BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2019 Author Share Posted December 29, 2019 3 hours ago, wolfie09 said: One of those rare events my area jackpots lol One of these days.. I'm also not sure Matt is rooting for the tug anymore as he is down in Baldwinsville lol Speaking of the tug, some fantasy goodies.. This event actually jackpotted Syracuse with 40-60". All Off Lk. Erie: Randolph....47 inches Cherry Hill....34 inches Perrysburg....25 inches Hinsdale....24 inches Franklinville....19 inches Buffalo area....2 to 8 inches London, Ontario....45 to 65 inches Off Lk Ontario: Lacona....51 inches Newark....42 inches Fulton....29 inches Marion....29 inches Phoenix....22 inches Rochester area....14 to 24 inches Syracuse area....40 to 60 inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 7 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Beast of a storm brewing! . How does that not pull down enough cold air for an epic les event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2019 Author Share Posted December 29, 2019 Just now, Luke_Mages said: How does that not pull down enough cold air for an epic les event The reason for the quick wind direction is due to the primary taking over near Boston. If that doesn't happen we get a longer WSW wind. The reason for no cold air is just because there is none in the lower 48. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2019 Author Share Posted December 29, 2019 16 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Hey, daxx. No problem at all about posting on here. This sub is very welcoming to outside visitors. I grew up as your neighbor in Lancaster county, so I am very familiar with "meh" winters. I lived in the southern part of Redfield last winter, and it blew chunks. Doesn't look like they're doing much better this season. Waaaay too many thaws! That area has some pretty good snow retention though. As Buffalo Bumble stated, the UP is probably one of the best locations for consistent snow pack PLUS snowfall...particularly the northern UP. Marquette is actually a pretty busy city up there. I prefer the northern part of the UP, from Munising over to Houghton...for many reasons! The southeastern part is too flat, boring, and gets way less snow. I am looking at potential places between here and the Fulton/Volney area. Volney seems to do the best in southern Oswego county. Someone like yourself that only enjoys winter needs to be somewhere else. The reason why the southern Tug or ski country in WNY are the best for me is because I prefer summer to winter but enjoy snow too. We have the best combination of both east of the rockies. Our summers are warm and dry and our winters are snowy and reasonable with the cold. The UP has terrible summers, many times in the 60s for highs and lows in the 40s most of the summer months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 expecting a nice 4-6 inches on the front end dump followed by sleet. excited will post obs throughout the night. HRRR showing those thermal profiles nicely, keeping us cool enough for wet snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2019 Author Share Posted December 29, 2019 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Rgem is mostly a WSW flow event with a little SW/W sprinkled in..Still snowing at this hour.. Solid transition zone showing up there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: This event actually jackpotted Syracuse with 40-60". All Off Lk. Erie: Randolph....47 inches Cherry Hill....34 inches Perrysburg....25 inches Hinsdale....24 inches Franklinville....19 inches Buffalo area....2 to 8 inches London, Ontario....45 to 65 inches Off Lk Ontario: Lacona....51 inches Newark....42 inches Fulton....29 inches Marion....29 inches Phoenix....22 inches Rochester area....14 to 24 inches Syracuse area....40 to 60 inches I didnt recall this event at first but sure enough we had about 50" over a 6 day period. Probably a once in a decade type event here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2019 Author Share Posted December 29, 2019 Tuesday night, deep synoptic moisture in combination with the air mass grows colder(H850T dipping to -10/-11C), a modest lake response will be possible overnight. Look for accumulating lake snows first east-northeast of both lakes, then as flow becomes more westerly it will favor the typical snow belt areas east of the lakes. While this doesn`t appear to be a major lake effect event at this point, there likely will be some advisory-type accumulations and possibly a few warning amounts. This will especially be the case across the higher terrain east of both lakes (Chautauqua Ridge and Tug hill area) where upslope flow will maximize accumulations between Tuesday night and Wednesday. For now, will mention this in the HWO. Lake snows will still be ongoing early Wednesday morning. However, over the course of the day lake snows will slowly weaken as synoptic moisture gets stripped away and equilibrium levels fall. As usually is the case, lake snows tend to linger a bit longer than we anticipate so current thinking is they will persist most of Wednesday. With that said, it won`t be until surface-based ridge and drier air builds into our region late in the day Wednesday into Wednesday night that will put an end to the lake snows. With increasing shear and lowering of the capping, along with developing warm air advection aloft expect any remaining lake effect will effectively shut down Wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 U always make me copy and paste for nothing, always, haha I need to be quicker.. Tuesday Night Snow showers. Low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New Year's Day Snow showers. High near 33. