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December Banter 2019


George BM
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6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

After a super slow start by Ravens standards,. that second quarter was a WOW. Mastery running the 2 min offense for TDs- TWICE. Vintage Jackson. He has all the skills + the intangibles. After the initial drive in the third quarter, it was pretty much lights out for the Browns.

Say...are you a Ravens fan?

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5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Do you mean Ingram?

Well I mean both Lamar and Ingram.. ingram for the calf and lamar for the knee.  Ingram looks like he might have done some big damage.  Non contact injuries usually mean something popped.   I am praying.. and I am praying.. that Lamar is fine.. but I know what it looks like to walk out a knee.. 

Lets see what happens on Tuesday.. but I have a bad feeling.  

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

No reason in the world to play Jackson a single play next week.

Should be able to handle the Steelers at home with RG3 under center.

The problem with that is I have seen so many times when a team rests it's starters the last week and then has a bye, and they come out super rusty in the divisionals.

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1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

The problem with that is I have seen so many times when a team rests it's starters the last week and then has a bye, and they come out super rusty in the divisionals.

And then there's the Pats with no rust for past 19 years. Rather have guys healthy and just hope they can stay mentally focused. Good coaching can help that. I think this team is mentally ready to go. 

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4 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

The problem with that is I have seen so many times when a team rests it's starters and then has a bye and the come out super rusty in the divisionals.

It definitely can happen. But otoh, you play your key players in an absolutely meaningless game and one or more sustains a serious injury, then what? Fans and sports media kill you and you might lose in the first round anyway. You trust the coaches and players to prepare and be ready to go, well rested. Should not be a problem.

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11 minutes ago, PDIII said:

Well I mean both Lamar and Ingram.. ingram for the calf and lamar for the knee.  Ingram looks like he might have done some big damage.  Non contact injuries usually mean something popped.   I am praying.. and I am praying.. that Lamar is fine.. but I know what it looks like to walk out a knee.. 

Lets see what happens on Tuesday.. but I have a bad feeling.  

Dude. Chill. He played with no signs of a serious injury after being dinged a little.

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12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Forecasts change when the objective evidence they are based on change. If you don’t believe in that perhaps you should stick with JB. 

Not to nitpick but is that a forecast then or just a rip and read? Seems to me if the only thing anyone is doing is basing each days guess on what that days model info says then they aren't really forecasting. Not that i'm saying that is wrong or if there is any other way but seriously. The board mood swings on here are a combo of a few things. One is the models rarely lock in on anything at distance so the change and swings are comical at times the other thing is the group that interprets the model runs can only say what that day just told them so if it changes significantly like they have recently from crappy look to a way out of the crap look to an ok look back to a crappy look all in a few days then the board mood is going to swing with it. Of course if you are level headed, understand where you live and can manage your emotions like an adult you don't have those swings. It's quite obvious the board is filled with the opposite of all of the that. IMHO you and Bob and to some extent C.A.P.E and showme can make the moods swing in here depending on your interpretations. You guys always like to come back with...what are we not supposed to analyze the model runs...well of course you are supposed to if you want to but when you add in your own color or expectations or disappointment then don't be shocked when the weak minded can't handle it. It's just a fact of this environment.

In the end, I'm cool with whatever happens because I know I can't control the weather and I also am well aware where I live. I don't live here for snow I live here because I like living here. I appreciate the well thought out analysis you guys give for FREE in the LR thread, I'm not causing any trouble or hurt feelings I hope just stating how I interpret things around here after so many years.

Merry la la happy hoo hoo and all that jazz. Peace on Erf

 

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@leesburg 04

It depends. There is a lot of ripping and reading on Twitter.  The better forecasts use a combination of real time data, experience, analogs, and  nwp guidance. First you are dismissing the fact that most people could look at a day 10 eps h5 plot and have no idea what it means. But beyond that, long range nwp is going to be in error. Using experience to predict the error is a big part. How to adjust the guidance. Problem right now is there isn’t an easy minor adjustment to what guidance is showing up top that fixes that mess. But it very easily could be wrong. 

But there is not much skill to day 11+ forecasts. Even the best have very low verification scores. That’s just reality. I think myself, bob, Cape, showme wxusaf would ALL rather be discussing a realistic medium to short range threat. Problem is we spend most of the winter without one of those to talk about so we’re left reading the long range tea leaves for hints when things might improve. We all know it’s very low skill stuff. But it’s all we got. I don’t begrudge anyone who would rather just ignore it until things enter realistic range, as long as they don’t poop on the people who want to discuss long range patterns also.  

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16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@leesburg 04

It depends. There is a lot of ripping and reading on Twitter.  The better forecasts use a combination of real time data, experience, analogs, and  nwp guidance. First you are dismissing the fact that most people could look at a day 10 eps h5 plot and have no idea what it means. But beyond that, long range nwp is going to be in error. Using experience to predict the error is a big part. How to adjust the guidance. Problem right now is there isn’t an easy minor adjustment to what guidance is showing up top that fixes that mess. But it very easily could be wrong. 

But there is not much skill to day 11+ forecasts. Even the best have very low verification scores. That’s just reality. I think myself, bob, Cape, showme wxusaf would ALL rather be discussing a realistic medium to short range threat. Problem is we spend most of the winter without one of those to talk about so we’re left reading the long range tea leaves for hints when things might improve. We all know it’s very low skill stuff. But it’s all we got. I don’t begrudge anyone who would rather just ignore it until things enter realistic range, as long as they don’t poop on the people who want to discuss long range patterns also.  

You seem frustrated, are you ok?

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