Upstate/Eastern New York

[wolfie09]

10 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

yeah except that S/W will bring the lake snows into the metro for a time...on the flip side how do we get rain from a low pressure over the east coast??? That would be a snowstorm not rain storm.

Normally it would, especially wny but I think it has something to do with that lakes low.. 

Winds straight out of the south. 

[BuffaloWeather]

1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

Normally it would, especially wny but it has something to do with that lakes low.. 

Winds straight out of the south. 

The winds change direction due to shortwave north of lake superior. You can see the dropping heights there. High res will better pinpoint this. 

[BuffaloWeather]

As we get closer there are a few things to worry about that weren't there before. Dry air immediately following the passage of the low and shear due to quickly changing wind directions if that shortwave shown in GGEM happens the way it shows. Very early but no longer thinking blockbuster event, but definitely LES Warnings for everyone including northern Erie. 

[schinz]

17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

As we get closer there are a few things to worry about that weren't there before. Dry air immediately following the passage of the low and shear due to quickly changing wind directions if that shortwave shown in GGEM happens the way it shows. Very early but no longer thinking blockbuster event, but definitely LES Warnings for everyone including northern Erie. 

On a side note, thanks so much for your analysis all the time.  I very rarely post, but appreciate you and other posters very much.  I am going to be at Peek N Peak in Chautaqua County from this evening till Wednesday about noon and am hoping I get stuck there for a day or two more!!!  I am looking forward to tracking this the next few days!

[Thinksnow18]

21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

As we get closer there are a few things to worry about that weren't there before. Dry air immediately following the passage of the low and shear due to quickly changing wind directions if that shortwave shown in GGEM happens the way it shows. Very early but no longer thinking blockbuster event, but definitely LES Warnings for everyone including northern Erie. 

For now im alright with that...we still have several weeks of opportunities after that before the lake begins to freeze.

[wolfie09]

Heaviest snow of the event so far as the back edge approaches. 

[CNY_WX]

About an inch here so far but it’s a very wet almost springlike snow.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the ratio is 10:1 or less.  Still snowing, 33 degrees.

[BuffaloWeather]

Looks like WSW winds on the Euro

[Revracer800]

Big ole wet parachutes falling here in Hannibal, coming down pretty damn good. Couple inches so far. 

[BuffaloWeather]

That's some really cold air too, extreme instability. Dry air moves in by Thurs which should cancel the LES. 

[DeltaT13]

Well my wind storm has up and vanished like a fart in the wind.  Now I set my eyes to possibly chasing lake effect South of Buffalo next week.  I've got some PTO I need to use before the end of the year.....hmmmmm

[BuffaloWeather]

Michigan mentions the possible issues with the LES event well.

A cold front will blast through the area Monday night changing
the precipitation over from rain to snow rather quickly. The lake
effect snow machine will commence Monday night and continue
probably right into Thursday. The main time frame of concern for
lake effect snow will be Tuesday, Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Delta T`s in this time frame will be high to extreme in the 20C to
30C degree range. Moisture depth is decent, but it is a bit
lacking over time. Looking at the 850mb to 700mb layer which is
where lake effect events separate themselves from ok to
significant, the moisture is rather weak, less than 70 percent.
That said, lake effect will occur and we will turn the lakeshore
white again where the snow has melted. Of bigger concern will be
travel issues that develop as highs on Wednesday will hold in the
teens. When we get temperatures this cold and snow is occurring
(even if its the fine powdery light snow like this event will be)
we develop travel issues as salt is much less effective. People
will need to be aware that travel concerns will develop from
Tuesday into Wednesday across Western Lower Michigan.

[wolfie09]

Snow in process of ending..

3.7" on the day, snow depth in backyard just shy of 11"..

[Thinksnow18]

15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Michigan mentions the possible issues with the LES event well.

A cold front will blast through the area Monday night changing
the precipitation over from rain to snow rather quickly. The lake
effect snow machine will commence Monday night and continue
probably right into Thursday. The main time frame of concern for
lake effect snow will be Tuesday, Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Delta T`s in this time frame will be high to extreme in the 20C to
30C degree range. Moisture depth is decent, but it is a bit
lacking over time. Looking at the 850mb to 700mb layer which is
where lake effect events separate themselves from ok to
significant, the moisture is rather weak, less than 70 percent.
That said, lake effect will occur and we will turn the lakeshore
white again where the snow has melted. Of bigger concern will be
travel issues that develop as highs on Wednesday will hold in the
teens. When we get temperatures this cold and snow is occurring
(even if its the fine powdery light snow like this event will be)
we develop travel issues as salt is much less effective. People
will need to be aware that travel concerns will develop from
Tuesday into Wednesday across Western Lower Michigan

Remember young Jedi, moisture can be different in relatively close areas, there will also, no doubt, be multiple shortwave rounding down like pinwheel around the parent low. We will be ok I think.

