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December Banter 2019


George BM
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2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I guess this is one of those “looks bad days”

Over/Under in the next “looks great days”

I say 3.

So reminiscent of the old Miller Lite commercials.

Fish and weather models stink after three days....or however the saying goes. 

But yes, you are absolutely correct. Don't like what you see? :( Wait three days. Should be better :weenie:

And if it's not better, then you can let worry creep in. If after three more days it still stinks, then full on doom and gloom is permitted. 

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Winter as a whole has become uninteresting to me. I still love snow alot but the whole seasonal outlook/looking ahead thing is just too meh now. If a storm is close I get excited and if it's snowing I enjoy it but the chase has simply lost its luster for me. That's why I just live in banter mostly anymore 

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18 hours ago, cbmclean said:

Well our two-day-long emotional high appears to be over.  Back to the despair zone.

In 2 days the hope will return if not sooner. 'Workable' looks will start to show for 2 days. Then flip back to despair. Wash rinse repeat. Seems like a pattern where something will sneak in under the radar and the LR flops will continue. 

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1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

Winter as a whole has become uninteresting to me. I still love snow alot but the whole seasonal outlook/looking ahead thing is just too meh now. If a storm is close I get excited and if it's snowing I enjoy it but the chase has simply lost its luster for me. That's why I just live in banter mostly anymore 

Pretty much describes where im heading too. The idea of “knowing enough” to punt 3 weeks at a time is just not fun. I’ll look ahead to the next 5-7 days for threats but for me personally, kinda pointless beyond that. And also not fun. 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Lol. Actually way to busy with holidays to worry much about snow. Hopefully things look better in about a week when I can really care again. My life right now is close to a scene from Christmas vacation. 

Hopefully not the scene with the chainsaw.

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13 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Hopefully not the scene with the chainsaw.

Lol. Classic. Not quite yet but getting there. Wife is sick.  Was in NJ for a Xmas and 50th anniversary party for my parents this weekend.  In PA now visiting my Wife’s family.  Hosting 12 people on Christmas Day at my house.  In the middle had to drive to York in the middle of the night to pick up a play house for my kids because when it finally arrived 2 weeks late the other day it was missing parts.   Had to redo half the lights because a power surge knocked out 3 strings and I changed the fuses and they still won’t work.  We’re still getting the house in order after renovating both bathrooms and the kitchen following a massive plumbing failure. It’s a lot with 2 young children.

It’s all good though, I love the holidays and stress doesn’t really get to me.  But with everything snow chasing can take a back seat for a little while. 

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Good to see the Ravens were quick to make the decision to sit Lamar and some other key starters for the Steelers game. This team is focused and on a  mission, so it's an easy call to risk being a bit 'rusty' over a possible serious injury in a meaningless game.

I don't want the Steelers getting in, but I think the Titans will beat the Texans, who also are locked in and have nothing to play for. If that happens, the Steelers go home.

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This is the most interesting Xmas Day AFD I have seen since 1989.....

"A lot of uncertaint has appeared in latest guidance regarding
later tonight through Christmas Day. While some models have only
limited low level moisture, other guidance like the latest few
NAM runs suggest low level flow off the ocean will bring
widespread low clouds into the region. The NAM even suggests
there could be some patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle.
Confidence on this is not yet high, but we will need to watch
this potential closely given the potential large ramifications
on the forecast. Without the low clouds, highs should rebound
well into the 40s on Christmas Day after lows in the 20s.
However, should the low clouds envelop the area, it is likely
temps would get stuck in the 30s on Christmas, resulting in a
considerably different flavor to the day. Again, confidence on
this is not high, but will need to watch trends closely through
today."

 

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2 minutes ago, mappy said:

Was pretty frosty yesterday. haven’t even looked outside yet today 

yeah here too.  same today.  had to work for a bit so had the luxury of heading out at 7.  the overnight LR runs are frightful, but the traffic was so delightful

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:o

My friends my friends! Heads-up my friends!

 

Area Forecast Discussion

NWS GeorgeBM Headquarters

1:57PM EST Tuesday, December 24, 2019

A Potentially Life-Threatening Winter Storm will impact the region this afternoon into tonight

Heavy rain and thunderstorms will move into the region this afternoon. These storms may contain severe hail. The most intense storms may have strong enough downdrafts to penetrate the low-level stable layer and bring some strong wind gusts to the surface. Precip will then change over to very heavy snow from west to east through the late afternoon/early evening hours as temps drop from the lower 50sF to near freezing. Snowfall rates may exceed 6 inches per hour and with the surface low bombing out over the central Chesapeake Bay wind gusts of around 70 to 75+ mph across the region will lead to whiteout conditions through the evening. The dangerous winds combined with the heavy wet snow will lead to widespread power outages and widespread tree damage. Blizzard Warnings have been hoisted for the entire forecast area. Areas from Northern VA, the WV Panhandle, through DC and much of Maryland and into North/Central Delaware will see snow totals of 30”-45”+ with snow-drifts that may exceed 20 feet. The snow will taper-off from west to east across the region between 1z and 5z before skies start clearing overnight with Wind Advisory-level winds continuing and temps slowly dropping into the upper 20sF. This is a potentially life-threatening storm that should not be taken too lightly. You should be prepared to be without power for an extended period of time.

Near term... GBM

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The good news is we don't have to worry about any weather tracking distractions this holiday. 

that's good news.  always seems like we are tracking some warning level event on Christmas and it takes away from me spending time with my in-laws.  This year I am all ears as they lament about doctors appointments and how my kids need less gifts and more discipline. thanks a pant load mother nature.

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