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December Banter 2019


George BM
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18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Great story... so we buy scatcher lottery tickets for stocking stuffers every year. I scratched off my winning #s and the very first prize scratch was a matching # and $100k prize. We all thought we hit 100k...until I finished scratching the ticket...and my winning match was actually the row below 100k so I won $10. LOL. I can't get over the feeling of losing $99,990 this morning. Oh well, gotta keep working. 

Merry Christmas snow starved weenies!

Was it a boxing day scratcher? 

Merry Christmas all....well most of you :)

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Honestly, I'm just a winter lover to the max. Sure, I LOVE snow as much as any of us. I also love when it's downright cold. Those stretches where it's below freezing for like 7-10 days consecutively are amazing. Love watching bodies of water freeze over. I look forward to the 10 degree nights when I can walk my dog and just experience that bitter fresh cold air. It always makes me laugh when people try to tell me that no one actually loves winter, they just love snow because it gets them off work/school. I can't relate to that statement at all. 

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56 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Man that happens in mid January here

Exactly. Much is made of the sun angle thing, but the reality is it rarely stays cold for long after it snows in these parts. Even in our epic winter of 2009-10, with lowest sun angle and 20+ inches of snow on Dec 18th, there was not much left by Xmas.

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11 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

I actually take a 3" snow in late April at 6am even if it melted by 10am

One thing about March is with the clash of air masses and deeper moisture potential....a big qpf bomb is always possible.  One of these days a March 58' or 42' will happen again and when u think about it ...its only the last 150 years we've had reliable records.  Earth is how many millions of years old...lol. Just something that's always in the back of my mind.  Who knows when the next 100 yr storm,  or 500 yr storm,  or heck even 100,000 yr. Storm is coming :weenie:

You know I always have wondered what the most anomalous weather event in the last say 50,000 or 100,000 years was in the region, the US, and in the world.

Was there a 2+ foot blizzard in Miami... in May?

A 200 mph category 5 hurricane... striking Newfoundland?

Has it snowed... at sea-level in Jamaica?

I wish there was an easy way to figure these things out.

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11 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Let’s kick 2020 off with a bang and get a Day After Tomorrow like blizzard and Arctic displacement. 50-100” in the megalopolis and -10s down to Miami. @losetoa6 who needs sleep when we’re tracking the storm of the millennium. :weenie: 

PSU will worry about getting fringed while NPZ talks about getting dry slotted and Eskimo Joe downplays tripling our seasonal average in one storm because the region got a bigger storm in 300 BC.  

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While waiting, Bell and Strieber The Coming Global Superstorm might be an interesting read. As always ........

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Unless there’s suppression depression 

That seems to be less of a factor in recent times.  It’s bad for us but the SE crew really can’t even get to climo as meager as it is.  Could always be worse I guess. I would be happy where you are.  At least you have some wiggle room.  We have none.  

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21 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

That seems to be less of a factor in recent times.  It’s bad for us but the SE crew really can’t even get to climo as meager as it is.  Could always be worse I guess. I would be happy where you are.  At least you have some wiggle room.  We have none.  

Interestingly, the NW third or so of NC (north and west of I-40/85) has been on a bit of streak the last 3 years or so.  I'd say quite a few places are maybe 150% climo in that region for the last 3 years.

I may have hit climo on December 9 of last year (no boos please) even though I don't think I saw another flake the rest of the winter.

Also the difference between mean climo and median climo may be even more important for us than for you guys.  Lots of years in the lowlands get nothing but a trace, but the occasional  4 - 12" events can really skew the mean.  

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2 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Interestingly, the NW third or so of NC (north and west of I-40/85) has been on a bit of streak the last 3 years or so.  I'd say quite a few places are maybe 150% climo in that region for the last 3 years.

I may have hit climo on December 9 of last year (no boos please) even though I don't think I saw another flake the rest of the winter.

Also the difference between mean climo and median climo may be even more important for us than for you guys.  Lots of years in the lowlands get nothing but a trace, but the occasional  4 - 12" events can really skew the mean.  

Good points.  Neither of us have a chance if the LR EPS come to fruition at day 15. We will just have colder rain.  At least we can laugh about it. 

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29 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

How often does any LR model come to fruition? Don't worry about it. 

We are in the middle of a lights-out, Pac puke pattern which was foreseen by the EPS two weeks ago.  The GEFS/GEPS caught on shortly thereafter.  They were 100% on target 10+ days out.  So I have to disagree with your assessment.     

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4 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

We are in the middle of a lights-out, Pac puke pattern which was foreseen by the EPS two weeks ago.  The GEFS/GEPS caught on shortly thereafter.  They were 100% on target 10+ days out.  So I have to disagree with your assessment.     

I just asked a question about the frequency. It's doesn't seem to me it's very often. Anyway, don't worry about it (lol). On a related front, if the second half of the GFS run is correct about the cold temps, I would think we can get lucky at least once. Either way, the cold air seems to be somewhat close.  

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