December Banter 2019

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, jonjon said:

On a weather note we picked up close to 4" of snow yesterday/last night

On a beer note we're ramping up for the holidays, and going to be tasting our Mattie G inspired Buffalo Trace barrel aged imperial stout next week to see if its gained enough character to release some over Christmas week.  And our new fruited sour's w/lactose have been a huge hit (we currently have a Blackberry/Cranberry version on tap, and next week we will have a Mango/Guava version along with a Raspberry/Cherry version).  

We're proud to be the top West Virginia brewery on untapped.  See https://brilliantstream.com/2019/12/wv-breweries-untappd-2019/ and we have a new pub opening outside of Charleston this coming spring.

This whole brewery thing has not only been fun, but rewarding enough for me to be closing my law firm at the end of this year (I'll still be involved with a title company doing closings, but another step away from the rat race).  You only live once, so doing what you love to do instead of what you have to do is what has driven me to reach this point.  

Anyway, we hope to see some of you out this way soon, if not for the snow, at least maybe some beer.

Or both?  If I'm around I would certainly hook up any member here with a free libation!  Cheers!

Congrats! Love the sound of that stout.

I am going to try to make it out there in early Jan.

[nj2va]

@Chris78 Great win last night vs TBL during “Dad’s trip”...Samsonov was really sharp in net too.

[JakkelWx]

It's December 22nd. Fatties have been ripping for the past 6 hours and visibility is down to a quarter mile. 10 inches of snow and counting, I just recorded a pressure of 996 mb yet the low is down between Cape Hatteras and Norfolk. Blizzard conditions have been present with winds gusting to 55 miles per hour. Temp down to 27/26. Roads and highways are a shell of their former selves. Also we have yet another deathband setting just to my south with 2'' per hour rates. R/s line is 20 miles to my south where its 33 degrees and its quickly dropping south. C.A.P.E just recorded 12 inches not too far away from here and PSU has recorded just over 12'' as well and the meso models were going absolutely bonkers with 30'' lollies into E MD but cut back a little down to 20-25''. Haven't got any sleep since December 19th.

Here are the snow totals so far:

DCA - 10.7''

IAD - 11.5''

BWI - 12.3''

Bel Air, MD - 11.3''

Reston, VA - 12''

C.A.P.E - 12''

Me - 10.3''

[nj2va]

4 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

It's December 22nd. Fatties have been ripping for the past 6 hours and visibility is down to a quarter mile. 10 inches of snow and counting, I just recorded a pressure of 996 mb yet the low is down between Cape Hatteras and Norfolk. Blizzard conditions have been present with winds gusting to 55 miles per hour. Temp down to 27/26. Roads and highways are a shell of their former selves. Also we have yet another deathband setting just to my south with 2'' per hour rates. R/s line is 20 miles to my south where its 33 degrees and its quickly dropping south. C.A.P.E just recorded 12 inches not too far away from here and PSU has recorded just over 12'' as well and the meso models were going absolutely bonkers with 30'' lollies into E MD but cut back a little down to 20-25''. Haven't got any sleep since December 19th

....and then reality set in, you woke up, and its 34 with heavy rain.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, nj2va said:

....and then reality set in, you woke up, and its 34 with heavy rain.  

Or worse .... 34, partly cloudy, with a high wind warning

[JakkelWx]

9 minutes ago, nj2va said:

....and then reality set in, you woke up, and its 34 with heavy rain.  

Then I realized that my "waking up" was actually just another dream in a dream. Then I really woke up at 6 AM to find that there's 14'' of snow OTG and the storm is only halfway over. NAVGEM sniffed this thing out from like the 10th of December. 

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

JB mentions the potential this weekend in his Raging Weather Bull.  Looks at the UK and the EURO changes for support.  Potential Carolinas Northward.

He never hypes or exaggerates so I guess this is serious 

[WinterWxLuvr]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

He never hypes or exaggerates so I guess this is serious 

Pretty even keel guy

[CAPE]

Kinda chucked at this from Mount Holly AFD this morning-

High pressure will build into the region to close the week, with continued cold temperatures but dry conditions. Models are suggesting the development of a coastal low next weekend, but this is approaching la-la-land in model world. Obviously, we will monitor this potential in the coming days.

