TugHillMatt Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 On both runs, a warmup commences right after the systems. Yawn... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 Looks like we will back our way into a white Christmas lol Still about 6"-7" in the open areas, only a couple more hours of warming today, forecast tomorrow is around freezing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 I'm at work and can't check myself, but the fact that nobody is saying a word about the Euro tells me it can't be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2019 Author Share Posted December 23, 2019 50 and sunny here. If it's not going to snow I'll take this every day. Going to go for a walk a long the water after work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2019 Author Share Posted December 23, 2019 Way out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 40 minutes ago, cny rider said: I'm at work and can't check myself, but the fact that nobody is saying a word about the Euro tells me it can't be good. Caved to GFS for weekend threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 The main vort associated with this system goes off the SE coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 We see Some light rain from a northern stream disturbance but the southern system just meanders lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 From this point onward through the rest of the long term period, there is significant uncertainty within the model guidance that will impact temperatures, precipitation timing, and precipitation type. The GFS and GEFS mean are in utter disarray, while similarly, the GFS and ECMWF place the CWA on opposite sides of the low-level pattern such that the differences at 850 hPa exceed 15C. This yields an extremely low confidence forecast for most of the extended beyond Friday. That said, blended model guidance was largely favored with little confidence in any of the poorly clustered operational guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 Gfs is phase happy, more so than any other guidance.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 Snowstorm in Florida on 18z gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 18 minutes ago, tim123 said: Snowstorm in Florida on 18z gfs You ain’t kidding just wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 I had to go find it lol I'm moving south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 I was noticing that on the 12z run today when the 528dm line made an appearance in deep Florida. Definitely the first time I've ever seen anything like that; even if its 300hrs out. I guess thats the way you get snow in Southern Florida which has supposedly happened a couple times over US history. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 31 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I had to go find it lol I'm moving south.. Ha that would be a legit blizzard. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 35 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I was noticing that on the 12z run today when the 528dm line made an appearance in deep Florida. Definitely the first time I've ever seen anything like that; even if its 300hrs out. I guess thats the way you get snow in Southern Florida which has supposedly happened a couple times over US history. Such a scenario would work wonders on the invasive species problem, namely pythons and iguanas. I have first hand experience with the later when a six foot iguana started sunning himself right next to my pool chair at the fountainblue back in September. Wild. Glad it wasn’t a snake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 19 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: Such a scenario would work wonders on the invasive species problem, namely pythons and iguanas. I have first hand experience with the later when a six foot iguana started sunning himself right next to my pool chair at the fountainblue back in September. Wild. Glad it wasn’t a snake. I was just reading about the iguana problem. I guess a nice long week of fairly cold temps are what are needed to really knock them back as they can handle a couple days of cold. Apparently its been several years since a "prolonged" cold air outbreak and their numbers are blossoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 0z GFS has a decent SW band off Erie a mere 18 hours after the Bills game on Sunday. Maybe something to track.. Otherwise looks like a complete washout for the game as things currently stand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Just now, DeltaT13 said: 0z GFS has a decent SW band off Erie a mere 18 hours after the Bills game on Sunday. Maybe something to track.. Otherwise looks like a complete washout for the game as things currently stand. Euro really dropped the ball on this one along with Canadian. GFS new king of the long range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2019 Author Share Posted December 24, 2019 Looks like it snows quite a bit in Florida along the panhandle. I was talking to my uncle about it when I was just down there near Miami, he said the only time its snowed that far south is 1977. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snow_in_Florida https://miami.cbslocal.com/2012/01/19/35-years-ago-today-snow-in-miami/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2019 Author Share Posted December 24, 2019 3 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: I was just reading about the iguana problem. I guess a nice long week of fairly cold temps are what are needed to really knock them back as they can handle a couple days of cold. Apparently its been several years since a "prolonged" cold air outbreak and their numbers are blossoming. You have to see the video I have of the iguana at the palm beach zoo down there. They are literally everywhere. https://imgur.com/hMDLT2Y Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 I think I'll take my chances with a cutter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Interesting thing about the European is it wants to develop a couple waves of LP inland...If the front was just a little farther east. Gfs has flirted with this idea as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Gfs the clear winner with this one, at least in terms of phasing over the middle of the country.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Still a a lot to be ironed out.. This is after a ton of rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 You can see much better ridge placement on the 12z vs previous runs. The western shortwave is slightly weaker and rotates further southwest instead of getting sucked into the flow allowing more pieces from the north to funnel down. Looks like a very interesting run ahead. I can’t post images for some reason. At HR168 you can see the PJ halted for a sec there stopping those building heights. At HR 180 you can see that SW about 150 miles west mitigating the flow. significant LE event for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Yeah you ain't kidding lol Still 150+hrs out though which sucks haha ULL goes just to our north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Just now, wolfie09 said: Yeah you ain't kidding lol Still 150+hrs out though which sucks haha ULL goes just to our north. Yes much better wind positioning and ULL for LE for you guys! Big run early on for the first shortwave. You can see much better ridge placement on the 12z vs previous runs. The western shortwave is slightly weaker and rotates further southwest instead of getting sucked into the flow allowing more pieces from the north to funnel down. Looks like a very interesting run ahead. I can’t post images for some reason. At HR168 you can see the PJ halted for a sec there stopping those building heights. At HR 180 you can see that SW about 150 miles west mitigating the flow. Gfs wobbling back and forth on where to put that SW. by keeping the SW further west we allow for a better polar connection as evident on 12 z starting at 168 compared to previous runs. On top of that the whole evolution of what happens after day 7 is skewed. The 6z will use that SW to build the next storm while the 12z will extrapolate a whole different solution. I would rather have that SW hold back a bit tbh, HR 192 that SW about 250 miles east of 12z by Texas while it was in the eastern pacific on 6z. From 168-198 u can see 12z just dropping in northern wave short wave troughs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 HR 216 GFS is classic honestly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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