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December Banter 2019


George BM
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3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

In all the excitement of the snowstorm this morning ...i got to my job in Woodbine and realized I left all my tools home :weep:. Cant make $ that way lol. 

Damn that sucks... you had to drive all the way back home to get your tools and then drive back to work?

Must have been great to tell your boss/co-worker or client that you were so excited for the snow that you had no tools :lol:

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56 minutes ago, Scraff said:

This happy hour GFS is brought to you by Sapwood Cellars “The Dragon”. Holy effing hell. Soooooo good!!

9E57F88A-A8E3-4DD0-BECB-2A8806D291D7.jpeg

I’ve only had Sapwood at the Aslin anniversary party...and it was really damn good. Besides, as a home brewer, I love what these guys have done to get where they are.

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38 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

People believing the Euro snow forecasts are like ...BB41764F-B124-42A5-9A74-C9DCE4717471.jpeg.3f3526c815cb132c72ce8dbf509b09e3.jpeg

I doubt anyone actually believes them verbatim. Its all for the lolz.

Snow maps imo have little value until inside of 3 days, and even then they need to be objectively interpreted based on surface temps, 700, 850 mb temps, etc.

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20 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I was referring to the fact that seemingly every time the euro gives snow while others do not it has often shown itself to be completely wrong.

But we can always hope it’s right lol.

Euro is better, but it’s not so superior that its likely correct even when the preponderance of evidence is against it.  We get frustrated that it feels like the non snowy solutions always win but that’s because usually the non snowy solutions are the majority only we focus on the runs that show snow.  Even when the ensembles show a mean snow of 4-5” often it gets there with 30-40% showing massive hits and 50-60% showing nothing. When the super majority of guidance suggests snow in the medium range it does snow more often than not. That’s just a rare occurrence compared to the plethora of times one or two runs show snow and then cave to the majority that don’t.  

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14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Euro is better, but it’s not so superior that its likely correct even when the preponderance of evidence is against it.  We get frustrated that it feels like the non snowy solutions always win but that’s because usually the non snowy solutions are the majority only we focus on the runs that show snow.  Even when the ensembles show a mean snow of 4-5” often it gets there with 30-40% showing massive hits and 50-60% showing nothing. When the super majority of guidance suggests snow in the medium range it does snow more often than not. That’s just a rare occurrence compared to the plethora of times one or two runs show snow and then cave to the majority that don’t.  

That's a great point to remind folks of. 

WRT to early next week, if we speed up a bit and keep it close on the heels of weekend rainier, that could keep the ridging in check for the wintry offerings to be in play for some of us.  

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