BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2019 Author Share Posted December 3, 2019 Just now, wolfie09 said: Arw looks nice for Buffalo as well.. Rain/Wet snow according to NWS. Unless the rates can get intense enough to cool the column enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Arw looks nice for Buffalo as well.. For the win!!!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Rain/Wet snow according to NWS. Unless the rates can get intense enough to cool the column enough. But that would only matter diurnally, no? The timestamp of the axis of heavy snow is from 11pm to 5am. I would think it would be easier to cool the column if needed to get all snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 15 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: For the win!!! . Ugh! Gotta head to Buffalo tomorrow for work until Thursday- stay right in the city so I can be in a case at 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2019 Author Share Posted December 3, 2019 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2019 Author Share Posted December 3, 2019 41 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: But that would only matter diurnally, no? The timestamp of the axis of heavy snow is from 11pm to 5am. I would think it would be easier to cool the column if needed to get all snow. That's what happened in Oct of 06, the heavy stuff fell overnight. That's above my knowledge level. But nearly every high res model output is putting Advs/Warning level type snows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 I guess part of my confusion with this is how the NWS is discussing it. Considering all the meso are showing this band to varying extents the AFD seems to just breeze over this without explanation. Are we looking at a p type issue limiting accumulation or are we looking at poor dynamics for band formation? Yeah the NAM is throwing a super low ratio which would hold back accumulation but they are all showing about 1/2” of liquid from that band over a few hour period. The wording in the discussion of just light snow showers makes it seem like they don’t see this band organizing the way the models are depicting. Even the local guys standing in front of this dark blue snow band dancing across the city just saying they don’t see much accumulation... ok... well why?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2019 Author Share Posted December 3, 2019 Just now, SouthBuffaloSteve said: I guess part of my confusion with this is how the NWS is discussing it. Considering all the meso are showing this band to varying extents the AFD seems to just breeze over this without explanation. Are we looking at a p type issue limiting accumulation or are we looking at poor dynamics for band formation? Yeah the NAM is throwing a super low ratio which would hold back accumulation but they are all showing about 1/2” of liquid from that band over a few hour period. The wording in the discussion of just light snow showers makes it seem like they don’t see this band organizing the way the models are depicting. Even the local guys standing in front of this dark blue snow band dancing across the city just saying they don’t see much accumulation... ok... well why? . We're definitely looking at thermal issues. There will definitely be a strong band of wet lake snow somewhere tomorrow night-weds morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: We're definitely looking at thermal issues. There will definitely be a strong band of wet lake snow somewhere tomorrow night-weds morning. I guess I’m supposed to be convinced by the local met consensus but I’d appreciate it if at least one of the on-air folks or the AFD would substantively address the discrepancy between their forecasts and model output. Say what you will about Don Paul but his WIVB blog was really helpful (when he bothered to update it). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Looking at the ENY reports... for such a picturesque town, Saratoga Springs is where SN goes to die. Half the accumulation of literally everywhere around them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 We're definitely looking at thermal issues. There will definitely be a strong band of wet lake snow somewhere tomorrow night-weds morning.Yeah I get that take but I just wish there was more discussion on it... We always get the nity gritty details but now we have all the meso showing this band and popping higher end accumulations and we get a one sentence blurb that it accumulations SHOULD be insignificant. You would think they could mention thermal concerns briefly to add the human input side and rule out some of the model output data. Again going back to the overall QPF there is a good consensus of about 1/2” from this band over an 8 hour period. Even if it’s melting on contact your still talking about decent enough snowfall rates that they should earn some talk on the AFD. Oh well guess we will just have to wait and see what actually goes down tomorrow night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2019 Author Share Posted December 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Yeah I get that take but I just wish there was more discussion on it... We always get the nity gritty details but now we have all the meso showing this band and popping higher end accumulations and we get a one sentence blurb that it accumulations SHOULD be insignificant. You would think they could mention thermal concerns briefly to add the human input side and rule out some of the model output data. Again going back to the overall QPF there is a good consensus of about 1/2” from this band over an 8 hour period. Even if it’s melting on contact your still talking about decent enough snowfall rates that they should earn some talk on the AFD. Oh well guess we will just have to wait and see what actually goes down tomorrow night. Some are showing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: That's what happened in Oct of 06, the heavy stuff fell overnight. That's above my knowledge level. But nearly every high res model output is putting Advs/Warning level type snows. Agreed. We're missing something evidently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Nice 11pm weather segment from Andy Parker. Channel 7 in house has the band setting up around 8pm. He talks about rain mixing in through midnight but expects a change to all snow after that. Has the band hang around the south side of the metro through most of the early morning before heading south. He took a step ahead of the pack calling for 1-3” in the city, 3-6” in the south towns. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Agreed. We're missing something evidently.Also it is freaking December now. We shouldn’t be talking about rain mixing into a lake effect band. This thing has overachiever written all over it! . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 38 minutes ago, WNash said: Looking at the ENY reports... for such a picturesque town, Saratoga Springs is where SN goes to die. Half the accumulation of literally everywhere around them. The heaviest banding last night set up just south of Saratoga Springs, and I mean just south. Malta, Clifton Park, etc. are all reporting over 20" now just a few miles away from the city. Saratoga usually isn't a bad place for snow. I actually think Albany Airport may be reporting a little low compared to those around them too. Not sure what's going on there. Either way, over 20" here with still moderate snow falling. This has some serious weight to it too, and not the fluff that I'm used to in Upstate NY. Kind of reminds me of what fell back in my CT days. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I’m surprised heaviest snows aren’t over metro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 9 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: I’m surprised heaviest snows aren’t over metro I just asked them this on their Twitter, we’ll see if they respond. Unless they’re seeing something we can see this map makes no sense. Heaviest QPF is metro and Southtowns... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 RGEM and BTV-WRF have bullseyes over the Southtowns... Not even a dang HWO for N Erie mentioning the chance at moderate accumulations, but yet there’s one for ski country?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Probably going with the gfs lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Their map kinda looks like some of the global models lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Local Mets are a range of 1-2" in metro to 3 to 4" metro overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Well look at this way whenever they don't issue any headlines we always over-achieve so let it be lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2019 Author Share Posted December 3, 2019 Pretty active and exciting GFS run and a nice LES event while I'm in Florida for Metro. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2019 Author Share Posted December 3, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2019 Author Share Posted December 3, 2019 That last one has 10-14" at 1:10 across southtowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That last one has 10-14" at 1:10 across southtowns. Incredibly the data you just showed with the possibility of 4" or more goes against every model you showed and emulates the NWS forecast. It begs an honest question, what models are they using? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 What I tell you haha Looks just like the global models.. The global models look much better than the hi Rez models for this area into the tug, which is strange lol On average they have 3/4-1" LE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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