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I think Nov 14 might have gotten up to 8-9" per hour at one point, but nothing in double digits. There is a timestamp map of a picture looking out the window that shows it, have to look up in my photos. 


Yeah we had to be in the 6-8”/hr range here that first night. Had 36” down in 6 1/2 hours so averaging 6”/hr had to assume there were higher spikes in there. Really wish I hadn’t wrote that band off and went to bed when I did. I missed out on that. Only other time I can remember seeing rates like that was Dec 2001 one of the nights we were in a similar 6-8”/hr band for several hours.


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16 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

 


Yeah we had to be in the 6-8”/hr range here that first night. Had 36” down in 6 1/2 hours so averaging 6”/hr had to assume there were higher spikes in there. Really wish I hadn’t wrote that band off and went to bed when I did. I missed out on that. Only other time I can remember seeing rates like that was Dec 2001 one of the nights we were in a similar 6-8”/hr band for several hours.


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Yeah we got to around 4-6" an hour at times in that 2014 event but nothing like places further north. We just stayed in the band for the longest period of the time between the 2 events. 

2001 was just amazing. That week was incredible. I have some pictures of snow castles in the city of Buffalo. My dad drove me and my sister to my grandmas house in the city, we made snow tunnels throughout the yard. My parents house in Cheektowaga got destroyed in that storm, close to the airport. They had to have about 20-30" more than the city had. Northwest portion of the city near Buff State. 

Lake Effect Summary - Dec 24 2001 to Jan 01 2002 - Storm Total Snow Map

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37 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah we got to around 4-6" an hour at times in that 2014 event but nothing like places further north. We just stayed in the band for the longest period of the time between the 2 events. 

2001 was just amazing. That week was incredible. I have some pictures of snow castles in the city of Buffalo. My dad drove me and my sister to my grandmas house in the city, we made snow tunnels throughout the yard. My parents house in Cheektowaga got destroyed in that storm, close to the airport. They had to have about 20-30" more than the city had. Northwest portion of the city near Buff State. 

Lake Effect Summary - Dec 24 2001 to Jan 01 2002 - Storm Total Snow Map

I lived at Indian church and union in west seneca for that storm and by the end of it we were jumping out the second story window for fun. I was just out of highschool in an apartment with three other guys playing madden all week. luckily we didnt run outta beer.

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I think Nov 14 might have gotten up to 8-9" per hour at one point, but nothing in double digits. There is a timestamp map of a picture looking out the window that shows it, have to look up in my photos. 

My father in law told me that he believed that in Gardenville, two feet of snow fell in three hours, based on his trips behind their house to make sure their standby generator was in working shape. He actually quit trying to dig it out after that because going out was too dangerous - the whiteout was so bad that you couldn't see their house from less than 20 yards away.

I've told this story before, but it was in the dig-out at the in-laws after that storm when I sank into the snow nearly to my knees and found myself standing on top of a six foot fence post. Probably a little bit of drifting, but they had over 72" easily. I'm not a native WNYer and it's still stunning to think about it.

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19 minutes ago, WNash said:

My father in law told me that he believed that in Gardenville, two feet of snow fell in three hours, based on his trips behind their house to make sure their standby generator was in working shape. He actually quit trying to dig it out after that because going out was too dangerous - the whiteout was so bad that you couldn't see their house from less than 20 yards away.

I've told this story before, but it was in the dig-out at the in-laws after that storm when I sank into the snow nearly to my knees and found myself standing on top of a six foot fence post. Probably a little bit of drifting, but they had over 72" easily. I'm not a native WNYer and it's still stunning to think about it.

There were definitely places above 60" depth at the end of event 2. I measured 52" and I know places near Elma/Wales had over 100" 

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7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I plan on doing it this year if it happens, anyone is welcome to come. 

Awesome! I might be up for this. I'll figure out a good time to bring it up with the wife. We have a toddler, so I have to plan around childcare.

