Buckeyes_Suck Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Just now, wolfie09 said: What I tell you haha Looks just like the global models.. I wonder if they had turnover in staff this past summer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 I'm sure it will change next update.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2019 Author Share Posted December 3, 2019 36 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Incredibly the data you just showed with the possibility of 4" or more goes against every model you showed and emulates the NWS forecast. It begs an honest question, what models are they using? Elevation based event with thermal issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Yeah, the rgem is not all snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2019 Author Share Posted December 3, 2019 26 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: What I tell you haha Looks just like the global models.. The global models look much better than the hi Rez models for this area into the tug, which is strange lol On average they have 3/4-1" LE Globals for LES within 24 hours? Interns? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Kuchera shows 3.8" on 0.9" LE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Yeah I suppose that's correct but I'm still having a hard time with the diurnal part of this. Plus the lake water isn't especially warm either to make an impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Cold air is bottled to the NE.. No cold air to tap.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2019 Author Share Posted December 3, 2019 23 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Cold air is bottled to the NE.. No cold air to tap.. Sometimes LES events can create their own cold air if the rates are high enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2019 Author Share Posted December 3, 2019 Top analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2019 Author Share Posted December 3, 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie counties. * WHEN...From 10 AM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Could be a few more inches on Friday as well with another clipper system, depending on exact track, could be a little enhancement.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Good start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2019 Author Share Posted December 3, 2019 The last storm was an all timer for eastern NY. Some crazy stats from NE forum. The ALB area QPF storm total amounts are insane. A large area of 2.0-3.0” water with even a couple stations exceeding 3” QPF for the storm. Very rare to get that much QPF in an “all-snow” storm that far from the ocean. I honestly can’t remember anything like that for total QPF around the Capital District in a snow event. Even March 2001 was less than 2” water I think. The town next to my parents, Altamont had 2.64” water and 27” snow. Albany City 2.28” and 23.9” snow. That area of ENY seemed to miss the higher ratio stuff you guys further east got last night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Potent little clipper on the Canadian.. Need to keep it south of Ontario lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2019 Author Share Posted December 3, 2019 Not bad eh? On 11/22/2019 at 12:21 PM, BuffaloWeather said: Way out there but Dec 4-7th is best chance at first lake snow event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2019 Author Share Posted December 3, 2019 The GFS and GEM are just amazing runs across the board, very active pattern. Several shots of synoptic and LES chances. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 My own opinion, the KBUF NWS office went downhill fast, when Tom Niziol left that office and went to TWC but he's getting big bucks there, compared to the horrific gov't pay, or so I've heard, but since he left, I've seen a definite change. He was into the weather, a Weenie at heart and that's what we need, but the public needs level headed, by the book dude who just does his job, objectively, then goes home and then turns into a Weenie, but it's all a disguise, lol!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Quite amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2019 Author Share Posted December 3, 2019 7 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: My own opinion, the KBUF NWS office went downhill fast, when Tom Niziol left that office and went to TWC but he's getting big bucks there, compared to the horrific gov't pay, or so I've heard, but since he left, I've seen a definite change. He was into the weather, a Weenie at heart and that's what we need, but the public needs level headed, by the book dude who just does his job, objectively, then goes home and then turns into a Weenie, but it's all a disguise, lol! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk I love Niziol my favorite met of all time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2019 Author Share Posted December 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Quite amazing I don't think this has been updated with Nov 2014 totals. 65" in 24 hours. I believe the 77" total has been disproved as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: I love Niziol my favorite met of all time. For sure, one of the best to ever grace the KBUF office, thats when they we're on point! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Quite amazing That 72' storm, at Oswego only it seems, lol, but Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 No doubt but the Oswego 27" in 3 hrs is legit, which is nuts lol On the lake shore with zero elevation.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 I've seen an unofficial record of 12" in 1 hour in Copenhagen Tug doesn't have many spotters.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2019 Author Share Posted December 3, 2019 I think Nov 14 might have gotten up to 8-9" per hour at one point, but nothing in double digits. There is a timestamp map of a picture looking out the window that shows it, have to look up in my photos. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2019 Author Share Posted December 3, 2019 11 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I've seen an unofficial record of 12" in 1 hour in Copenhagen Tug doesn't have many spotters.. I believe it. LEK has said he has seen double digit rates a few times throughout the years. The triple lake connection is unmatched east of the rockies. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 LEK and I stood on rt11 in Pulaski and sat under a 8"/band for 1/2 hr 4"!! The magical part was that there was no wind at all, just falling straight down and accumulating at crazy rates! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2019 Author Share Posted December 3, 2019 1 minute ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: LEK and I stood on rt11 in Pulaski and sat under a 8"/band for 1/2 hr 4"!! The magical part was that there was no wind at all, just falling straight down and accumulating at crazy rates! I need this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Yeah, if their was any wind u would of seen zero lol All the best events last year for Pulaski were light winds.. It's very easy for Pulaski to get"jumped" over.. Light wind events are my favorite personally, did well with some last year.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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