SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Lol that’s exactly how that 2006 one began. In a few hours it’ll jump to 6-12...then 24+WOW now... hold the chili sauce on that foot long! I don’t think we’re gonna go that crazy... but rather amusing the human factor is caving to what the models were showing 24 hours ago. WWA with 3-6” across the metro is a good call but a late call. Depending where the band camps out could max over 6” somewhere...First shortwave swinging through is really juicing up the band. Getting some decent returns over head... I’m back to all snow here now and it’s already accumulating on the roads.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 Yeah snow coming down very nicely here and having no trouble sticking to the roads and it’s not even coming down all that heavy... don’t see where these thermal issues are coming in unless it warms up during the night. I’m at 32 degrees now and it was 17 here this morning so all surfaces are pretty cold which is why the snow is sticking to everything no problem... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 7pm update from BUF... Now that’s how you word an AFD!Temperatures aloft will be marginally cold enough to supportlake effect snow through Wednesday with H85 temps around -6C.The first of two shortwaves is entering the region this eveningand this has provided enough moisture for a modest lake effectband to develop northeast of Lake Erie. This primarily startedas snow, especially a few miles inland from Lake Erie and thishelped provide the forecast confidence to expand the WinterWeather Advisory to include northern Erie county and the Buffalometro area. This will be a wet snow, and snow amounts will varyby location. It is possible that snow will struggle toaccumulate in downtown Buffalo, but will accumulate a severalmiles inland (along and inland of the I-190 and I-290 looparound downtown Buffalo. Expect up to 3 to 6 inches of snowaccumulation in the most persistent snows through earlyWednesday afternoon.In terms of band location, snow focused from downtown Buffalo tothe airport early evening will meander north through lateevening before settling slightly southward and back across themetro after midnight. This uses a consensus of model guidancebut is adjusted slightly northward based on forecast winds andtaking into account typically funnelling of winds by theChautauqua ridge.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 I wouldn't even call what occurred a lake response but perhaps if temps drop a bit closer to -9 to -11C then things would be a go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 Waiting game time now to see where and when that band sets up... Another good update from BUF at 915.IR satellite imagery shows a break in this moisture,so expect snow off Lake Erie to temporarily taper off late thisevening before a larger area of moisture arrives aroundmidnight.The fact that snow with this initial round was fairly widespread helpedprovide the forecast confidence to expand the Winter WeatherAdvisory to include northern Erie county and the Buffalo metroarea. It`s also worth noting that the 00Z Buffalo soundingconfirmed model forecasts with the 850mb temperature -6C. Thiswill be a wet snow, and snow amounts will vary by location.In terms of band location, a snow band will re-develop aftermidnight and focus roughly from downtown Buffalo to the airportthrough daybreak. A well defined band should be inplace across the Buffalo metro by the morning rush hour.Roadways will be slick at many locations for the morningcommute.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 15 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Waiting game time now to see where and when that band sets up... Another good update from BUF at 915. IR satellite imagery shows a break in this moisture, so expect snow off Lake Erie to temporarily taper off late this evening before a larger area of moisture arrives around midnight. The fact that snow with this initial round was fairly widespread helped provide the forecast confidence to expand the Winter Weather Advisory to include northern Erie county and the Buffalo metro area. It`s also worth noting that the 00Z Buffalo sounding confirmed model forecasts with the 850mb temperature -6C. This will be a wet snow, and snow amounts will vary by location. In terms of band location, a snow band will re-develop after midnight and focus roughly from downtown Buffalo to the airport through daybreak. A well defined band should be in place across the Buffalo metro by the morning rush hour. Roadways will be slick at many locations for the morning commute. . Appears metro northeast will be under the gun after 2 or 3am. I'm still not ruling out 6 or 8 inches in the areas that are under most stationary part of the band. Think Clarence, east Amherst, east Williamsville, Lancaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 Nam products coming in like the Canadian wrt track for Friday's clipper.. Euro had it all the way down near the NY/pa border.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 New map from Buffalo Shows 4"-6" imby, we'll see how that one goes lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 Well that was a dud. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: Well that was a dud. Wow I was not expecting to see that when I woke up... where’s the lake effect???? Looks almost non existent and I have maybe 2 inches??? The NWS was right and we were all wrong. Guess that’s why they get paid the big bucks. Definitely will make me think again before criticizing them... