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16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Rain/Wet snow according to NWS. Unless the rates can get intense enough to cool the column enough.

But that would only matter diurnally, no? The timestamp of the axis of heavy snow is from 11pm to 5am. I would think it would be easier to cool the column if needed to get all snow. 

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41 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

But that would only matter diurnally, no? The timestamp of the axis of heavy snow is from 11pm to 5am. I would think it would be easier to cool the column if needed to get all snow. 

That's what happened in Oct of 06, the heavy stuff fell overnight. That's above my knowledge level. But nearly every high res model output is putting Advs/Warning level type snows.

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I guess part of my confusion with this is how the NWS is discussing it. Considering all the meso are showing this band to varying extents the AFD seems to just breeze over this without explanation. Are we looking at a p type issue limiting accumulation or are we looking at poor dynamics for band formation? Yeah the NAM is throwing a super low ratio which would hold back accumulation but they are all showing about 1/2” of liquid from that band over a few hour period. The wording in the discussion of just light snow showers makes it seem like they don’t see this band organizing the way the models are depicting. Even the local guys standing in front of this dark blue snow band dancing across the city just saying they don’t see much accumulation... ok... well why?

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Just now, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

I guess part of my confusion with this is how the NWS is discussing it. Considering all the meso are showing this band to varying extents the AFD seems to just breeze over this without explanation. Are we looking at a p type issue limiting accumulation or are we looking at poor dynamics for band formation? Yeah the NAM is throwing a super low ratio which would hold back accumulation but they are all showing about 1/2” of liquid from that band over a few hour period. The wording in the discussion of just light snow showers makes it seem like they don’t see this band organizing the way the models are depicting. Even the local guys standing in front of this dark blue snow band dancing across the city just saying they don’t see much accumulation... ok... well why?

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We're definitely looking at thermal issues. There will definitely be a strong band of wet lake snow somewhere tomorrow night-weds morning.

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13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

We're definitely looking at thermal issues. There will definitely be a strong band of wet lake snow somewhere tomorrow night-weds morning.

I guess I’m supposed to be convinced by the local met consensus but I’d appreciate it if at least one of the on-air folks or the AFD would substantively address the discrepancy between their forecasts and model output. 

Say what you will about Don Paul but his WIVB blog was really helpful (when he bothered to update it).

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We're definitely looking at thermal issues. There will definitely be a strong band of wet lake snow somewhere tomorrow night-weds morning.


Yeah I get that take but I just wish there was more discussion on it... We always get the nity gritty details but now we have all the meso showing this band and popping higher end accumulations and we get a one sentence blurb that it accumulations SHOULD be insignificant. You would think they could mention thermal concerns briefly to add the human input side and rule out some of the model output data. Again going back to the overall QPF there is a good consensus of about 1/2” from this band over an 8 hour period. Even if it’s melting on contact your still talking about decent enough snowfall rates that they should earn some talk on the AFD. Oh well guess we will just have to wait and see what actually goes down tomorrow night.
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2 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

 


Yeah I get that take but I just wish there was more discussion on it... We always get the nity gritty details but now we have all the meso showing this band and popping higher end accumulations and we get a one sentence blurb that it accumulations SHOULD be insignificant. You would think they could mention thermal concerns briefly to add the human input side and rule out some of the model output data. Again going back to the overall QPF there is a good consensus of about 1/2” from this band over an 8 hour period. Even if it’s melting on contact your still talking about decent enough snowfall rates that they should earn some talk on the AFD. Oh well guess we will just have to wait and see what actually goes down tomorrow night.

 

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Nice 11pm weather segment from Andy Parker. Channel 7 in house has the band setting up around 8pm. He talks about rain mixing in through midnight but expects a change to all snow after that. Has the band hang around the south side of the metro through most of the early morning before heading south. He took a step ahead of the pack calling for 1-3” in the city, 3-6” in the south towns.

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38 minutes ago, WNash said:

Looking at the ENY reports... for such a picturesque town, Saratoga Springs is where SN goes to die. Half the accumulation of literally everywhere around them.

The heaviest banding last night set up just south of Saratoga Springs, and I mean just south.  Malta, Clifton Park, etc. are all reporting over 20" now just a few miles away from the city.  Saratoga usually isn't a bad place for snow.  I actually think Albany Airport may be reporting a little low compared to those around them too.  Not sure what's going on there. 

Either way, over 20" here with still moderate snow falling.  This has some serious weight to it too, and not the fluff that I'm used to in Upstate NY.  Kind of reminds me of what fell back in my CT days.  

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