[CNY-LES FREAK]

A really awesome picturesque day, just after a new 3" has fallen! I believe it started before sunrise but it doesn't make a difference because this time of yr, diurnal influences are minimal anyhoo!


Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[96blizz]

Snow just ended and a super eerie “fog” is rolling through with wind. Assuming it’s the front but man the weather can be wild up here!!!

[CNY_WX]

10 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

A really awesome picturesque day, just after a new 3" has fallen! I believe it started before sunrise but it doesn't make a difference because this time of yr, diurnal influences are minimal anyhoo!


Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

The snow started at 7 AM here and ended about 2:30 so 7.5 hours of snowfall.  I got about 2 inches of wet snow here.

[Buffalo Bumble]

1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Snow in process of ending..

3.7" on the day, snow depth in backyard just shy of 11"..

Impressive.  Different world out here in WNY.  We warmed above freezing through last night and this morning.  Less than an inch OTG now IMBY.  

[Buffalo Bumble]

1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

Well my wind storm has up and vanished like a fart in the wind.  Now I set my eyes to possibly chasing lake effect South of Buffalo next week.  I've got some PTO I need to use before the end of the year.....hmmmmm

Yeah, noticed that too.  Maybe another chance way out there a day 7/8, per Euro, and to a lesser extent GFS.  

[BuffaloWeather]

I believe NWS updated this:

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE BY
MID WEEK...

An Arctic cold front will cross the region for Tuesday. As such,
cold air will rapidly pour into the area causing the ongoing rain
showers from Tuesday morning to abruptly transition over to snow
showers as we head into Tuesday afternoon.

Winds shifting to westerly at 850 mb through the night on Tuesday
into Wednesday will advect cold air into the region, causing the 850
mb temperature to drop to around minus 20C. In addition, multiple
parameters are stacking up, from good over-lake instability,
available moisture, and positioning of the upper and lower level
features suggesting for a strong lake response off both Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario beginning Tuesday night continuing into most of the
day on Wednesday. As per usual, there is some uncertainty regarding
the exact positioning of the lake effect bands, however the lower
resolution models are suggesting winds to be generally
westerly/southwesterly for most of this time period before veering
northwest near the end of the event.

High pressure will pass through the region for Thursday into Friday,
lowering the chances for precipitation. Near the end of this period
winds will shift southwesterly advecting warm area into the region.

[Thinksnow18]

14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I believe NWS updated this:

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE BY
MID WEEK...

An Arctic cold front will cross the region for Tuesday. As such,
cold air will rapidly pour into the area causing the ongoing rain
showers from Tuesday morning to abruptly transition over to snow
showers as we head into Tuesday afternoon.

Winds shifting to westerly at 850 mb through the night on Tuesday
into Wednesday will advect cold air into the region, causing the 850
mb temperature to drop to around minus 20C. In addition, multiple
parameters are stacking up, from good over-lake instability,
available moisture, and positioning of the upper and lower level
features suggesting for a strong lake response off both Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario beginning Tuesday night continuing into most of the
day on Wednesday. As per usual, there is some uncertainty regarding
the exact positioning of the lake effect bands, however the lower
resolution models are suggesting winds to be generally
westerly/southwesterly for most of this time period before veering
northwest near the end of the event.

High pressure will pass through the region for Thursday into Friday,
lowering the chances for precipitation. Near the end of this period
winds will shift southwesterly advecting warm area into the region.

Love the West/Southwesterly wording...

[rochesterdave]

2 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

Well my wind storm has up and vanished like a fart in the wind.  Now I set my eyes to possibly chasing lake effect South of Buffalo next week.  I've got some PTO I need to use before the end of the year.....hmmmmm

Do you have a favorite place to go? Or a favorite route to travel? It seems like such a waste to be only an hour or so away and not chase, but I always feel weird just driving around....

I drove to Redfield once and it literally took all day (There and back). It’s not very close. 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Love the West/Southwesterly wording...

