PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 I will take this run. Maybe being so far north and east will help me this time. We will see. In the purple for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 Merry Christmas everyone. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 Merry Christmas! Something will give in a week or so. Stay strong players 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 Small window for some LES as alluded to by the NWS . Albeit nothing to write home about.. The air mass is only modestly cold for late December with its core only down to around -12C at 850mb. This will support a brief lake response with snow showers east of the lakes on Tuesday. This may provide a narrow window for accumulating lake snows, but given the marginal nature of the instability it appears to be a relatively minor lake event.. Gfs and Canadian show it, euro does not.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 Merry Xmas everyone. Forgot to post I am now living in Amherst. Near Amherst High school off Main Street. Probably average a little less snow here than in West Seneca but not much as West Seneca was usually in the transition zone. Watch now 2nd or 3rd week of January will be a blockbuster 4 footer over West Seneca while I watch the clouds off to my south but no big deal, I am a mailman now so warm and no snow is absolutely fine by me when I'm walking 12-16 miles a day lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 23 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Merry Xmas everyone. Forgot to post I am now living in Amherst. Near Amherst High school off Main Street. Probably average a little less snow here than in West Seneca but not much as West Seneca was usually in the transition zone. Watch now 2nd or 3rd week of January will be a blockbuster 4 footer over West Seneca while I watch the clouds off to my south but no big deal, I am a mailman now so warm and no snow is absolutely fine by me when I'm walking 12-16 miles a day lol. You had a rough few years of horrible transitional events but I think West Seneca is ground zero for the heaviest snow Lake Erie can produce in the absolute picture perfect event. They just seem to be exceedingly rare as of late. What was their number in the 2014 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 28 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: You had a rough few years of horrible transitional events but I think West Seneca is ground zero for the heaviest snow Lake Erie can produce in the absolute picture perfect event. They just seem to be exceedingly rare as of late. What was their number in the 2014 storm? Around 80-90” with most of that coming from “round 1” with nearly 60” in about 24 hours. However that is nearly a once in a lifetime event and you have to live there a long time to make up for all the times you get screwed during 9 outta 10 events that transitions right through South Buffalo and West Seneca. However like you said it seems to be coming increasingly more rare or we just got on a lucky streak with several major events occurring almost every 4-5 years on the dot... 1995, 2000 (November) , 2001 (December), 2006 (October), 2010 (December), 2014 (Snowvember). So according to history WS is due for a big one this season haha! Not so sure it’ll happen this year though as the pattern for the next several weeks looks progressive and mild then she starts to freeze up for the year by Late January; but like the NYS lottery, hey you never know... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 938 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Just now, rochesterdave said: 936 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2019 Author Share Posted December 26, 2019 Took this today along the Lake. Just perfect conditions for a walk. I take for granted how incredible it is living near a large body of water, the sunsets throughout the year are so beautiful. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2019 Author Share Posted December 26, 2019 4 hours ago, WesterlyWx said: Around 80-90” with most of that coming from “round 1” with nearly 60” in about 24 hours. However that is nearly a once in a lifetime event and you have to live there a long time to make up for all the times you get screwed during 9 outta 10 events that transitions right through South Buffalo and West Seneca. However like you said it seems to be coming increasingly more rare or we just got on a lucky streak with several major events occurring almost every 4-5 years on the dot... 1995, 2000 (November) , 2001 (December), 2006 (October), 2010 (December), 2014 (Snowvember). So according to history WS is due for a big one this season haha! Not so sure it’ll happen this year though as the pattern for the next several weeks looks progressive and mild then she starts to freeze up for the year by Late January; but like the NYS lottery, hey you never know... I would put a few more events in west seneca almost hitting jackpot zone. Besides ski country they had biggest total for this event. These are just the larger ones that come to mind, they've been hit by quite a few small-mid size events. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2016-2017&event=E Nearly top total for this one https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2017-2018&event=C Did good in this one https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2018-2019&event=E and this one https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2018-2019&event=G 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2019 Author Share Posted December 26, 2019 You were here for this one. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2013-2014&event=G 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 We always joke about the transition zone here but that little strip of Lackawanna South Buffalo West Seneca really can be a sweet spot. Personally I think that area can see the highest snowfall rates from an Erie band. Don’t know if it’s an orographical feature or maybe a added convergence area helping fire up the band in the spot? Even on a pure SW full fetch event like Nov2000 the snowfall rates only maxed at 4”/hr. The transition zone area seeing 3”/hr rates can be pretty common. The first January event last year we caught that surprise southward shift and the band intensified to 3-4”/hr rates over us with a foot in like 4 hours. Can also remember many storms here with 6”/hr rates all the way up to 8”/hr rates like Nov2014. This area is also common spot for moving bands to stall out and intensify over for short periods of time. And yes the cycle seems to be a decent more memorable storm every 4-5 years hitting this area. