wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I'd say 3/4 of those are good hits for WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 WWAs up for SW NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 3 hours ago, Syrmax said: It's still early, like the 1st Quarter of the game, but KSYR getting blitzed hard for the Golden Snowball. Gonna need to make some halftime adjustments or we gonna get blown the f*ck out like the NY Giants. Buffalo is a first half team in the Golden Snowball Bowl, by the time the second half rolls around Lake Erie will be frozen solid and we'll have to dink and dunk our way to the end of the game. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Told you only sw ny would get any flags Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 3 hours ago, rochesterdave said: I’ve had the luckiest week of my life. Passed my MR Registry (medical imaging board), got an unexpected raise, had a great trip to Chicago. If this thing happens, after jumping on it early, I’ll go buy a bunch of lottery tickets. Congratulations! Now all you need is days and days of northwest flow LES to cap off the year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 There is still a high degree of model spread concerning snow amounts for Saturday afternoon and night, especially across Western NY. The 12Z NAM, and all the high resolution NAM based guidance significantly increased snowfall across Western NY, with much higher QPF developing in the cold air later Saturday afternoon and evening. The GFS and Canadian GEM are a little slower with the change to snow, and also have less QPF following the change to snow. The past few runs of the ECMWF are a compromise between the NAM and GFS based guidance, and seems most reasonable. Cold advection to the west of the deepening cyclone will only initially cool the column to a near isothermal layer at or just below freezing Saturday afternoon and evening. Surface temperatures will fall to near or just above the freezing mark during this time. Given this scenario, snow:water ratios will be low, likely less than 10:1 through early Saturday evening before improving overnight as the column and surface grow colder. Given the above expectations, we have increased the speed of changeover to snow in the new forecast, and also increased snow amounts, but not to the extent of the NAM and high-res NAM based guidance. The latest forecast is for 4-8 inches across the higher terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge, Boston Hills, and Wyoming County with the highest amounts along the Chautauqua Ridge with upslope enhancement later in the event. We will start with a high end advisory for now. It is possible some of this area may reach low end warning criteria, especially if the forecast trends towards the more aggressive NAM solutions. Went with 2-4 inches across the lower elevations of Western NY, and 1-3 inches for points southeast of Lake Ontario with a later change to snow. Again, if the more aggressive NAM solution is correct these amounts will be higher. East of Lake Ontario, the higher terrain of the Tug Hill plateau may see 4-7 inches, with 2-4 inches across lower elevations. Most of this will occur later Saturday night into Sunday morning once westerly upslope and lake enhancement develop. This area may need an advisory as well, but given ongoing uncertainties with this system will hold off on the headline for now in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Next up, a southern stream system will develop across the Tennessee Valley Monday. This system will track just to our south and east into Monday night which would keep a majority of us on the northern side of the low. We will again, be under the influence of the right entrance region of a 150kt upper level jet while a deformation zone develops across NYS Monday night. At this time, snow looks likely Monday into Monday night however the track of the low is in close proximity to NYS. Shifts in the track may bring in warmer air and cut down on snow chances. Based on 12z 12/13 guidance, a few inches is possible across the entire region through Monday night. High temperatures will range from the upper 20s east of Lake Ontario to the low to mid 30s across western NY Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low pressure will strengthen as it reaches the Canadian maritimes which will establish a cold northwesterly flow across our region. 850 mb temperatures will drop to around -20C which is plenty cold enough to support lake effect snow into mid-week. The amount of moisture will depend on how developed the mid level low and there lies some model disagreement. There will be at least some lake response Tuesday night and Wednesday which may linger into Wednesday night. It will be a west to northwest flow during this period, with the potential to produce significant accumulations depending on how it plays out. Still way too early for specific snow amounts, but stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 There is still a high degree of model spread concerning snow amounts for Saturday afternoon and night, especially across Western NY. Again, if the more aggressive NAM solution is correct these amounts will be higher. Interesting such short timing. Bust potential - HIGH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Haha I guess this is what happens when u flip earlier.. It would be nice if it had some backing lol Just the NAM being the NAM.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Haha I guess this is what happens when u flip earlier.. It would be nice if it had some backing lol Just the NAM being the NAM.. The cold bias in this situation may not be unsubstantiated...especially with much guidance moving in its direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Come on Tim, you should be all over this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 A foot in the ROC from both NAM's? That would be impressive if it plays out. Fingers crossed for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Joe Bastard tweeted this earlier today. Interesting look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Rain will change to wet snow late Saturday afternoon and continue Saturday night. Light to moderate accumulations are possible, but there is a good deal of uncertainty with respect to the timing of the changeover to accumulating snow, and how much snow will accumulate. There is a small chance of heavy snow accumulations if the snow begins to stick earlier in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 As I’ve been saying for days, this storm had all the ingredients. Crush job for elevations. Roc likely gets warning amounts as does BUF burbs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2019 Author Share Posted December 13, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Rain with a track like that is just laughable, seriously though!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2019 Author Share Posted December 13, 2019 Perrysburg gets 8-12" of slop with this type of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 33 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Rain with a track like that is just laughable, seriously though! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk KBGM going with an inch or two (of snow) in the higher elevations sat night into Sunday a.m. So there's that. The added bone-us is they are thinking the mon night/Tues system will track further west than previously thought, yielding more non-snow precip than previously thought. Here in the far north of their CWA...we'll see about that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Obviously track dependent. The region 125-150 west of the LP is golden. BUF is way behind the curve on this one. Or, I’ll be made to look like an optimistic monkey- again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Looks interesting for sure. My guess is it's a timing issue when its starts to bomb out. Earlier bomb bigger snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Track And set up almost look similar to blizzard of 99. In rochester. That started with alot of rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Obviously track dependent. The region 125-150 west of the LP is golden. BUF is way behind the curve on this one. Or, I’ll be made to look like an optimistic monkey- again. I'm thinking my area around SYR is going to do better than currently being advertised by KBGM. But they've got a couple more model runs and actual storm obs all day tomorrow to make adjustments. Probably "Travelers Advisory" snowfall here...with my area ending up with 2-4" after the changeover, which I think won't be a drawn out / delayed affair as the slp will be rapidly deepening, as others have noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 2 hours ago, vortmax said: Come on Tim, you should be all over this. I am on it. I saw this on gfs for like 8 days and thought was odd no snow on west side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 If it does deepen like modeled looking at thundersnow possible. Had that in 99 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2019 Author Share Posted December 13, 2019 Top analog for tomorrow, all of them are pretty elevation dependent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 3km nam has wind gust 50 to 55 tomorrow night. Rochester area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now