Upstate/Eastern New York

[Thinksnow18]

20 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Euro over the next 6 days..

Looks good for the higher elevations of the tug for Saturday night-sunday time frame, plus whatever it has for today..

Early next week system is a miss just to the SE which majority of the models show at the moment..

Yes unfortunately the models are not in our favor over the next 2 week's.

[WNash]

51 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I would count last year as high magnitude. They get quite a few events but it's tough to get a major storm there. A consistent SSW wind setup is extremely difficult for LES. 

This was the storm. It was quite a bit worse than I thought in North Buffalo/Northtowns.

 

There was a huge cutoff NW of the airport. It really missed the area hit hardest in November 2000 and October 2006.

 

 …ERIE COUNTY…

     Colden 2.4 ENE           23.5
     Boston 2.5 NE            22.3
       Colden 1 W             21.6
   North Boston 4 ESE         21.3
    Buffalo Airport           20.0
   Cheektowaga 2.7 NE         20.0
     Boston 1.5 NE            18.8
  East Aurora 2.7 SSE         18.6
      Eden 1.4 SSE            16.7
          Wales               16.6
    West Seneca 0.4 E         15.5
  East Aurora 0.1 ENE         15.1
   West Seneca 2.3 NW         15.0
   Williamsville 2.7 E        15.0
Clarence Center 0.2 ESE       14.5
      Elma 2.7 WSW            14.2
  West Seneca 1.6 WNW         13.7
    Springville 5 NE          13.7
      Buffalo 3 SE            13.5
  East Aurora 1.0 ESE         13.5
    Hamburg 0.4 WSW           13.2
   Elma Center 0.7 SE         12.8
     Marilla 3 SSW            12.2
 Clarence Center 0.9 N        10.5
    Glenwood 1.5 SE           10.0
      Akron 0.9 NE             9.6
   Cheektowaga 2.4 NW          8.0
    Kenmore 0.3 ESE            7.5
  East Aurora 3.4 NNE          7.5
    Blasdell 1.5 SSW           5.6
     Kenmore 0.8 NW            3.3
    Tonawanda 3.1 NE           3.0
    Amherst 5.4 NNE            1.9
   Tonawanda 1.5 NNE           1.0

[DeltaT13]

2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Where'd you grow up in NT?

Spent the first 18 years of my life on Doebler Drive.  It was a very nice town to grow up in, aside from the lack of lake effect snow, lol.

[Buckeyes_Suck]

Driving East through silver creek. About 150’ visibility. 

[WNash]

50 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Amen, I grew up in North Tonawanda.  It was brutal always being just a handful of miles away from pure insanity.  The Christmas week storm from 2001 was particularly rough to watch from the side lines (and we even got 2 feet or so, just nowhere near what Buffalo got).  Fortunately, for most people thats a huge selling point to living in the North Towns, most people hate snow.  

From Black Rock up through North Tonawanda -- really, the east bank of the Niagara River -- is truly a lost cause as far as snowfall goes. There's just not a heading that can give that stretch of the metro area good lake effect.

[Thinksnow18]

3 minutes ago, WNash said:

This was the storm. It was quite a bit worse than I thought in North Buffalo/Northtowns.

 

There was a huge cutoff NW of the airport. It really missed the area hit hardest in November 2000 and October 2006.

 

 …ERIE COUNTY…

     Colden 2.4 ENE           23.5
     Boston 2.5 NE            22.3
       Colden 1 W             21.6
   North Boston 4 ESE         21.3
    Buffalo Airport           20.0
   Cheektowaga 2.7 NE         20.0
     Boston 1.5 NE            18.8
  East Aurora 2.7 SSE         18.6
      Eden 1.4 SSE            16.7
          Wales               16.6
    West Seneca 0.4 E         15.5
  East Aurora 0.1 ENE         15.1
   West Seneca 2.3 NW         15.0
   Williamsville 2.7 E        15.0
Clarence Center 0.2 ESE       14.5
      Elma 2.7 WSW            14.2
  West Seneca 1.6 WNW         13.7
    Springville 5 NE          13.7
      Buffalo 3 SE            13.5
  East Aurora 1.0 ESE         13.5
    Hamburg 0.4 WSW           13.2
   Elma Center 0.7 SE         12.8
     Marilla 3 SSW            12.2
 Clarence Center 0.9 N        10.5
    Glenwood 1.5 SE           10.0
      Akron 0.9 NE             9.6
   Cheektowaga 2.4 NW          8.0
    Kenmore 0.3 ESE            7.5
  East Aurora 3.4 NNE          7.5
    Blasdell 1.5 SSW           5.6
     Kenmore 0.8 NW            3.3
    Tonawanda 3.1 NE           3.0
    Amherst 5.4 NNE            1.9
   Tonawanda 1.5 NNE           1.0

I will fight that Williamsville number all day long...if you look at the brown spot right by the and just north of the 90 is east Williamsville...and that is 18 to 24 inches.