[Weather Will]

Interesting ICON has a low now albeit in South Florida!

[BristowWx]

Just now, Weather Will said:

Interesting ICON has a low now albeit in South Florida!

Right where we want it

[JakkelWx]

Bold prediction: This winter is going to suck after the white Christmas.

[CAPE]

22 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Bold prediction: This winter is going to suck after the white Christmas.

My bold prediction- We enjoy a mild Xmas courtesy of the Pacific onslaught and we get our snow chances afterwards, as usual.

[CAPE]

Looks like a fun game in KC today.

[nw baltimore wx]

2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Congrats! Love the sound of that stout.

I am going to try to make it out there in early Jan.

Let me know when you head out there.  I might be able to meet you for a beer and would love seeing the bigger brewery that he has out there.

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

My bold prediction- We enjoy a mild Xmas courtesy of the Pacific onslaught and we get our snow chances afterwards, as usual.

 

I think we can all agree it's coming and there's little chance at stopping it at this point. The next important topic is how long is it going to last? Every pac trough that digs repeats the process. I hope we can shake loose from that regime by new years. My guess is it continues through the end of Dec. 

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I think we can all agree it's coming and there's little chance at stopping it at this point. The next important topic is how long is it going to last? Every pac trough that digs repeats the process. I hope we can shake loose from that regime by new years. My guess is it continues through the end of Dec. 

There are degrees of warm of course.  This run happened to be uglier than the previous 2.  Seasonal is fine 60s suck a$$..so whatever happens with the storm impacts Xmas as well. 

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I think we can all agree it's coming and there's little chance at stopping it at this point. The next important topic is how long is it going to last? Every pac trough that digs repeats the process. I hope we can shake loose from that regime by new years. My guess is it continues through the end of Dec. 

Yeah it's beyond denying it at this point. It's Happening!! Hopefully it is relatively short lived.

As depicted, not a huge fan of the  potential coastal next weekend being a snow producer for the general MA region. Its an odd setup all around, not to mention the cold looks to be running away during that time. We just cant know, however.

[NorthArlington101]

If its not going to snow it might as well be 70, honestly.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

There are degrees of warm of course.  This run happened to be uglier than the previous 2.  Seasonal is fine 60s suck a$$..so whatever happens with the storm impacts Xmas as well. 

It's basically a shutout pattern. That's what bothers me. I embrace 60 in winter when I can see the way back. This upcoming regime is going to overwhelm for at least 5 days. Prob closer to 10 if not longer to get back to a more wintry continental pattern but just waggin there as it's impossible to know yet. 

We can dissect surface temps and such to try and hide the fact that the midlevels are totally f'd for almost all of north america leading into Christmas. Pac troughs digging to San Diego are rarely good. It won't last forever though. Just have to deal with a rough patch like we do every.single.winter. 

[JakkelWx]

Yeah I'm kinda losing confidence on this storm even though it's still 6-7 days away. To add insult to injury the pattern goes to complete garbage right after. I think that even if someone got a foot of snow on the 22nd, it'll all be gone by christmas morning with that kind of pattern. I'm going to go with no snow for me.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, JakkelWx said:

Yeah I'm kinda losing confidence on this storm even though it's still 6-7 days away. To add insult to injury the pattern goes to complete garbage right after. I think that even if someone got a foot of snow on the 22nd, it'll all be gone by christmas morning with that kind of pattern. I'm going to go with no snow for me.

Agree.  My shut the blinds idea is to just work a lot during the holiday and save the vacation days for winter events. I’m a bear anyway when it’s warm on the holidays so it’s a gift to my family as well.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, JakkelWx said:

Yeah I'm kinda losing confidence on this storm even though it's still 6-7 days away. To add insult to injury the pattern goes to complete garbage right after. I think that even if someone got a foot of snow on the 22nd, it'll all be gone by christmas morning with that kind of pattern. I'm going to go with no snow for me.

Jan 2016....warmup.right after. It happens when you get an Archambault event and they are not easy to forecast. The coming weekend storm looks to be in that category as the NAO ridge moves around. I would take a decent snowstorm even if it meant sacrificing the pattern for a week or so. I'm not in the camp that the PAC puke sticks around thru mid January as I have seen touted around in other forums.  By Jan 1 the return to a better pattern should be well underway.