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 I was thinking well at least theres the cold blast next week with multiple chances for LES and general snow events...the last 3 runs of the GFS says you have no soup for you...damn snow Nazi... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 I’m just over 3” of some of the wettest snow I’ve ever gotten. Still coming down at a decent clip. Out in southeast Clarence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 10 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I was thinking well at least theres the cold blast next week with multiple chances for LES and general snow events...the last 3 runs of the GFS says you have no soup for you...damn snow Nazi... Looking out just beyond the end of this period...there is increasing agreement amongst the medium range models that much colder air will then overspread our region for the middle and latter portions of next week. If realized...this would result in temperatures falling back to below normal levels...which in turn could lead to the potential for significant lake snows downwind of the lakes dependent upon how the background synoptic environment evolves across our region. Stay tuned... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 46 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Wow I was not expecting to see that when I woke up... where’s the lake effect???? Looks almost non existent and I have maybe 2 inches??? The NWS was right and we were all wrong. Guess that’s why they get paid the big bucks. Definitely will make me think again before criticizing them... We got shafted HARD lol haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 35 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: 00z Euro is just as meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 Measured 2.4” here. 0.41” water equivalent so it’s some straight up concrete! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 Here we go with the omnipresent, or so it seems, WWA from 4PM to 10AM that will only affect the Northern portion of the State, right where Matt lived, while the Southern portion whiffs the exhaust from whatever insignificant bands that'll be up thata way for most of this evening and tonight!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 10 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Measured 2.4” here. 0.41” water equivalent so it’s some straight up concrete! Measured about 3/4" of slush. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 Still gotta go check the stick but looking like 1.5”-2” of slop here. Watching the radar run from overnight looks like the miss was in the fact the band just never organized like every one of the models showed that it would. Few good pulses and flare ups but most of the night nothing was going on. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 4, 2019 Author Share Posted December 4, 2019 New map. Overnight LES, the "band" was quite weak all night. Too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: New map. Overnight LES, the "band" was quite weak all night. Too warm. I'm guessing that includes the Clipper Thursday night Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 Clipper will just be starting around 12z Friday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 Hoping the rgem has a clue but doubtful.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 According to the NWS text it begins in WNY late Thursday night Friday dawn...and FWIW the euro is south along the PA/NY border which could give the area a bit more than forecasted as that is the most desired track for a ribbon of better lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 Graupel-sleet mix in Cheektowaga by the airport. Very sharp cutoff to the accums last night. My house is between maple rd and Sheridan Dr in Williamsville and I posted earlier my 3/4" of taint but I drove not even one mile south towards wherle and young and the plows had to come out with close to 3". Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 4, 2019 Author Share Posted December 4, 2019 3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Graupel-sleet mix in Cheektowaga by the airport. Very sharp cutoff to the accums last night. My house is between maple rd and Sheridan Dr in Williamsville and I posted earlier my 3/4" of taint but I drove not even one mile south towards wherle and young and the plows had to come out with close to 3". Interesting. Yeah it's not really a bust. The forecast was for 3-7" and that is likely to occur as the band strengthens the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 4, 2019 Author Share Posted December 4, 2019 Looks like its coming down pretty good around transit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 Plain rain near William and Bailey... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 2.2” here at 8am. Seeing every p type possible in the last hour. Mainly light rain with some pellets mixed in but then we get a burst of some flakes then back to rain. Looks like it’s trying to organize better now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 8 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: 2.2” here at 8am. Seeing every p type possible in the last hour. Mainly light rain with some pellets mixed in but then we get a burst of some flakes then back to rain. Looks like it’s trying to organize better now... . All graupel here at the office across from the airport. Band has definitely reintensified and looks good on radar. Probably also a bit of a southward dip the last frame...i don't think the band will really truly make it to areas north of the 90 split to Albany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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