Upstate/Eastern New York

[Syrmax]

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

We're on 88 pages, need to make a new thread soon.

End of Winter and Spring Planting tips?

[PaulyFromPlattsburgh]

undeniably md/hvy snow hours 27/28 so far on the nam. better initial waa so far. cant post image but evident on 12k nam and below freezing all layers at those frames. edit: tad colder than 18z and nice burst of snow from the initial stuff. 700mb 0c line is pushed 10 miles southwest of 18z. precip is also shunted a bit more prob cause of the high pressing down more this run.  Edit #2 Still snowing at hour 39. This 10-15 mile south push by the freezing line has kept me all snow so far this run. 10-20 miles to my south and west its sleeting and raining. Sharper precip cutoff gradient to the north and east this run also. 700mg stays between -1 to -2 consistently though 39. EDIT #3. at hr 45 we finally switch to some moderate sleet after some good initial snow, about 4-6 inches of heavy wet snow initially on the NAM taken into account 8:1 ratios.

[PaulyFromPlattsburgh]

comparing hour 39 of 0z at 700mv temps vs hour 45 on 18z you can see the freezing line is easily now 20 miles south and west of 18z same time frame. poor poor snow growth but wet snow at that eventually changing to sleet.

[cny rider]

"Upgraded" to an ice storm warning here.

Not something I desire.

Straddling the line on a rainy day tomorrow versus a potentially damaging ugly ice storm.

One of the rare times I would prefer the warmer solution.

 

 

[wolfie09]

Bottom of my snowpack is so frozen it's starting to crack lol

[wolfie09]

Models are starting to show more of a coastal storm for the 6th-7th..

[wolfie09]

[PaulyFromPlattsburgh]

1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

looks like they are expecting at least a moderate chance of some good lake effect in scattered spots. not a widespread event but something nonetheless

[rochesterdave]

I know you guys hate the icon but I bet it verifies better in the NE. WTF is NAM smoking- it’s been highlighting Albany with a foot for days. 

[wolfie09]

It's not the NAM lol

This is how models get a bad rap..

It's Tropical tidbits that's the issue .

[qg_omega]

Major ice storm for the Adirondacks inbound, especially the eastern

[PaulyFromPlattsburgh]

17 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Major ice storm for the Adirondacks inbound, especially the eastern

wow concerning for sure. looks like more ip for me and zr for areas further south and west. GGEM shows almost w inches of freezing rain accumalation in some spots.

 

[wolfie09]

Rgem starting to get into range, which is my personal LES go to model..

[TugHillMatt]

Another wasted week of winter upcoming. If only my wife would live in the UP!

[Syrmax]

27 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Another wasted week of winter upcoming. If only my wife would live in the UP!

KSYR is at about 75% of Normal snowfall for Dec (and Nov) and Dec avg monthly temp is within 0.1F of normal after a -5F November. So it's not the raw numbers but timing of the "Holiday Thaw" that is maddening, and seemingly recurrent over the past decade.  

We'll get back in the game by mid January.  Probably.

[TugHillMatt]

14 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

KSYR is at about 75% of Normal snowfall for Dec (and Nov) and Dec avg monthly temp is within 0.1F of normal after a -5F November. So it's not the raw numbers but timing of the "Holiday Thaw" that is maddening, and seemingly recurrent over the past decade.  

We'll get back in the game by mid January.  Probably.

This. 

[BuffaloWeather]

2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

This. 

You just need this to hit tug.

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2010-2011&event=C

[TugHillMatt]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

You just need this to hit tug.

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2010-2011&event=C

...and no cutter/thaw 2 days afterwards that ruins it!

[wolfie09]

15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

You just need this to hit tug.

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2010-2011&event=C

One of those rare events my area jackpots lol One of these days..

I'm also not sure Matt is rooting for the tug anymore as he is down in Baldwinsville lol

Speaking of the tug, some fantasy goodies..

[rochesterdave]

I kinda like this set up for BUF. But I know very little about their LES. 
Lake still running warm? 

[Buckeyes_Suck]

Pretty warm at the moment. Nice patch over 44F  if the band sits anywhere for a while we should see at least shoveable amounts  

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

I kinda like this set up for BUF. But I know very little about their LES. 
Lake still running warm? 

38 at Buffalo Harbor. 2* above average.


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[daxx]

1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

Another wasted week of winter upcoming. If only my wife would live in the UP!