[frd]

19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Just have to deal with a rough patch like we do every.single.winter. 

Harder and harder to get an old fashion winter.  I also do not agree with those whom stated winter started early .  Look at national temps and the big warm up coming, and it is par for the course. Even the post 12/20 warm up is fitting the pattern from the last 9 years. Nothing really special so far. 

Now,  if this were December 2002, yes, that winter started early.  

[HighStakes]

4 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Yeah I'm kinda losing confidence on this storm even though it's still 6-7 days away. To add insult to injury the pattern goes to complete garbage right after. I think that even if someone got a foot of snow on the 22nd, it'll all be gone by christmas morning with that kind of pattern. I'm going to go with no snow for me.

 

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

Agree.  My shut the blinds idea is to just work a lot during the holiday and save the vacation days for winter events. I’m a bear anyway when it’s warm on the holidays so it’s a gift to my family as well.  

Wonderful to see so many uplifting post only 2 weeks into meteorological winter but I digress.

[frd]

Just now, HighStakes said:

 

Wonderful to see so many uplifting post only 2 weeks into meteorological winter but I digress.

A great period of winter weather from Jan 23 to Feb 25 would make this winter a winner. Still feel it delivers, but as you know, this upcoming winter has always been referred to as one with conflicting signals.  regardless, no one should panic now even if the warm up lasts a while.  

[Bob Chill]

Just now, frd said:

Harder and harder to get an old fashion winter.  I also do not agree with those whom stated winter started early this early. Look at national temps and the big warm up coming, and it is par for the course. Even the post 12/20 warm up is fitting the pattern from the last 9 years. Nothing really special so far. 

Now,  if this were December 2002, yes, that winter started early.  

13-14 qualifies. Yea, we had a stupid warm spell mid Dec but start and finish were quite wintry and it never let up until April. 

November's cold made it feel like early winter. SNE is having a cold/snowy early winter but elsewhere east of the MS river has been avg or warm. We have had a couple legit chances so far so it's not "one of those winters". Nothing special overall but few if anybody thought Dec would be deep winter. 

[CAPE]

35 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's basically a shutout pattern. That's what bothers me. I embrace 60 in winter when I can see the way back. This upcoming regime is going to overwhelm for at least 5 days. Prob closer to 10 if not longer to get back to a more wintry continental pattern but just waggin there as it's impossible to know yet. 

We can dissect surface temps and such to try and hide the fact that the midlevels are totally f'd for almost all of north america leading into Christmas. Pac troughs digging to San Diego are rarely good. It won't last forever though. Just have to deal with a rough patch like we do every.single.winter. 

The EPS has been pretty steadfast on that idea, and your early concerns seem warranted at this point. GEFS had been hinting at ridge development in the EPO/WPO regions, but has since backed off and the 0z GEFS run arguably looked worse than the EPS at the end of the run. Doesn't look like we will get enough help up top to mitigate the unfavorable Pac either. Generally a weakly negative to neutral AO/NAO look in the LR.

In monitoring mode now. Still very possible this ends up being a fairly transient period. I know the reality of my general climo, so I never expect much frozen in December anyway, outside of  a year like 2009 when it was clear we had a textbook pattern emerging.

[Maestrobjwa]

13 minutes ago, frd said:

A great period of winter weather from Jan 23 to Feb 25 would make this winter a winner. Still feel it delivers, but as you know, this upcoming winter has always been referred to as one with conflicting signals.  regardless, no one should panic now even if the warm up lasts a while.  

As I've been saying...that is essentially our best window during the window. Jan 15th-Feb 20th (for warning level events we don't get many before mid-January unless we get it before Christmas (rare). And we don't get any the last week of February for some reason either, lol I daresay we've gotten more snow in the first week or two of March than December...lol But that could be wrong (I'd like to check the numbers on that)

[Ralph Wiggum]

28 minutes ago, frd said:

A great period of winter weather from Jan 23 to Feb 25 would make this winter a winner. Still feel it delivers, but as you know, this upcoming winter has always been referred to as one with conflicting signals.  regardless, no one should panic now even if the warm up lasts a while.  

How are people punting thru the last week of January?