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December Banter 2019


George BM
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1 hour ago, Wonderdog said:

That would be a nice storm for the MA. Take some people off the ledge.

Nah, the obs thread would be littered with people complaining they only got 5” when someone just NW of them got 8”....or there was a period of sleet for 2 hours that knocked down totals by 20%.  One thing is certain in the MA...you can count on the same dopes clogging the obs thread with complaints.  

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9 hours ago, cbmclean said:

I am trying to learn a lot in a short time period so forgive the pestering.  What shows you that it will be cold/dry vs cold?

Also, why do areas of high geopotential heights cause blocks, but areas of low geopotential heights do not?  What makes a pattern progressive vs blocky?

 

You are trying to learn. Don’t apologize that’s awesome!  It’s much preferred to those that know nothing, make no effort to learn anything, and fill up the threads with nonsense year after year. 

Ive been getting the same kind of questions both in the threads and in PMs lately so later today (probably this evening) I’m going to revive the old winter weather classroom thread we had with explanations of various pattern drivers and analogs to past storms from various patterns with explanations of what made them work.  I’ve been working on a project for a while looking at past mid atl snows and categorizing them by pattern type. I intent to finish today and post those results also. Something to do during the down time. 

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21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 I’ve been working on a project for a while looking at past mid atl snows and categorizing them by pattern type. I intent to finish today and post those results also. Something to do during the down time. 

I will save my dessert for later today when you post it.  I am looking forward to it. 

 How far back in time did you go psu ?  

 

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18 hours ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Yes, indeed.  I went out for a ride the other day in the later afternoon...gorgeous!  I know there are enough days around here in winter where one can ride a bike (I do road cycling) without an issue and in reasonable comfort.

Bob...you said you do mountain biking?  What type...like way off-road stuff with the heavy duty shocks on the front fork, or more on the dirt trails?  

Mix of road and single track trails. Single tracks are by far my favorite but they're also often messy and tiring so not an every day or too much cleaning/maintenance. MoCo is loaded with 100s of miles of single tracks. Schaefer Farms in germantowm is an entire area dedicated to mtb trails. Amazing terrain and good for all exp levels. 

I ride a decent Trek front suspension mtn bike with disc brakes. I really want a full suspension bike but $2k is a lot to spend on a bike so I stick with my trusty trek. I've ridden about 700 miles this year. It's addicting rolling through the woods. Lol

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21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Mix of road and single track trails. Single tracks are by far my favorite but they're also often messy and tiring so not an every day or too much cleaning/maintenance. MoCo is loaded with 100s of miles of single tracks. Schaefer Farms in germantowm is an entire area dedicated to mtb trails. Amazing terrain and good for all exp levels. 

I ride a decent Trek front suspension mtn bike with disc brakes. I really want a full suspension bike but $2k is a lot to spend on a bike so I stick with my trusty trek. I've ridden about 700 miles this year. It's addicting rolling through the woods. Lol

This is something I've wanted to get back into, been a good while!

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22 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

This is something I've wanted to get back into, been a good while!

From one old guy to another.... buy or build an ebike. Just do it...

I converted my trek to electric for $750 and it's a total game changer. Power is 100% optional and I use it sparingly on trails but ripping through 10 miles of dirt trails without pulling over and panting my brains out is over the top fun. 

On the road I use pedal assist level 1. It will hold 15mph and I decide how much work I want to do. When it's blasting hot I'll run throttle only and it's no different than a moped. Range is 20-25mi throttle only and over 50 mi pedal assist. My longest ride was 40 miles and I still had 35% of my battery left.

The most expensive part of the conversion is the battery. Mine was $435 so no pocket change but it's a high capacity pack built with Panasonic cells. The cheap packs use generic china cells. Price is enticing but take no chances with cheap china li-ion cells as they can burn your house down of they fail.

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11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

From one old guy to another.... buy or build an ebike. Just do it...

Or, from another old guy, buy, or customize a golf cart. That's what I did when I moved down to the coast. It's fantastic. Just came back from a ride with the wife along the shoreline in our neighborhood. No panting. No stopping to rest. Can take 4 passengers and food and beverages as well. My way is much lazier and less healthy but baby steps. I just suspended drinking alcohol about a week ago. Feeling great. 

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4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

You are trying to learn. Don’t apologize that’s awesome!  It’s much preferred to those that know nothing, make no effort to learn anything, and fill up the threads with nonsense year after year. 

Ive been getting the same kind of questions both in the threads and in PMs lately so later today (probably this evening) I’m going to revive the old winter weather classroom thread we had with explanations of various pattern drivers and analogs to past storms from various patterns with explanations of what made them work.  I’ve been working on a project for a while looking at past mid atl snows and categorizing them by pattern type. I intent to finish today and post those results also. Something to do during the down time. 

That sounds great!  Anxiously waiting.

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Don't worry. He'll be busy tracking the next fail sometime around the 7th. Should already have a discrete fail picked out by NYD

Leesburgs sass aside (he doesn’t get that I LIKE doing this win or lose) I’m not too invested in the Jan 6-12 period. It could work. But we’ve seen a LOT of these epo driven gradient looks the last few years look great at day 8-15 only to become mostly rain (maybe some slop to start) waves that track to our north. That’s what climo says that type pattern favors. But it does work out every so often.  Usually if we get lucky with a transient 50/50 or tpv lobe in the right spot. It could happen. Just not the most likely outcome. 

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17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Leesburgs sass aside (he doesn’t get that I LIKE doing this win or lose) I’m not too invested in the Jan 6-12 period. It could work. But we’ve seen a LOT of these epo driven gradient looks the last few years look great at day 8-15 only to become mostly rain (maybe some slop to start) waves that track to our north. That’s what climo says that type pattern favors. But it does work out every so often.  Usually if we get lucky with a transient 50/50 or tpv lobe in the right spot. It could happen. Just not the most likely outcome. 

What exactly is a "gradient look"?  Looking at the EPS for the 6 - 10, I see a broad, kind of shallow trough across the eastern 2/3rds of the country, but with no -NAO support..  Is that just what gradient means in this context?

 

image.thumb.png.4b0a877cff0118cb16d2e4086f0c74da.png

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2 minutes ago, Mersky said:

When I read your posts my first thought is glass half empty. Happens every time 

Given the climatology of the MA, any realistic assessments should be pessimistic with regards to snow chances most of the time.  The baseline median state is "poor". 

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1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

@nj2va

As good as the caps are they take way too many penalties.  They need to clean that up before Spring time. 

That'll cost them in the playoffs.

Agreed...another 3 penalties so far tonight.  Holtby’s not having a good game tonight.  

I have YouTube TV and unfortunately don’t get NBCSW+ so I’m only following along on my phone while I’m watching the Clemson/OSU game.

Let’s hope we reverse jinx them again with our posts. :p

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1 hour ago, nj2va said:

Agreed...another 3 penalties so far tonight.  Holtby’s not having a good game tonight.  

I have YouTube TV and unfortunately don’t get NBCSW+ so I’m only following along on my phone while I’m watching the Clemson/OSU game.

Let’s hope we reverse jinx them again with our posts. :p

Not tonight ;)

My Penguins blew a 4-1 lead but came back to win 6-4

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