Nothing like building the hype this early. It’ll just make our disappointment hurt that much more when us metro guys are watching that band roll in off the lake just to our south.

Speaking of hype the local mets are already starting to sound the alarm to get everyone into panic mode.


.

[BuffaloWeather]

8 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

 

Nothing like building the hype this early. It’ll just make our disappointment hurt that much more when us metro guys are watching that band roll in off the lake just to our south.

Speaking of hype the local mets are already starting to sound the alarm to get everyone into panic mode.


.

 

Yeah I wouldn't do that quite yet. Still not liking a few things on the models. By Sunday Evening we should have a pretty good idea. 

[DeltaT13]

1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

Do you have a favorite place to go? Or a favorite route to travel? It seems like such a waste to be only an hour or so away and not chase, but I always feel weird just driving around....

I drove to Redfield once and it literally took all day (There and back). It’s not very close. 

I don't have a specific place to go.  I usually try to get in position just outside the bands to get a feel for the roads and local area.  I then proceed to punch through the band while maintaining some semblance of an escape plan if shit gets too dicey.  I usually try to hit the band perpendicular to its long axis with the hope of making it out the other side.  Seeing thundersnow, taking measurements, pushing out peoples cars along the way are the bonus agendas.  But yeah, in the end It really just ends up driving around.  Sometimes I'll pick some locations ahead of time to stop by such as small town with a restaurant to grab some food or an area on the lake front that is expected to be in the heart of the mayhem.   

I didnt have a great vehicle during the November 2014 storm and I knew it was out of my league, still sad I missed that one.  

[BuffaloWeather]

My house is always open for chasers. It's too big for me and my wife. 2 extra bedrooms, just need to get beds in them.

[BuffaloWeather]

I've driven in some crazy strong bands, but the worst conditions I've ever driven in were coming back from Holiday Valley one night at like 11 pm a few years back. The roads from Ellicottville to Springville are not lit at all and they go through the mountains. We hit a band that had to be 3-4" per hour with 20-30 MPH winds. I pulled over and waited for the band to pass. Events like 2014 you don't want to even bother with. You want to get somewhere before the band starts and then chase from that location. 

[Vicarious]

19 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I've driven in some crazy strong bands, but the worst conditions I've ever driven in were coming back from Holiday Valley one night at like 11 pm a few years back. The roads from Ellicottville to Springville are not lit at all and they go through the mountains. We hit a band that had to be 3-4" per hour with 20-30 MPH winds. I pulled over and waited for the band to pass. Events like 2014 you don't want to even bother with. You want to get somewhere before the band starts and then chase from that location. 

I was out snow plowing in 2014 and when I was plowing a parking lot around Clinton and Rossler I was afraid of hitting the building on the one side because I could barely see my plow let alone anything in front of it.

[DeltaT13]

23 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I've driven in some crazy strong bands, but the worst conditions I've ever driven in were coming back from Holiday Valley one night at like 11 pm a few years back. The roads from Ellicottville to Springville are not lit at all and they go through the mountains. We hit a band that had to be 3-4" per hour with 20-30 MPH winds. I pulled over and waited for the band to pass. Events like 2014 you don't want to even bother with. You want to get somewhere before the band starts and then chase from that location. 

I've been on that same stretch of road coming back from Holiday Valley just crawling along sweating bullets in a complete whiteout.  Literally white knuckled for many miles.  It is not pleasant. I've also been on 219 and literally got vertigo because I couldnt tell if I was moving or the snow was moving.  All I could do was stare out the front right of my truck looking for road reflectors while desperately trying to maintain an equal distance from each one.  Just counting the minutes until I could get out.  Chasing can go from thrilling to terrifying mighty fast when you are in intense lake bands.  It's a very fine line.  

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Do you have a favorite place to go? Or a favorite route to travel? It seems like such a waste to be only an hour or so away and not chase, but I always feel weird just driving around....
I drove to Redfield once and it literally took all day (There and back). It’s not very close. 

If your looking for an easy and safer route try taking 20. Get off the 90 at Transit Road in Depew and just keep heading due south. If you haven’t hit the band in West Seneca the road bends and turns into Southwestern Blvd at the Orchard Park town line. You can take that all the way to the state line if your heart desires. Nice thing about 20 is the state usually keeps it in really good shape for driving and if things get that intense there are tons of places you can pull off and camp out without being in the middle of no where. Driving those back roads through an intense band are terrifying in my opinion.


.