SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 WWA now for Buf out to Roc. 3-5” for lower elevations. Been off the grid for last 2 days where did this thing come from? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Maybe. I see Roc in the 5-8. BUF 6 sounds right. Syracuse screwed, again. Anyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 700’s colder on RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Just now, rochesterdave said: Maybe. I see Roc in the 5-8. BUF 6 sounds right. Syracuse screwed, again. Anyone else? You're probably right. I'm telling you...it's because I moved here!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 All going to hinge on how fast the low deepens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Arw is the only SR model without at least 0 .60" LE in the form of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Interesting...All of the HRWs and the NAMs are showing 6 inches for northern Onondaga County (SYRmax and myself) The Rgem even looks better. Defo. bands, if they actually form/hold together can dump some very decent amounts in a short period of time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 I think areas of WNY will be upgraded to a WSW tomorrow...thinking the Chautauqua ridge, southern Erie County and Wyoming county...i think Buffalo out to Batavia and North to Rochester are looking at high end advisory when all is said and done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Models not doing what I hoped this 0z. Hmmm. So close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Now this is what you call a nowcast storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 GFS says what snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Does that surprise you? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 The GFS Hi-res is the grinchiest when it comes to "giving" snow... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Gfs came in a little south with the Tues system as well.. Solid for the Syracuse crew.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Hrdps was a big hit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 2 to 3 inch snowfall rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 I'm fascinated by the prospect of a rapidly deepening sub 980mb low over the adirondacks. That really doesnt happen often at all. Certainly not a classic high wind track but its got to end up producing some pretty damn gusty winds on the South shore of Lake Ontario. Combine that wind with some concrete like snow and we might even have some branches down and power outages. Also wondering if they will extend those lakeshore flood watches. The water levels are so high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 44 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Models not doing what I hoped this 0z. Hmmm. So close! Take a close look at the 0z high res nam, it pops a surface low in deep convection off the east coast which rides up towards boston before backbuilding and jumping back over PA where the strongest upper level support is developing. I think the drop in precip on that 0z NAM run might be related to convective feedback,(however sometimes the surface low really will track with that deep convection) where the 18z run maintains the primary low over PA. Anyway something to keep an eye on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Delta, the other thing that u mentioned is important. The LP will be rapidly deepening as it passes East of us. Deepening lows always have surprising dynamics and a colder NW quadrant. im in agreement, this is a fascinating scenario. I’m not sure anyone can be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 On 12/12/2019 at 5:50 PM, CNY-LES FREAK said: Cause its gonna rain, lol, and whoever is praying that somehow the cold air, we so desperately need, will win out over the warmth that's being forecasted because that's not gonna happen cause there is no mechanism to tap it, simple as that! That's not gonna change either in 2 days so..... Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk LOL 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 All the globals are warm, Ggem, icon , gfs etc.. Hopefully they just aren't picking up dynamic cooling..They all look elevation dependent including the rgem.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: All the globals are warm, Ggem, icon , gfs etc.. Hopefully they just aren't picking up dynamic cooling..They all look elevation dependent including the rgem.. Yup, definitely noticed that. Isn't this the time range in which we sort of put the globals aside and look at the mesoscale models...before the time range in which we ignore them all and look out the window? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: All the globals are warm, Ggem, icon , gfs etc.. Hopefully they just aren't picking up dynamic cooling..They all look elevation dependent including the rgem.. Lower levels are pretty damn warm. Mid upper 30’s to 45 around SYR. It’s gotta be dynamic if it’s gonna happen. My optimism has gone from an 8-5 with the 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Gfs ensembles are way diffrent than op 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Lower levels are pretty damn warm. Mid upper 30’s to 45 around SYR. It’s gotta be dynamic if it’s gonna happen. My optimism has gone from an 8-5 with the 0z. Yep will wait and see tomorrow, I’m off to bed have fun tracking this thing lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 I would think with such a dynamic system, that cold air would get wrapped in efficiently and brought down to the surface. At the same time, I could very much see what the GFS is showing, as we have lots of milder air being pumped into systems so far this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 8 minutes ago, tim123 said: Good catch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Is it just me or are we behing a couple weeks on a big lake snow event. Lot of energy waiting to be tapped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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