BuffaloWeather Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 So it looks like we will start off December with a decent snowstorm for the central and especially eastern areas of NYS. Looks like 1-3" across WNY, 3-6" for Rochester, 6-12" for Syracuse. Following this storm there is an interesting period on Weds where a lake enhanced setup may affect Buffalo and give them a few inches. On an initial SW flow, lake effect snow is expected to begin near Buffalo/Watertown Tuesday night. It likely will not be until early Wednesday that lake parameters maximize...with Lake Induced EQL rising to near 7-9K feet, and moisture increasing in a lowering snow dentritic growth zone that the bands of snow will become moderate. By this time, with the upper level shortwave crossing our region, expect the bands of snow to be now east of the Lakes, across the Southtowns/Boston Hills and the Tug Hill region. Here on Wednesday we will increase PoPs to likely for lake effect snow. Looking further out.... A very up and down pattern upcoming. Lots of warm ups and cool downs. No real sign of any arctic air in the forseeable future. We get some pacific help with a +PNA but we go positive for the NAO and AO with the PV on the other side of the globe. The models have been highly volatile though, so this doesn't mean much. I think weeks 2 we get a decent torch according to the CPC. Hopefully the pattern changes but it looks like we're heading into a warm MJO cycle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Nice write up. Thanks for what you do! Anyway, read the early am disco from BUF, you’d hardly know there was a storm. They’re either gonna look like geniuses or morons. I give them credit for sticking to their guns- can’t be easy, especially Wayne NE. Sunday night...the initial surface low will weaken in the vcnty of the Southern Tier...while the secondary low will become better organized off the Mid Atlantic coast. This will encourage weak cold advection over our region to change any remaining mixed pcpn to some light to occasionally moderate wet snow. Much of the forcing for the pcpn Sunday night will come from being in the proximity of the upper low and from local orographics...although areas east of the Genesee Valley could experience a little lift from there nose of an easterly LLJ. This will largely depend on how far off the coast the secondary storm takes shape. In any case...most areas should pick up an inch or two of snow Sunday night...with 2 to 4 inches possible form the Finger Lakes eastward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Roc 9 inches on euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Yeah down from 12z for most.. Interestingly enough the off hour runs seem a lot snowier.. It also seems like parts of the coast will get in on the action.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Same for roc bit less for syr I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Euro did warm up some with the initial slug.. But gives the south shore some nice bands from the coastal.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 KBGM has upped their game for this one. Totals bumped up. The 1/10 probablity is 21" at SYR. My final call ROC 7" BUF 2" SYR 9" BGM 13" ALB 17" Storm details: We Torch->We Slot->We Rice->We Fake. So it has always been, so shall it always be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 This band should make it up here by 12-1 pm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: This band should make it up here by 12-1 pm.. Just in time for football and a cold one with the fire on! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Atleast buffalo upped totals to 6 to 10 for roc area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 24 degrees and rain here just outside of buffalo. Nice glaze forming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 I am concerned someone gets alot of ice more than forecasted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 6z euro looks pretty similar to 0z.. 10"-12" for all of Oswego county, 12"-15" starts near Syracuse proper..15"-18' for the finger lakes.. The majority of guidance has the strongest banding rotating just south of Oswego county.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Storm Vista maps showing 6"-12" from kbuf-kroc but they do include sleet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 9 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: 24 degrees and rain here just outside of buffalo. Nice glaze forming. Uh oh. Radar looks wet, not snowy to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 It's this band here that the models are hammering the finger lakes with..As these bands rotate counter clockwise.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 This is gonna be some wet heavy stuff.. A rare event where kuchera shows less than 10-1.. Which is shown on the gfs/Nam.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Not by a significant amount but it's there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 My hope is once heavy precip moves in it flips to heavy snow. Rather than sleet frz rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 lol @ “Lot of Sleet”... 1/4” of ice here this morning... Yuck.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Rap with a good 5"-7' between 18z and 0z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 17 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: lol @ “Lot of Sleet”... 1/4” of ice here this morning... Yuck... . Yeah ice is accreting pretty rapidly out there. There’s a really solid glaze on everything and it’s coming down pretty good with the temp holding at 27 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 7 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Yeah ice is accreting pretty rapidly out there. There’s a really solid glaze on everything and it’s coming down pretty good with the temp holding at 27 degrees. Isn't .25"+ considered ice storm warning criteria? Or maybe .5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Not around here. .5 is I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 1 hour ago, Luke_Mages said: 24 degrees and rain here just outside of buffalo. Nice glaze forming. Yeah this poses a huge problem...just ran to the grocery store and I would've been far better off taking the hockey skates...everything and I mean everything is iced up. This could get bad for areas buffalo north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 So far things look to be on track. No snow here yet. Would be nice to get 4-6" with WAA Round 1. These usually seem to underperform but i don't think this will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Got an early start from Columbus this morning. Is the Thruway road surface usually warm enough to not have issues from freezing rain? A bit nervous about that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 I thought it was the other way around lol Wpc made that claim the other day.. WAA thumps tend to over perform unless u mix of course.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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