wolfie09 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Icon was a little colder.. Exact track matters a lot as well.. Some have it more towards CNY while others Eastern part of the state.. NWS mentioned a deformation axis yesterday..Who knows where that sets up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Look at the wind direction, out of the NW and still rain .Track 100 miles to the east. Give me a break lol Must be no cold air in Canada.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 12 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Icon was a little colder.. Exact track matters a lot as well.. Some have it more towards CNY while others Eastern part of the state.. NWS mentioned a deformation axis yesterday..Who knows where that sets up.. Icon has consistently been the coldest model. Perhaps we get lucky and blind Germans can find schnitzel? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 11 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Look at the wind direction, out of the NW and still rain .Track 100 miles to the east. Give me a break lol Must be no cold air in Canada.. However that's not true. There is plenty of cold air I'm just really wondering why it's not being tapped. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Marginal either way but big difference between upper 30's and lower 30's.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Such a spring look. Elevation dependent wet accumulation versus some white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Comes through here much weaker and as all snow...in fact I figure the GFS will come around on Monday night-Tuesday's little storm and a lot if what's being forecast looks to be white up until Christmas. Quite the change from about 1 week ago when it was cutter after cutter after cutter.Yeah, but it's still gonna fall in liquid form and not frozen. There is no cold air on this side of the pole thanks to our wonderful indices. We had a -NAO for the whole Summer practically and now it heads back to positive, lol until further notice, lol!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Why’s the nws discussion still calling for .75” of rain across wny?Cause its gonna rain, lol, and whoever is praying that somehow the cold air, we so desperately need, will win out over the warmth that's being forecasted because that's not gonna happen cause there is no mechanism to tap it, simple as that! That's not gonna change either in 2 days so.....Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 If this system retrogrades like that we'll probably see a Westerly flow develop depending on the other parameters.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Eventually the cold will win out, even the NWS says that.. Depends on when and how much precip is left .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 11 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Cause its gonna rain, lol, and whoever is praying that somehow the cold air, we so desperately need, will win out over the warmth that's being forecasted because that's not gonna happen cause there is no mechanism to tap it, simple as that! That's not gonna change either in 2 days so..... Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Gotcha. I asked because it seems every map being posted here is showing rain to snow, .75” is quite a bit of rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Can only hope for a surprise with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Nam products look decent.. This is about 6 hours of precip.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 4 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Cause its gonna rain, lol, and whoever is praying that somehow the cold air, we so desperately need, will win out over the warmth that's being forecasted because that's not gonna happen cause there is no mechanism to tap it, simple as that! That's not gonna change either in 2 days so..... Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Well I wouldnt quite go that far. The 540dm line is trudging through WNY on the tail end of this so marginally cold enough air isnt that far away. Add some dynamic cooling from heavy precip, diurnal cooling, and elevation, and I would be surprised to see someone get 3-5 out of it. Definitely not ideal by any stretch but we miss out on a sloppy wet snow event by a couple degrees. Of course the cold biased NAM is showing the most optimistic of scenarios. Areas in SW NY are obviously in the best spot. CNY is a washout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 4 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Cause its gonna rain, lol, and whoever is praying that somehow the cold air, we so desperately need, will win out over the warmth that's being forecasted because that's not gonna happen cause there is no mechanism to tap it, simple as that! That's not gonna change either in 2 days so..... Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk But I do agree, this storm isnt magically changing into a snow storm in two days. But I think there could be some surprises further west with elevation involved 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2019 Author Share Posted December 13, 2019 Some decent analogs for Sat Night event. Kind of hoping for a dud as I am in a wedding for my buddy Sat. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F060&rundt=2019121212&map=thbCOOP72 Way out there but some decent analogs for good LES on W/WSW flow mid next week. Actually some really strong consensus for so early, you don't usually see this in the analogs this far out. Looks like Weds-Thurs timeframe. I'll be back 5 PM Thurs so expect a big event on Weds. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F132&rundt=2019121212&map=thbCOOP72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2019 Author Share Posted December 13, 2019 GFS has a snowstorm and a LES event from Tues-Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Models took a step in the right direction. NAM most aggressive in bring decent scums. A track like this WILL bring surprises. Dynamic cooling potential in play. And I’m usually the pessimist. Like this one. BUF-4, Roc-7, Fulton 2, Bristol Mountain 13, Chautaqua Ridge 12. call me nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 This didn’t add up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Euro came north for Tuesday, gfs went south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 The snowfall signature just keeps getting dragged further south into WNY. Gonna be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Someone’s getting a foot. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 4 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Euro came north for Tuesday, gfs went south.. Yes they have come to a better consensus on a track. It appears it will be a track through Pennsylvania which may have the southern tier mix while the low goes by. All in all looking like a 3 to 5 for all...and the signal for LES looks good like BW pointed out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Cold air advection will start to change the rain to snow as early as Saturday afternoon, especially at higher elevations of the western Southern Tier, as the surface low tracks north into southern Quebec by Saturday evening. The low will continue to push northward while deepening, pulling down much colder air behind it. This will eventually change all the precipitation over to snow by Sunday. The cold advection will lead to a period of lake enhanced snows east of the lakes, before the synoptic moisture gets cut off by approaching surface high pressure from the Ohio valley Sunday night. The highest snow accumulations are expected across the higher terrain east of the lakes where the change over to snow occurs the quickest and lake enhancement occurs. In these areas, could be looking at amounts as high as 4-6 inches, perhaps as much as 3-4 inches across the Bristol Hills. Temperatures will remain marginal at lower elevations with accumulations likely limited to an inch or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Rgem really likes the enhancement east of Ontario.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 I've begun to notice a trend that I think we're all going to like. The indices have not looked good recently and we've managed to stay average to slightly below average. The mid and long range has wanted to warm us up it seems 7 to 10 days out for about the last 2 week's. That signal is gone again. It now appears December will finish colder than normal with several opportunities for snow via synoptic and mesoscale. The Euro mid range was showing a PV split towards the Christmas time frame which would only enhance our chances going forward. Bottom line is when the indices do begin to go in the direction we like and we get an inevitable beat down of the PV I think January and February could be special. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: Someone’s getting a foot. Tell that to the NWS lol They will clearly pick the warmest model and run with it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Gfs for example never switches us over..lol But yet NaM has near a foot haha Which is unrealistic too.. Now do we really think that heavy precip will be rain lol Not with it cold enough aloft..Gfs will be wrong with surface temps... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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