[Thinksnow18]

6 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Spent the first 18 years of my life on Doebler Drive.  It was a very nice town to grow up in, aside from the lack of lake effect snow, lol.

grew up on Wurlitzer drive. Graduated in 93

[Snowstorms]

15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Near whiteout conditions now

I was gonna go near Niagara today for a client meeting. But then I decided to reschedule seeing that haha! 

[WNash]

6 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I will fight that Williamsville number all day long...if you look at the brown spot right by the and just north of the 90 is east Williamsville...and that is 18 to 24 inches.

Yeah, there's something wrong with that measurement. I drove out to Clarence on Main Street the day after that storm, and that storm put two feet down for a good stretch of that drive. I'm also surprised by the Clarence Center number, but I'm sure there was a huge cutoff to the north just as there was to the northwest.

I made notes in my Buffalo Blizzard book, but I can't find it right now. In any case, if I remember correctly, the big LES events that hit North Buffalo and the northtowns as far west as Kenmore and Sweet Home were early season events, for example early December 1995, late November 2000, and October 2006. I'm not sure of the mechanism, but I recall from Don Paul that early season strong LES often can have significant cyclonic curvature. I'm assuming that plays into the drought -- not enough strong early season events on the 240-245 flow.

[DeltaT13]

4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

grew up on Wurlitzer drive. Graduated in 93

Damn, as you obviously know that street ends (or starts) at doebler drive.  Pretty crazy, my brother graduated in 94 so you may have known him.  

[Thinksnow18]

3 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Damn, as you obviously know that street ends (or starts) at doebler drive.  Pretty crazy, my brother graduated in 94 so you may have known him.  

Lmao more than likely! 

[BuffaloWeather]

6 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

I was gonna go near Niagara today for a client meeting. But then I decided to reschedule seeing that haha! 

Slowing down here now just light snow

[rochesterdave]

43 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Euro over the next 6 days..

Looks good for the higher elevations of the tug for Saturday night-sunday time frame, plus whatever it has for today..

Early next week system is a miss just to the SE which majority of the models show at the moment..

It’s gonna be a big one. Love to see it trend a couple clicks cooler (obviously). 

[BuffaloWeather]

8 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Damn, as you obviously know that street ends (or starts) at doebler drive.  Pretty crazy, my brother graduated in 94 so you may have known him.  

A good friend of mine lives right around the corner from you. Drove down that road a bunch of times. 

[Snowstorms]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Slowing down here now just light snow

I was near Amherst and Williamsville a few days ago. I was surprised there wasn't any snow on the ground. Is this the first major LES for Buffalo? 

[wolfie09]

Flow should be out of the west the majority of this evening but the band looks a little on the weakish side. 

[BuffaloWeather]

4 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

I was near Amherst and Williamsville a few days ago. I was surprised there wasn't any snow on the ground. Is this the first major LES for Buffalo? 

We've had one other event, but was mainly a Airport/Lancaster/Clarence hit. 

[rochesterdave]

I know everyone is focused on the LE right now but GEFS holding a good look for the possible weekend thing. 

[wolfie09]

Not the prettiest Dave, just to warm..

 

[tim123]

Snowing hard in roc..

[wolfie09]

The model consensus is for low pressure to track from central PA to
northern Vermont Saturday to Saturday night. As the low passes to
the east and northeast, cold air advection will move into western
and north central NY. This system is moisture laden so as colder air
moves into the region, snow showers are likely from west to east
through Saturday night. Minor lake enhancement expected through
Saturday night as lake induced instability is lacking with 850mb
temperatures only falling to around -6C by Sunday morning. An inch
or two of snowfall accumulation is possible mainly at higher
elevations east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario

[Chinook]

Composite radar from 1804z (1:04 PM) of the squall hitting the Buffalo shoreline

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Looks like that’s a wrap folks! Just shy of 2” here from the 2nd round. 5.9” storm total.


.

[CNY-LES FREAK]

That's gotta be one of the widest bands I've ever seen that's producing heavy snows throughout the band, just incredible! Reminds me of those Lake Ontario bands that no longer form for some strange reason. Maybe its Climate Change, RLMAO!

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[CNY-LES FREAK]

I think he misses his days of lake effect tracking. He’s been posting updates all morning.




.

That's my man right there and whoever said the HRRR is a horrible model for LE , it pegged that Erie band and as well as the Ontario one!

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[wolfie09]

Rgem has the split band look..

Brings one through within the hour and then the follow up about an hour later..

[wolfie09]

Flakes starting to fly now. 

[wolfie09]

[BuffaloWeather]

3.7" for round 1 and 3.5" for round 2.

7.2" total with snow depth at 6"

[CNY-LES FREAK]

Not one flake and I doubt we see one, lol! I absolutely despise BN Novembers and next yr I hope its balmy right through Thanksgiving, then bam, an Arctic Plunge accompanied by Squalls then true LE kicks and lasts for 3-4 days straight. Their happening less and less as each yr passes, wtf!

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