TugHillMatt Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 Down in the mountains of PA for the week. Surprised much of the inch of snow that is here survived the mid 40s today. I guess low dewpoint helps. How did the pack do in the Syracuse area and rest of Upstate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 18z wants to retrograde that SW back into the pacific thus allowing anice ridge to build in. Vs previous runs. 18z too 12z bottom. I see good trends coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 1 minute ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: 18z wants to retrograde that SW back into the pacific thus allowing anice ridge to build in. Vs previous runs. 18z too 12z bottom. I see good trends coming Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 January 4th on extreme cold per the GfS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 Happy holidays Fellas i will leave you with this for the night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 4 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Down in the mountains of PA for the week. Surprised much of the inch of snow that is here survived the mid 40s today. I guess low dewpoint helps. How did the pack do in the Syracuse area and rest of Upstate? I'm almost down to bare grass here in Buffalo i think by tomorrow all of it will be gone lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2019 Author Share Posted December 23, 2019 Yeah latest trends do not look good in the long range, literally all signs pointed to a great winter but if we get skunked from mid Dec to mid january there is virtually no way we get above average snowfall. We have about an inch here and 3-4" in Eden. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 14 hours ago, qg_omega said: Looks good to me, euro snows in the dacks, gfs big rain, cmc nothing. I favor GFS given it’s been kicking butt in the long range Models now caving to GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 End of the run looks just like the beginning of the run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 Look it's almost fruitless at this point to even try and decipher what's going to happen...the GEFS shows a cold outbreak...then the euro weeklies show a great pattern fron the end of week one on through the end of January. Everything has changed more than a conflicted chameleon. I'm not expecting much to make sense until it does and even then I'll do so with reservation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 The northern stream might as well be in Siberia haha It's one after another on the European, all the cold air bottled to the north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 As of DEC 19th North Redfield had 3" more inches than Rochester lol She is headed for an all time worst year if things don't improve soon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 20 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: The northern stream might as well be in Siberia haha It's one after another on the European, all the cold air bottled to the north.. Yikes...Hopefully temps creep back near normal by around NY’s and we end up on the favorable side of storm tracks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 Just now, wolfie09 said: As of DEC 19th North Redfield had 3" more inches than Rochester lol She is headed for an all time worst year if things don't improve soon.. Crazy. But then again it seems like the trend throughout the ‘10’s is for winter to not really kick in until mid January. If any silver lining this week, the lakes shouldn’t be losing any heat...Maybe Erie even jumps a degree or 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 13 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: As of DEC 19th North Redfield had 3" more inches than Rochester lol She is headed for an all time worst year if things don't improve soon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2019 Author Share Posted December 23, 2019 Don't worry guys day after tomorrow is coming at end of GFS run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 Bro that map is so off its not even funny.. Kroc has 39" not 53" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 17 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: What a horrible post, lol! Not even remotely close to reality but it's time of forgiveness so I forgive you but Merry Christmas Dave, lol! Fun begins right after Christmas and especially the New Year so I'll stay positive during this upcoming holiday week. Pretty much a guaranteed white Christmas for us, dont know about the rest of the CWA but We'll be OK, just cause! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Oh you soothe soothsayer you! While Freak is enjoying his white Christmas and very excellent period, just following Christmas, the rest of us will be experiencing reality. I love him though. I really do. The outbursts have grown on me. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2019 Author Share Posted December 23, 2019 The one eyed pig near Alaska is showing up and once it does it takes awhile to move if it ever does. 2011-2012 featured it. It's a terrible look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2019 Author Share Posted December 23, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 If u don't have this site yet u should lol Here is Webster NY which has about 10" less than Rochester proper.. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datasets/GHCND/stations/GHCND:USC00300608/detail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2019 Author Share Posted December 23, 2019 CFS weeklies for the first time in history show BN temps and AN precip for a period during the winter. Models are just so bad now a days, seems like they are getting worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 14 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: If u don't have this site yet u should lol Here is Webster NY which has about 10" less than Rochester proper.. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datasets/GHCND/stations/GHCND:USC00300608/detail Webster hasn’t been in the sweet spot. Areas away from the lake have- Pittsford, Penfield, Walworth and Airport (especially the airport ) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: CFS weeklies for the first time in history show BN temps and AN precip for a period during the winter. Models are just so bad now a days, seems like they are getting worse. It’s incredible to me that they’re getting worse- although it seems they are. Especially if you compare the Euro from 2-3 years ago. Ive had opportunity to see some of the advancements in what’s called : deep learning technology and I can’t believe it’s yet to be implemented into this field?!?! Deep learning is going to revolutionize data analysis. Up until recently, most Computer data was comprised of a majority of noise. The value portion, at least in Radiology, was 20%. Deep Learning wipes away that 80%, which is Useless noise, and leaves you with a superior product. I wonder when this will happen in the models? Maybe it has? I’m in the weeds here but it’s area that fascinates me (in a layman’s way). Take a single data point, say temperature, at KROC, on Dec 23, at 1200, up until now, most computers would assess this temperature on an open scale, it says, “jeez, this temp could be anywhere from 0kelvin to ~ kelvin. Deep Learning says, “nah, remove all that nonsense, we know this temp will be between -20f and 80f.” It doesn’t seem like much. But in the end you’re opening up tremendous opportunities and narrowing noise and error and speeding things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Bro that map is so off its not even funny.. Kroc has 39" not 53" Same for KSYR, we are around 30", not 50 something... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 12 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: It’s incredible to me that they’re getting worse- although it seems they are. Especially if you compare the Euro from 2-3 years ago. Ive had opportunity to see some of the advancements in what’s called : deep learning technology and I can’t believe it’s yet to be implemented into this field?!?! Deep learning is going to revolutionize data analysis. Up until recently, most Computer data was comprised of a majority of noise. The value portion, at least in Radiology, was 20%. Deep Learning wipes away that 80%, which is Useless noise, and leaves you with a superior product. I wonder when this will happen in the models? Maybe it has? I’m in the weeds here but it’s area that fascinates me (in a layman’s way). Take a single data point, say temperature, at KROC, on Dec 23, at 1200, up until now, most computers would assess this temperature on an open scale, it says, “jeez, this temp could be anywhere from 0kelvin to ~ kelvin. Deep Learning says, “nah, remove all that nonsense, we know this temp will be between -20f and 80f.” It doesn’t seem like much. But in the end you’re opening up tremendous opportunities and narrowing noise and error and speeding things up. I've already incorporated "Deep Learning" into my snowfall forecast analysis/expectations. Just take the 9 in 10 (Low End Amount) probability snowfall NWS puts out for a given system and call it a day. Maybe you blend it with the "Expected" snowfall, if you are feeling bullish, and take an average or massage the data with the fuzzy maths of your choice.. Easy Peasy. Done and Dusted. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2019 Author Share Posted December 23, 2019 Not looking good. 2019 began with a major sudden stratospheric warming, with the #PolarVortex splitting in two. 2020 is set to begin with the opposite! An intensification of the vortex, with strong westerlies descending in the GFS (after a briefly weaker period due to amplified wave-2). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 Pretty unique storm track lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now