wolfie09 Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 Surprised no headlines.. P&C showing 4"-7" today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 I guess it will come in 2 different parts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE BY MID WEEK... An arctic front will pass quickly through the area Tuesday allowing cold air to surge into the region. Ongoing rain showers Tuesday morning will transition over to snow showers through the afternoon as the cold air deepens. Arctic air will continue to pour into the region Tuesday night through Wednesday night with 850 mb temperatures dropping to near minus 20C. This will allow for a strong lake response off both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario during this time period. As is the usually the case this far in advance, there remains some uncertainty with respect to exact location of the lake snows, but current lower resolution models suggesting a general west or west-southwest flow will dominate for much of the time period before veering northwest near the end of the event. It continues to look like all parameters are in place from extreme over-lake instability, available moisture and position of upper level features for significant lake snows downwind of both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario during the Tuesday night through at least the Wednesday night time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 31 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE BY MID WEEK... An arctic front will pass quickly through the area Tuesday allowing cold air to surge into the region. Ongoing rain showers Tuesday morning will transition over to snow showers through the afternoon as the cold air deepens. Arctic air will continue to pour into the region Tuesday night through Wednesday night with 850 mb temperatures dropping to near minus 20C. This will allow for a strong lake response off both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario during this time period. As is the usually the case this far in advance, there remains some uncertainty with respect to exact location of the lake snows, but current lower resolution models suggesting a general west or west-southwest flow will dominate for much of the time period before veering northwest near the end of the event. It continues to look like all parameters are in place from extreme over-lake instability, available moisture and position of upper level features for significant lake snows downwind of both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario during the Tuesday night through at least the Wednesday night time frame If it's a west-southwest flow I would be ecstatic for that. S/W will get the band to the metro much easier than a general westerly flow. Might not get the highest amounts but I'll be in the game as they say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 I'm sure we'll be hearing some bitching and moaning over the next week lol As the models look pretty blah for the next 10 says or so.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 Snowing pretty good out with large flakes, nearing my first inch.. Snow is not wet enough for snowballs but not powder like LES, kinda in between lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 Snowing good in roc as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2019 Author Share Posted December 6, 2019 .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE BY MID WEEK... Arctic air will continue to pour into the region Tuesday night through Wednesday night with 850 mb temperatures dropping to near minus 20C. This will allow for a strong lake response off both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario during this time period. As is the usually the case this far in advance, there remains some uncertainty with respect to exact location of the lake snows, but current lower resolution models suggesting a general west or west-southwest flow will dominate for much of the time period before veering northwest near the end of the event. It continues to look like all parameters are in place from extreme over-lake instability, available moisture and position of upper level features for significant lake snows downwind of both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario during the Tuesday night through at least the Wednesday night time frame. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 38 in Buffalo. Mix line on the move. Snowing in Pittsford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2019 Author Share Posted December 6, 2019 # 3 analog is Nov 2014. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 Syracuse and or E Wayne county could get whacked tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 39 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: # 3 analog is Nov 2014. What’s number 1 and 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2019 Author Share Posted December 6, 2019 12 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: What’s number 1 and 2? Dec 2001 and Dec 1995. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2019 Author Share Posted December 6, 2019 Plain rain here. The little bit of snow we had is melting away. Really debating on going to the game Sunday. I know we are most likely going to lose but conditions look fantastic. Highs in the mid 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: 38 in Buffalo. Mix line on the move. Snowing in Pittsford. Hoping we can squeak out all snow for this one. Hovering at 31.5. Wind shift should be close. What site has the radar view of sleet/snow/rain boundaries? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Dec 2001 and Dec 1995. I'll selfishly take the #1 analog for 2000 Alex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2019 Author Share Posted December 6, 2019 8 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I'll selfishly take the #1 analog for 2000 Alex I was just kidding lol. Quite a few good events in there, most are deep southtowns jackpots. Boston/Colden/Springville. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&rundt=2019120600&map=thbCOOP72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2019 Author Share Posted December 6, 2019 13 minutes ago, vortmax said: Hoping we can squeak out all snow for this one. Hovering at 31.5. Wind shift should be close. What site has the radar view of sleet/snow/rain boundaries? https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=BUF-N0C-1-12# 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 So what exactly is an analogue and how is it generated? I’ve always assumed it’s a comparison of old weather events matched up (in order of closeness) to expected weather events. But it’s got to be complicated. How does it know that you’re looking for data points: Buffalo, 5 days from now, snowstorm? im making it too complicated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 This is from App Radar Scope (pro subscription- cheap) using the correlation coefficient lense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 Thanks for the CC radar view...forgot all about that from my met days. Looks like the winds along the S shore in Niagara/Orleans are backing to N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 Models seem to be missing that stuff up north.. I have just under 2" as of 10am.. This was the 12z hrrr for the entirety.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2019 Author Share Posted December 6, 2019 I like your shed wolf. Where did you get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 Came with the house..lol Rumor has it that is was built by the Amish, which we have a huge community of.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2019 Author Share Posted December 6, 2019 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: So what exactly is an analogue and how is it generated? I’ve always assumed it’s a comparison of old weather events matched up (in order of closeness) to expected weather events. But it’s got to be complicated. How does it know that you’re looking for data points: Buffalo, 5 days from now, snowstorm? im making it too complicated? An analog is the best atmospheric representation of any point in past weather history that best matches what the current models output for that specific time period. There is science to it, it's not just old weather events compared to future weather events. So the number one analog would be the one that matches up to the atmospheric pattern to that specific time period. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 Gfs doesn't look too hot with LES potential, not enough separation between the cutter and a northern stream disturbance dropping down.. Followed by a driving rain storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs doesn't look too hot with LES potential, not enough separation between the cutter and a northern stream disturbance dropping down.. Followed by a driving rain storm lol yeah except that S/W will bring the lake snows into the metro for a time...on the flip side how do we get rain from a low pressure over the east coast??? That would be a snowstorm not rain storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2019 Author Share Posted December 6, 2019 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs doesn't look too hot with LES potential, not enough separation between the cutter and a northern stream disturbance dropping down.. Followed by a driving rain storm lol It still looks decent, but really want to get into high res timeframe to pinpoint details. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 Temps in IAG now dropping with the NW wind shift. BUF should start to drop now. Precip is starting to clear out as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2019 Author Share Posted December 6, 2019 This pattern will have multiple chances of LES and synoptic. It looks fantastic. It will still be up and down though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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