarious Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 19 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I've driven in some crazy strong bands, but the worst conditions I've ever driven in were coming back from Holiday Valley one night at like 11 pm a few years back. The roads from Ellicottville to Springville are not lit at all and they go through the mountains. We hit a band that had to be 3-4" per hour with 20-30 MPH winds. I pulled over and waited for the band to pass. Events like 2014 you don't want to even bother with. You want to get somewhere before the band starts and then chase from that location. I was out snow plowing in 2014 and when I was plowing a parking lot around Clinton and Rossler I was afraid of hitting the building on the one side because I could barely see my plow let alone anything in front of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 23 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I've driven in some crazy strong bands, but the worst conditions I've ever driven in were coming back from Holiday Valley one night at like 11 pm a few years back. The roads from Ellicottville to Springville are not lit at all and they go through the mountains. We hit a band that had to be 3-4" per hour with 20-30 MPH winds. I pulled over and waited for the band to pass. Events like 2014 you don't want to even bother with. You want to get somewhere before the band starts and then chase from that location. I've been on that same stretch of road coming back from Holiday Valley just crawling along sweating bullets in a complete whiteout. Literally white knuckled for many miles. It is not pleasant. I've also been on 219 and literally got vertigo because I couldnt tell if I was moving or the snow was moving. All I could do was stare out the front right of my truck looking for road reflectors while desperately trying to maintain an equal distance from each one. Just counting the minutes until I could get out. Chasing can go from thrilling to terrifying mighty fast when you are in intense lake bands. It's a very fine line. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 Do you have a favorite place to go? Or a favorite route to travel? It seems like such a waste to be only an hour or so away and not chase, but I always feel weird just driving around.... I drove to Redfield once and it literally took all day (There and back). It’s not very close. If your looking for an easy and safer route try taking 20. Get off the 90 at Transit Road in Depew and just keep heading due south. If you haven’t hit the band in West Seneca the road bends and turns into Southwestern Blvd at the Orchard Park town line. You can take that all the way to the state line if your heart desires. Nice thing about 20 is the state usually keeps it in really good shape for driving and if things get that intense there are tons of places you can pull off and camp out without being in the middle of no where. Driving those back roads through an intense band are terrifying in my opinion.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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