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NWS getting scared on their call maybe? Just put up an open ended HWO for metro Buffalo tonight into tomorrow...


Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
312 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2019

NYZ010-042015-
Northern Erie-
312 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Lake effect showers will blossom across the northern half of the
county tonight. While the activity should be a mix of rain and wet
snow...there is the potential that the precipitation could change to
all snow by daybreak. This could lead to a slushy coating on area
roadways.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Moderately heavy lake effect will be found over the northern half of
the county during the morning. While the activity could be mixed...
there will be the risk that snow accumulations could reach a few
inches if the precipitation falls as just snow.


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7 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

NWS getting scared on their call maybe? Just put up an open ended HWO for metro Buffalo tonight into tomorrow...


Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
312 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2019

NYZ010-042015-
Northern Erie-
312 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Lake effect showers will blossom across the northern half of the
county tonight. While the activity should be a mix of rain and wet
snow...there is the potential that the precipitation could change to
all snow by daybreak. This could lead to a slushy coating on area
roadways.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Moderately heavy lake effect will be found over the northern half of
the county during the morning. While the activity could be mixed...
there will be the risk that snow accumulations could reach a few
inches if the precipitation falls as just snow.


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Well its already snowing lightly here in west falls, lets see if it turns to rain.

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1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said:

It appears to have set up further south than forecast...that band was forecasted for the Northtowns...oh well there's thursday night and next week starting Wednesday to look forward to.

Looks like it's getting lift from the front passing by.. btw i think we got a chance to see 4-8" here in the metro if everything works out. **** what BUF says lol!!

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It appears to have set up further south than forecast...that band was forecasted for the Northtowns...oh well there's thursday night and next week starting Wednesday to look forward to.

No it’s right on schedule! It wasn’t even suppose to be into the metro until around 8 and then drift north through midnight before heading back south. Snow is starting here in South Buffalo!!!


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On 12/1/2019 at 8:12 AM, rochesterdave said:

I’m sticking with my numbers from yesterday 

BUF 1

ROC 1 (airport, East +)

SYR 8

Fulton 8

Albany 13 (bust already

 

 

Obviously busted with ROC ending up with 4-5. Everyone here did a good job. Albany ended up with big numbers. On to the next one.

that Oswego stuff is nuts

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16 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:


No it’s right on schedule! It wasn’t even suppose to be into the metro until around 8 and then drift north through midnight before heading back south. Snow is starting here in South Buffalo!!!


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Huh. They thought it would start out as rain and the mix wouldn't happen until midnight...

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Call me a weenie all you want but Im still going all in on dynamic cooling and high enough rates to overcome the thermal issues tonight.


As we progress into the overnight though...
deepening moisture will encourage more efficient snow production.
The question will then be how cold will be low levels be for the wet
snow to accumulate. This should not be a problem for elevated
surfaces...but unless the snow is moderately heavy...it may have
trouble sticking to most roads. This will prove to be critical in
the BUF metro area where a well defined band should be in place by
the morning rush hour. Will stay with a mix at this point...but if
it falls as snow...roadways could become slick for the morning
commute. This will continue to be evaluated by the ensuing forecast
shifts.


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Anyone else having vivid flashbacks to October 2006???

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
604 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2019

NYZ010-040900-
/O.EXB.KBUF.WW.Y.0042.191204T0000Z-191205T1800Z/
Northern Erie-
Including the city of Buffalo
604 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of
3 to 6 inches in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Northern Erie county.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.



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18 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Anyone else having vivid flashbacks to October 2006???

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
604 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2019

NYZ010-040900-
/O.EXB.KBUF.WW.Y.0042.191204T0000Z-191205T1800Z/
Northern Erie-
Including the city of Buffalo
604 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of
3 to 6 inches in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Northern Erie county.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.



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No but it is telling me that the local Mets really do not have a handle on our weather. Us weenies saw these model outputs more than 24 hours ago and BW mentioned this threat 72 hours ago! 

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