Upstate/Eastern New York

[CNY-LES FREAK]

Dry slot racing NEward, Yes!!

[wolfie09]

[Syrmax]

Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Dry slot racing NEward, Yes!!

I'd rather taint then Dryslot, personally.    At least its frozen precip.  Back in my southern CT days, you had to fight for any frozen precip you could get.  Back in the day.  Since then they seem to jackpot routinely.                                                                                        

[Revracer800]

Ice is really starting to add up here. Dumping frz rain. Hope it don't last much longer. 

[CNY_WX]

True pingers along with what looks like partially melted and refrozen snowflakes.  Temperature 26.

[Syrmax]

4 minutes ago, Revracer800 said:

Ice is really starting to add up here. Dumping frz rain. Hope it don't last much longer. 

that's amazing.  You're what, 15 miles WNW of me and we're just pinging, no ZR.

[Syrmax]

Intellicast weather radar not having it's best day with p-type.  I've often found it to be pretty good.

[Revracer800]

3 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

that's amazing.  You're what, 15 miles WNW of me and we're just pinging, no ZR.

Where you at Syrmax? 

[Syrmax]

5 minutes ago, Revracer800 said:

Where you at Syrmax? 

northern Clay, almost PHX

[Revracer800]

Just now, Syrmax said:

northern Clay, almost PHX

Ohhh ok. Crazy how much different weather can be just a few miles away. 

[96blizz]

Back building commencing. 

[wolfie09]

Looks like it may be retreating.

[CNY-LES FREAK]

I'm back over to mostly snow now, weird, but theres just that much instability overhead that its even confusing the atmosphere and what it should be doing, lol!

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[wolfie09]

Starting to lose the bright banding..

[CNY-LES FREAK]

Looks like it may be retreating.

Yep, itll probably continue to give way to more and more snow as the Coastal gets going and it is, but a tick or 2 further to the South.

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[CNY_WX]

I have snow mixing back in with the IP.

[CNY-LES FREAK]

Yeah, bbn it it's all about to come to an end as the back edge quickly approaches from the SW unless precip is in fact starting to back build so we'll see.

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[wolfie09]

NJ will probably see more snow than we do lol

Nam has double digits just away from the coast..

[DeltaT13]

Light rain and 32 (probably 32.5 as there is melting) over the roc. Found my tree in some intense sleet, it was a fun mission. Show is over here for a few hours until the secondary takes over.  Hoping for a few inches of snow tonight. 

[Syrmax]

Just took a 3pm measurement.  3.5" of SN/IP on whiteboard.  0.60" liquid melted.  That's a ratio of 0.58:1.  Looks like GFS wins!  LooooooL

[wolfie09]

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The mixed icy precipitation has largely come to an end across the
far western counties as of 20z (3 PM)...although fresh echoes on
upstream radars show that more showers will move in (and develop) as
we push towards this evening. Further east...the mixed precipitation
is falling as moderately heavy snow east of Lake Ontario.
Accumulations of 3 to 5 inches will be possible by nightfall from
Oswego county to the Thousand Islands region. This steadier pcpn is
being fed by a southerly 40kt low level jet that has moved to the
eastern portion of the state.

[wolfie09]

Thermal profiles this evening will still support some rain or
freezing rain for the far western counties...while snow and possibly
some sleet or freezing rain will be found east of Lake Ontario. As
we progress through the night...weak cold advection will be JUST
enough to allow any mixed pcpn to grudgingly change to wet snow.
While most areas are not expected to pick up more an 1 to 3 inches
of snow...deeper moisture being fed back into the Finger Lakes
region will be acted upon by a robust shortwave that is currently
racing across Kentucky. As this mid level feature is circulated
northward across the Finger Lakes later tonight...moderate to heavy
snow will develop. Snow accumulations tonight of 4 to 6 inches can
be expected from Ontario county to southern Lewis county where a
winter storm warning remains in place.

On Monday...a large (but not overly strong) area of low pressure off
the coast of New Jersey will work its way up the coast...eventually
moving off Long Island by late afternoon. This will keep a deep
fetch of Atlantic moisture in place across New York state with a
cyclonic flow and some localized orographic lift supporting more
snow. The steadiest of this will remain over the Finger Lakes and
the eastern Lake Ontario region where several more inches of
accumulation will be likely. The snow will then taper off from
northwest to southeast during the afternoon and evening. Temperatures
on Monday are not expected to make it above freezing

[vortmax]

Down to 996:

Pressure falls:

[rochesterdave]

I love the grudging nature of the BUF disco. 

[Syrmax]

1 minute ago, rochesterdave said:

I love the grudging nature of the BUF disco. 

They should just discuss the next meaningless SW flow LES event they are seeing out on the 384 hr GFS and call it a day.

[Revracer800]

Back to snow here. Crazy weather. 

[DeltaT13]

6 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Down to 996:

Pressure falls:

5mb pressure fall off the NJ coast is impressive. Hopefully it’s indicative of the surface low sitting and consolidating. 

[rochesterdave]

4 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

They should just discuss the next meaningless SW flow LES event they are seeing out on the 384 hr GFS and call it a day.

That’s all they ever really care about. 

[tim123]

Lmao. Exactly never get excited about anything that doesnt effect buffalo.

[rochesterdave]

Delta, thoughts on Monroe county? I saw earlier 2-4”. You still there or more optimistic? Point and Click gave a big jump to 6-10. I’m a bit hopeful we get into a back side band overnight. Staying at my folks in Pittsford to get as close as I can.