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1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

My mother often brings up a real warm Christmas when I was a very small child.  I started trying to find the year she was referencing and I turned up this ridiculous monthly data from Buffalo for December 1982.  Look at the first 6 days of the month!

A high of 64, 68, 74, 68, 67, and 57.  Thats freaking nuts.  It then went on to hit 64 on Christmas day and 67 on the 28th.  What an absolute scorcher or a month and yet we still managed to get almost 13 inches of snow and had 2 days with temps in the single digits.  Thats weird wild stuff, what a rollercoaster ride.  

982-12-01 64 47 55.5 20.5 9 0 0.00 0.0 0
1982-12-02 68 52 60.0 25.4 5 0 T 0.0 0
1982-12-03 74 60 67.0 32.8 0 2 0.00 0.0 0
1982-12-04 68 45 56.5 22.7 8 0 0.19 0.0 0
1982-12-05 67 45 56.0 22.5 9 0 0.23 0.0 0
1982-12-06 57 37 47.0 13.9 18 0 0.03 0.0 0
1982-12-07 44 32 38.0 5.3 27 0 0.00 0.0 0
1982-12-08 44 27 35.5 3.1 29 0 0.04 0.4 0
1982-12-09 31 7 19.0 -13.0 46 0 0.14 2.4 3
1982-12-10 35 7 21.0 -10.7 44 0 0.03 0.3 2
1982-12-11 34 19 26.5 -4.9 38 0 T T 2
1982-12-12 25 13 19.0 -12.0 46 0 0.01 0.2 1
1982-12-13 29 11 20.0 -10.7 45 0 T T 1
1982-12-14 42 27 34.5 4.1 30 0 0.00 0.0 1
1982-12-15 46 42 44.0 13.9 21 0 0.33 0.0 T
1982-12-16 49 21 35.0 5.2 30 0 0.49 0.1 0
1982-12-17 22 13 17.5 -12.0 47 0 T T T
1982-12-18 37 12 24.5 -4.7 40 0 0.00 0.0 T
1982-12-19 36 27 31.5 2.6 33 0 0.40 4.0 T
1982-12-20 32 28 30.0 1.3 35 0 0.45 4.8 5
1982-12-21 33 28 30.5 2.1 34 0 0.04 0.4 8
1982-12-22 33 28 30.5 2.3 34 0 0.01 0.1 7
1982-12-23 45 33 39.0 11.1 26 0 0.09 0.1 6
1982-12-24 56 45 50.5 22.8 14 0 0.02 0.0 T
1982-12-25 64 55 59.5 32.0 5 0 0.57 0.0 0
1982-12-26 55 29 42.0 14.7 23 0 T 0.0 0
1982-12-27 51 28 39.5 12.4 25 0 0.18 0.0 0
1982-12-28 67 36 51.5 24.6 13 0 0.06 0.0 0
1982-12-29 36 27 31.5 4.8 33 0 T T 0
1982-12-30 27 19 23.0 -3.5 42 0 T T 0
1982-12-31 33 18 25.5 -0.8 39 0 0.01 0.1 0

82-83 was a terrible El Nino year. My dad had started a factory that made fiberglass wicks for kerosene heaters, a market that had boomed in those days when home heating oil was widely used insanely expensive. That warm winter literally put him out of business!

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3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Gfs was quite active in it's LR with 5 storms from Christmas to the end of it's run. 

I Know it looks like cutter central but the gfs has strong HP after Strong HP to our north.. Timing of these features won't be known for a while. 

I still think some of those storms will become snowstorms for us...question is when  will the CWA see it's first true lake effect set up that lasts for days?

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17 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Gfs was quite active in it's LR with 5 storms from Christmas to the end of it's run. 

I Know it looks like cutter central but the gfs has strong HP after Strong HP to our north.. Timing of these features won't be known for a while. 

U can see on the gfs these storms have no choice but to eventually go east due to the confluence.. Hopefully that trends stronger/better positioned as we get closer..

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50 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

U can see on the gfs these storms have no choice but to eventually go east due to the confluence.. Hopefully that trends stronger/better positioned as we get closer..

ezgif.com-resize (16).gif

Yeah but the pacific is terrible it’s a jet of warm air. Definitely an outside chance of an event if everything works out perfectly but overall low percentage pattern. Also literally zero chance of lake effect. 

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3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah but the pacific is terrible it’s a jet of warm air. Definitely an outside chance of an event if everything works out perfectly but overall low percentage pattern. Also literally zero chance of lake effect. 

Yeah we have had a few winters this decade where a progressive, Pacific-influenced pattern dominated, and they were very poor snow seasons, far below the seasonal average. It’s depressing to think that the 27 or so inches that have fallen so far this season could represent half of the total seasonal snowfall at kbuf.

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36 minutes ago, WNash said:

Yeah we have had a few winters this decade where a progressive, Pacific-influenced pattern dominated, and they were very poor snow seasons, far below the seasonal average. It’s depressing to think that the 27 or so inches that have fallen so far this season could represent half of the total seasonal snowfall at kbuf.

I mean I'm at 33" and it's not officially winter until Dec 21st. Right on track I would think, going to need a few decent LES events to catch up. The next 10 days look blah and its close to peak LES season. At least the lake should remain warm. Just got back from star wars, the end of a 40 year series. Can't believe its over. I walked outside the theater to some of the prettiest snow ever. Nice band moved through from Ontario. Just goes to show you, get the cold and we will almost always finish above normal snowfall.

codnexlab.NEXRAD.BUF.N0Q.20191220.647.02

 

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Im glad someone said it. I won’t name names but there was a lot of hype about lake effect potential and upgrading to warnings, blah blah blah. And as usual, Monroe county came in with an anemic amount of snow.  To be honest I think we got about 1.5 inches of total snow combining the arctic front and lake effect. You can’t just hype every storm. You lose your validity.   Additionally, the Rochester ASOS is out to lunch. 

10 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Highest total was 15” off Erie and 17” off of Ontario. Rochester with the highest total in Monroe county as usual, definitely measuring wrong there. Can’t get highest total in county every event, at least make it a little less obvious... :lol:

 

 

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