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Took this today along the Lake. Just perfect conditions for a walk. I take for granted how incredible it is living near a large body of water, the sunsets throughout the year are so beautiful. Crazy nice weather today. Saw people golfing at Caz Park this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2019 Author Share Posted December 26, 2019 6 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: We always joke about the transition zone here but that little strip of Lackawanna South Buffalo West Seneca really can be a sweet spot. Personally I think that area can see the highest snowfall rates from an Erie band. Don’t know if it’s an orographical feature or maybe a added convergence area helping fire up the band in the spot? Even on a pure SW full fetch event like Nov2000 the snowfall rates only maxed at 4”/hr. The transition zone area seeing 3”/hr rates can be pretty common. The first January event last year we caught that surprise southward shift and the band intensified to 3-4”/hr rates over us with a foot in like 4 hours. Can also remember many storms here with 6”/hr rates all the way up to 8”/hr rates like Nov2014. This area is also common spot for moving bands to stall out and intensify over for short periods of time. And yes the cycle seems to be a decent more memorable storm every 4-5 years hitting this area. . Yeah the farther south you go the more lake effect snow events you receive. It's pretty simple as the predominant winds in winter are NW and least common SSW. We probably average 1-2 more events a winter than those in the "transition" zone and 3-5 more events then those around the airport. But its rare for us to get hit on a NW flow here as its more common in NE Erie County. We need W-SW flow or we miss out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2019 Author Share Posted December 26, 2019 GFS and GEM showing a decent 12-18 hour window of possible LES band Tues-Weds timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2019 Author Share Posted December 26, 2019 Canada is just on fire for the next 10 days. It shows it cooling down around Jan 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 49 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: We always joke about the transition zone here but that little strip of Lackawanna South Buffalo West Seneca really can be a sweet spot. Personally I think that area can see the highest snowfall rates from an Erie band. Don’t know if it’s an orographical feature or maybe a added convergence area helping fire up the band in the spot? Even on a pure SW full fetch event like Nov2000 the snowfall rates only maxed at 4”/hr. The transition zone area seeing 3”/hr rates can be pretty common. The first January event last year we caught that surprise southward shift and the band intensified to 3-4”/hr rates over us with a foot in like 4 hours. Can also remember many storms here with 6”/hr rates all the way up to 8”/hr rates like Nov2014. This area is also common spot for moving bands to stall out and intensify over for short periods of time. And yes the cycle seems to be a decent more memorable storm every 4-5 years hitting this area. . https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2016-2017&event=E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 7 hours ago, WesterlyWx said: Merry Xmas everyone. Forgot to post I am now living in Amherst. Near Amherst High school off Main Street. Probably average a little less snow here than in West Seneca but not much as West Seneca was usually in the transition zone. Watch now 2nd or 3rd week of January will be a blockbuster 4 footer over West Seneca while I watch the clouds off to my south but no big deal, I am a mailman now so warm and no snow is absolutely fine by me when I'm walking 12-16 miles a day lol. You’re not far from me. What’s your assigned station? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 3 hours ago, WNash said: You’re not far from me. What’s your assigned station? Northside on Hertel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 6z GFS was south with the ULL so the snow was farther south..lol All about the positioning of that feature..For here I want it just north of us, like the icon and previous GFS runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 you know it's grim for snow when even Joe Bastard resorts to shilling transient cold shots out in almost mid January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2019 Author Share Posted December 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: you know it's grim for snow when even Joe Bastard resorts to shilling transient cold shots out in almost mid January. We need that PV to weaken. All the cold is bottled up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Models trying to bring back the euro idea from few days ago Sunday night, GFS wants nothing to do with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2019 Author Share Posted December 26, 2019 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2019 Author Share Posted December 26, 2019 GEFS look good. Don't need really cold temps in January. Get the cold air in Upstate and you're basically guarenteed snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2019 Author Share Posted December 26, 2019 EPS are similar to GEFS in same timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: lol What I find fascinating is the AO is negative right now and we're warmish...wonder if this is one of those seasons where the indicators don't preclude the actual weather... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2019 Author Share Posted December 26, 2019 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: What I find fascinating is the AO is negative right now and we're warmish...wonder if this is one of those seasons where the indicators don't preclude the actual weather... No the indices are correct. You have to use all of them to get a good idea. We have a raging Pacific. The AO can be negative 6 standard dev. and still be torch. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: lol +5 wow. Big storms happen around sudden and drastic (+5-8 variation in 10 day period)pattern shifts like this notorious for something to pop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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