Thinksnow18 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 18 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: No the indices are correct. You have to use all of them to get a good idea. We have a raging Pacific. The AO can be negative 6 standard dev. and still be torch. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html True however the PNA index is basically neutral ATM and is trending positive in the very near term...is this more a factor of the IOD at this point being stuck in the MJO warm phases? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2019 Author Share Posted December 26, 2019 7 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: True however the PNA index is basically neutral ATM and is trending positive in the very near term...is this more a factor of the IOD at this point being stuck in the MJO warm phases? This is basically our setup right now. But yes MJO is having a huge influence on our weather, as it did last year. Lots of convection. We have a very strong PV where Alaska has been brutally cold. This leads to the Pacific air dominating the lower 48. There are no mechanisms to bring the cold air to our region. The one good thing is the PV is on our side of the globe, not in Siberia/Russia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Need to hope for this look in the near term.. Euro refuses to progress Eastward with the ULL/stacked LP.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 34 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: This is basically our setup right now. But yes MJO is having a huge influence on our weather, as it did last year. Lots of convection. We have a very strong PV where Alaska has been brutally cold. This leads to the Pacific air dominating the lower 48. There are no mechanisms to bring the cold air to our region. The one good thing is the PV is on our side of the globe, not in Siberia/Russia. And I have to admit that scenario you show surprises me due in large part to how warm the waters off the West Coast were aka the blob. That "should've" progressed into a large area of high pressure but handle not. I'm beginning to think this January turns out a lot like last Jan...warmish first two weeks, brutal and snowy last two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Gfs was a little colder overall with a little synoptic and lake effect .. Last 2 runs the ULL has gone just south of us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Cmc trended quicker towards the gfs/icon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 6 hours ago, WesterlyWx said: Northside on Hertel. I hope sidewalks get cleared better there than in much of 14215. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 27 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs was a little colder overall with a little synoptic and lake effect .. Last 2 runs the ULL has gone just south of us.. A Rochester special! Man, I gotta get out skiing once before Jackson Hole/ Big Sky. Everyone start praying to the snow gods 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Ggem actually lifts it North unlike gfs/icon, creates SW flow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Ggem actually lifts it North unlike gfs/icon, creates SW flow.. It is also colder for the synoptic delivering the goods. 16 inches plus of heavy wet snow verbatim on the CMC from both synoptic storms combined... seems like extreme north north east New York and Vermont New Hampshire and Maine have a chance at some big snows with this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Gfs barely has a dry day starting Sunday until the end of it's run..Some rain, some snow and a combination of both . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 32 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: A Rochester special! Man, I gotta get out skiing once before Jackson Hole/ Big Sky. Everyone start praying to the snow gods Hope you post a ski report. We have never been to either of those but thinking about Big Sky for next winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 This Bills game forecast still looks like a train wreck. The onset has been pulling back a little with each run so we might escape the rain during the tailgating portion of this useless affair, haha. Not looking forward to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 23 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: This Bills game forecast still looks like a train wreck. The onset has been pulling back a little with each run so we might escape the rain during the tailgating portion of this useless affair, haha. Not looking forward to this. If there's 35k fans there that'll be on the high side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: If there's 35k fans there that'll be on the high side i've been trying to convince my group of friends to just bail on it altogether. The tickets were only 50 bucks and paid for months ago. They don't seem to realize how lame and wet this is going to be, haha. If we do go, I'll be the best prepared, that I can guarantee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2019 Author Share Posted December 26, 2019 GEFS are cooler then normal from Dec 31st to end of run. Improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2019 Author Share Posted December 26, 2019 We go from this To this: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2019 Author Share Posted December 26, 2019 You can see the EPS showing something similar as the cold air from alaska modifies as it comes south. Cold air enters around Jan 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2019 Author Share Posted December 26, 2019 This coincides with the MJO going into phases 8/1/2. Quite a lot of spread still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Euro has zip, not surprising.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: You can see the EPS showing something similar as the cold air from alaska modifies as it comes south. Cold air enters around Jan 6th. So as usual blend the two camps...GFS notoriously fast and EPS notoriously lagging...that puts us back in the game around this time next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Euro lifts the stacked low North.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2019 Author Share Posted December 26, 2019 End of Euro finally shows some cold air entering the GL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Euro lifts the stacked low North.. Euro is a monster hit for my area between both rounds!!! Similar to CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 6 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: Euro is a monster hit for my area between both rounds!!! Similar to CMC. Doesn’t look like that to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: Doesn’t look like that to me I am in extreme north/ northeastern NY by Montreal Canada border right across from Burlington on a ferry. In fact for my area both models I mentioned show some long duration snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2019 Author Share Posted December 26, 2019 Buffalo is -1.9 inches for snowfall departure on the year. We are only .6 above normal for temps in December, that likely goes up a lot next few days. Nov: -4.9 Degs Oct: +1.5 Degs Sep: +3.0 Degs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 30 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Most of those maps are showing sleet as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Pivotal doesn't show sleet as snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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