I don't live anywhere in this sub, so a little hesitant to post.  I'm not sure why you would want to move so far, when in most years on the Tug it is an amazing place to live. I have stayed in many places on the Tug in the last 15 years for vacations. I found the best areas to be is just southeast of Lorraine to Worth, down to just 5 miles north of Redfield. I'm not an expert of the area at all, this is just first hand experience. Maybe you can convince your wife to move back north a short distance. I'm rooting for you guys to pile it up!  I will be up in February!

[CNY-LES FREAK]

Don't you just love the way the radar lights up when rain is forecasted and the exact opposite happens when snow's forecasted. It's like pulling teeth these days to get a decent, plowable event, WTF??

This is what happens when ppl root for an early start to the Winter season. Well, here you go all you early Winter lovers, lol, now enjoy the wretched rain with temps in the mid 30's, absolutely disgusting is all I can think of!

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[CNY-LES FREAK]

35F with rain falling on December 28th, bah humbug!!

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[Buffalo Bumble]

2 hours ago, daxx said:

I don't live anywhere in this sub, so a little hesitant to post.  I'm not sure why you would want to move so far, when in most years on the Tug it is an amazing place to live. I have stayed in many places on the Tug in the last 15 years for vacations. I found the best areas to be is just southeast of Lorraine to Worth, down to just 5 miles north of Redfield. I'm not an expert of the area at all, this is just first hand experience. Maybe you can convince your wife to move back north a short distance. I'm rooting for you guys to pile it up!  I will be up in February!

No question the Tug rocks in the winter.  But as we're seeing over the last couple weeks it's subject to big thaws that shred the snow pack.  Outside of maybe northern Maine, the UP is probably the most reliable location for both constant snow pack and cold east of the Rockies.  Lake effect snow is frequent.  When storms cut over NY or even to our west, it's usually a snowstorm for the UP.  Probably the place to be for the ultra snow lover who doesn't want to live in mountains out West.  

[TugHillMatt]

2 hours ago, daxx said:

I don't live anywhere in this sub, so a little hesitant to post.  I'm not sure why you would want to move so far, when in most years on the Tug it is an amazing place to live. I have stayed in many places on the Tug in the last 15 years for vacations. I found the best areas to be is just southeast of Lorraine to Worth, down to just 5 miles north of Redfield. I'm not an expert of the area at all, this is just first hand experience. Maybe you can convince your wife to move back north a short distance. I'm rooting for you guys to pile it up!  I will be up in February!

Hey, daxx. No problem at all about posting on here. This sub is very welcoming to outside visitors. I grew up as your neighbor in Lancaster county, so I am very familiar with "meh" winters.

I lived in the southern part of Redfield last winter, and it blew chunks. Doesn't look like they're doing much better this season. Waaaay too many thaws! That area has some pretty good snow retention though. As Buffalo Bumble stated, the UP is probably one of the best locations for consistent snow pack PLUS snowfall...particularly the northern UP. Marquette is actually a pretty busy city up there. I prefer the northern part of the UP, from Munising over to Houghton...for many reasons! The southeastern part is too flat, boring, and gets way less snow.

I am looking at potential places between here and the Fulton/Volney area. Volney seems to do the best in southern Oswego county.

18 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

No question the Tug rocks in the winter.  But as we're seeing over the last couple weeks it's subject to big thaws that shred the snow pack.  Outside of maybe northern Maine, the UP is probably the most reliable location for both constant snow pack and cold east of the Rockies.  Lake effect snow is frequent.  When storms cut over NY or even to our west, it's usually a snowstorm for the UP.  Probably the place to be for the ultra snow lover who doesn't want to live in mountains out West.  

 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Beast of a storm brewing!




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[wolfie09]

7 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Hey, daxx. No problem at all about posting on here. This sub is very welcoming to outside visitors. I grew up as your neighbor in Lancaster county, so I am very familiar with "meh" winters.

I lived in the southern part of Redfield last winter, and it blew chunks. Doesn't look like they're doing much better this season. Waaaay too many thaws! That area has some pretty good snow retention though. As Buffalo Bumble stated, the UP is probably one of the best locations for consistent snow pack PLUS snowfall...particularly the northern UP. Marquette is actually a pretty busy city up there. I prefer the northern part of the UP, from Munising over to Houghton...for many reasons! The southeastern part is too flat, boring, and gets way less snow.

I am looking at potential places between here and the Fulton/Volney area. Volney seems to do the best in southern Oswego county.

 

Yup, just north of Fulton to parish is a nice little hot spot, 3/4 of the WNW events will be in that area..

 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

RGEM has a nice but quick moving band setting up Tuesday night off Erie. Will be a close call on this thing swinging through the metro around midnight for the ball drop. Even if it’s not a big snowfall could end up being a neat event impact wise.




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