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December Banter 2019


George BM
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1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I really don’t like it when a new poster comes in here and starts throwing off on one of our own, one of our best. I’ve never received any warning posts but it may be coming soon.

@psuhoffman keep on keepin on dude.

Thanks. Honestly others seem to have been more offended by him than me. Anyone is free to question and challenge anything I say.  I’m a big boy.  I wish I could analyze a bad pattern hypothetically without it meaning I punted winter though. But I don’t take anything personally. I’m also used to dealing with teenagers everyday so....

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17 minutes ago, Mersky said:

 

 

I meant nothing personal to you, and I stated that many times. I apologize to you if you were offended.  I just don’t have a negative view as you do about the rest of the winter. I believe the handling of the MJO is what is causing the models to look like they do in the extended range. I believe they will correct weaker with it in the warm phases, thus the models will correct also. By no means am I calling for a arctic outbreak with record cold, record snowfall and no mild days. Far from it. I am just not as down on where the rest of the winter goes as you are. I didn’t mean to ruffle feathers here. I will refrain from saying more. 

You didn’t ruffle my feathers, relax. I do think you misinterpreted “hypothetical” and/or/if type analysis as forecast. I did say that if the pac ridge is correct we need NAO help. And I do tend to buy the pac ridge as likely.  But I’m still unsold on the NAO. For the record I predicted about avg snowfall this year but I never expected a putely pac driven pattern to work. Issue is I interpreted the analogs to indicate we would get some NAO help this year. But what’s happening now isn’t a good omen. When the AO and NAO go this positive it can be a persistent issue. Add in that we are in a long term +NAO cycle and I am not as optimistic as I was 2 weeks ago.  The pac isn’t all that different from what I expected. The issue is I’m seeing some early signs we might not get the high latitude help we need.  I’m not punting a damn thing yet though. And even if it becomes apparent we’re very unlikely to have a good winter I will still track in hopes of one fluke storm. Some of those dreg analog years had at least one decent storm. 

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Yesterday was pretty much a perfect day in the NFL. Ravens won without even playing some of their top guys, broke records along the way. Pats lost to Dolphins. Eagles/Cowboys drama was settled. Bengals beat the Stains. Pats lost. I won some money in DraftKings. The Dolphins somehow beat the Pats. The Seattle/SF game was a hell of a way to end the regular season. And the most important thing is the Patriots lost AT HOME to the Dolphins. I was literally laughing hysterically at the Twitter feed from the Pats handle when they posted the final score. It was both sweet and salty from all the tears of Pats fans. It's going to be great when Brady and Bill retire, and they fade into obscurity. 

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5 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

Stretches like this in winter is when people's true personalities show. I'm excited to see a few crack.

I'm gonna be sad when the NFL gives the Saints a makeup next week vs the Vikings for last years mess :(

Yup. Happens every year. Those are usually the people I have on ignore anyways, so I won't be missing much this time around.

I've come to accept that we could be pretty much SOL for the next 3-4 weeks and that we may well (again) find ourselves with a chilly and miserable early spring. If that happens, I'll be more disappointed for my little girls than anything because I want to see them have an absolute f'ing blast in the snow!

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Let's save it for next year.  I don't want some rogue 12" - 16" event that's gone in 48 hours.

Now think about it...can we really afford to be picky in our region? Especially if 

a) the only way we can score comes via rogue event, )sure happened like that in 2006...although I don't remember how long that one stayed around), and...

b) we only get the 12-16 inchers every 3-4 years anyway?

Gotta take it however we can get it, lol

 

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