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SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE BY
MID WEEK...
An arctic front will pass quickly through the area Tuesday allowing
cold air to surge into the region. Ongoing rain showers Tuesday
morning will transition over to snow showers through the afternoon
as the cold air deepens.

Arctic air will continue to pour into the region Tuesday night
through Wednesday night with 850 mb temperatures dropping to near
minus 20C. This will allow for a strong lake response off both Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario during this time period. As is the usually the
case this far in advance, there remains some uncertainty with
respect to exact location of the lake snows, but current lower
resolution models suggesting a general west or west-southwest flow
will dominate for much of the time period before veering northwest
near the end of the event.

It continues to look like all parameters are in place from extreme
over-lake instability, available moisture and position of upper
level features for significant lake snows downwind of both Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario during the Tuesday night through at least the
Wednesday night time frame
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31 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE BY
MID WEEK...

An arctic front will pass quickly through the area Tuesday allowing
cold air to surge into the region. Ongoing rain showers Tuesday
morning will transition over to snow showers through the afternoon
as the cold air deepens.

Arctic air will continue to pour into the region Tuesday night
through Wednesday night with 850 mb temperatures dropping to near
minus 20C. This will allow for a strong lake response off both Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario during this time period. As is the usually the
case this far in advance, there remains some uncertainty with
respect to exact location of the lake snows, but current lower
resolution models suggesting a general west or west-southwest flow
will dominate for much of the time period before veering northwest
near the end of the event.

It continues to look like all parameters are in place from extreme
over-lake instability, available moisture and position of upper
level features for significant lake snows downwind of both Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario during the Tuesday night through at least the
Wednesday night time frame

If it's a west-southwest flow I would be ecstatic for that. S/W will get the band to the metro much easier than a general westerly flow. Might not get the highest amounts but I'll be in the game as they say

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.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 

...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE BY
MID WEEK... 
Arctic air will continue to pour into the region Tuesday night
through Wednesday night with 850 mb temperatures dropping to near
minus 20C. This will allow for a strong lake response off both Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario during this time period. As is the usually the
case this far in advance, there remains some uncertainty with
respect to exact location of the lake snows, but current lower
resolution models suggesting a general west or west-southwest flow
will dominate for much of the time period before veering northwest
near the end of the event.

It continues to look like all parameters are in place from extreme
over-lake instability, available moisture and position of upper
level features for significant lake snows downwind of both Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario during the Tuesday night through at least the
Wednesday night time frame.

 

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So what exactly is an analogue and how is it generated? I’ve always assumed it’s a comparison of old weather events matched up (in order of closeness) to expected weather events. But it’s got to be complicated. How does it know that you’re looking for data points: Buffalo, 5 days from now, snowstorm? 
im making it too complicated? 

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1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

So what exactly is an analogue and how is it generated? I’ve always assumed it’s a comparison of old weather events matched up (in order of closeness) to expected weather events. But it’s got to be complicated. How does it know that you’re looking for data points: Buffalo, 5 days from now, snowstorm? 
im making it too complicated? 

An analog is the best atmospheric representation of any point in past weather history that best matches what the current models output for that specific time period. There is science to it, it's not just old weather events compared to future weather events. So the number one analog would be the one that matches up to the atmospheric pattern to that specific time period. 

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4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Gfs doesn't look too hot with LES potential, not enough separation between the cutter and a northern stream disturbance dropping down..

Followed by a driving rain storm lol

yeah except that S/W will bring the lake snows into the metro for a time...on the flip side how do we get rain from a low pressure over the east coast??? That would be a snowstorm not rain storm.

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