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Wednesday Night Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 30 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Someone like yourself that only enjoys winter needs to be somewhere else. The reason why the southern Tug or ski country in WNY are the best for me is because I prefer summer to winter but enjoy snow too. We have the best combination of both east of the rockies. Our summers are warm and dry and our winters are snowy and reasonable with the cold. The UP has terrible summers, many times in the 60s for highs and lows in the 40s most of the summer months. Yep, that sounds perfect to me. Summer days around 70 and nights in the 40s. I LOVE fall as well. The black flies and deer flies make summers unbearable though in locations like the UP and the Tug. Everything has its pros and cons, right? My wife still says our next move will be to Virginia......…...………………...…...………………………………...…… lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 12Z op GFS looks pretty uninspiring thru mid January. More wet than white, synoptically. Probably a stray inch or two of lake snow in there somewhere, for here. Basically, a lost month shaping up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 22 minutes ago, Syrmax said: 12Z op GFS looks pretty uninspiring thru mid January. More wet than white, synoptically. Probably a stray inch or two of lake snow in there somewhere, for here. Basically, a lost month shaping up. Hard to ride the gfs OP long term. Euro shows some promise but that said I agree that January isn’t going to produce much except cuts. Teles argue for that. We shall see what things look like in 10 days, but expectations low here. Making plans for Park City. Screw this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 Yup..18Z GFS looks like a bunch of crap cutters...maybe some secondary lows developing too late. The same junk we dealt with in November, and last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 31 degrees light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: Yup..18Z GFS looks like a bunch of crap cutters...maybe some secondary lows developing too late. The same junk we dealt with in November, and last winter. My friend lives in Syracuse and he said that his area is struggling so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 35 minutes ago, Snow88 said: My friend lives in Syracuse and he said that his area is struggling so far Cutters and absent lake effect snows are really going to put us behind over the next 1 to 2 weeks, if not longer. I would rather have consistent snowfalls than a big event surrounded by thaws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 Moderate snow 31 degrees sticking on all surfaces 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 7 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Cutters and absent lake effect snows are really going to put us behind over the next 1 to 2 weeks, if not longer. I would rather have consistent snowfalls than a big event surrounded by thaws. Caribou seems like the spot lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Caribou seems like the spot lol Hancock, Michigan! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 9 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Hancock, Michigan! Marquette? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 47 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: Moderate snow 31 degrees sticking on all surfaces Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2019 Author Share Posted December 30, 2019 RGEM is a 4-8" event for Central/Southern Erie county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 That's a big hit just to my North, like 5-10 miles or so.. Still a nice run.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 GFS shows the cold finally coming in next week...but very dry. Storms are cut off. haha Then...at the end of the week...a cutter. We can't afford to have anything dig right now. SE ridge pushes up every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 Euro over the next 8 days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 Rgem with a different orientation in regards to Snowfall, keeps most of the heaviest closer to the lake shore..This is only till Wednesday am.. Since this event is all snow/rain , TT is acceptable lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 13 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Rgem with a different orientation in regards to Snowfall, keeps most of the heaviest closer to the lake shore..This is only till Wednesday am.. Since this event is all snow/rain , TT is acceptable lol Rgem has a little bullseye of 40-50 mm near Sandy Creek, probably over doing it some as that's 15"-20" at 10-1.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2019 Author Share Posted December 30, 2019 22 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Rgem has a little bullseye of 40-50 mm near Sandy Creek, probably over doing it some as that's 15"-20" at 10-1.. lol Need that band a few miles north off of Erie to hit me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Need that band a few miles north off of Erie to hit me. Is anyone else feeling deflated by this pattern? Even if we get snow coming up, it's not going to stick around to enjoy it much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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