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December Banter 2019


George BM
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12 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Leesburgs sass aside (he doesn’t get that I LIKE doing this win or lose) I’m not too invested in the Jan 6-12 period. It could work. But we’ve seen a LOT of these epo driven gradient looks the last few years look great at day 8-15 only to become mostly rain (maybe some slop to start) waves that track to our north. That’s what climo says that type pattern favors. But it does work out every so often.  Usually if we get lucky with a transient 50/50 or tpv lobe in the right spot. It could happen. Just not the most likely outcome. 

You sound like my ex wife 

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5 hours ago, yoda said:

Sounds like he will be soon... i hope he is gone like tomorrow

Yeah. He's gone after today. Good for you Redskins fans. What a complete disaster that organization is. One problem. And the biggest problem. Danny is still there. Unless he sells the team look for much of the same. That fool changed the landscape of pro football in the DMV to an afterthought.  20 years ago and prior it used to be all Redskins all the time 12 months out of the year. Now the other two prominent sports franchises in the region have far exceeded Danny Boys lump of crap. Thank goodness for that. Otherwise it would be a miserable town notwithstanding the lack of snow.

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20 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Mix of road and single track trails. Single tracks are by far my favorite but they're also often messy and tiring so not an every day or too much cleaning/maintenance. MoCo is loaded with 100s of miles of single tracks. Schaefer Farms in germantowm is an entire area dedicated to mtb trails. Amazing terrain and good for all exp levels. 

I ride a decent Trek front suspension mtn bike with disc brakes. I really want a full suspension bike but $2k is a lot to spend on a bike so I stick with my trusty trek. I've ridden about 700 miles this year. It's addicting rolling through the woods. Lol

Sounds awesome, Bob!  Though I don't really do mountain biking myself as I have a "hybrid" bike that's more for roads, I do enjoy a trail now and then if it's reasonably smooth and/or paved.  Theoretically, I think, one can put wider tires onto a hybrid, depending on the wheel type, and it can be used for lighter mountain trails.  I've actually got somewhat moderate tires on my Trek which enables a decent ride on both roads and some off-road (the tires that came on the bike originally).  They're not fast like road bike slicks, but fast enough for me when I'm out there.  Long ago in another time, I had a true road bike with the thin, fast tires and I could fly on that damned thing!  At my age now, I wouldn't dare do that, hahaha!  So a bit fatter tire is nice!  I've gotten used to the straight handlebars, after years of the drop bars on the previous bike (though sometimes, I really miss the drop type!!).

Treks are good, I have to say!  When I went searching for a new bike, I wasn't totally sure what I wanted.  I at first looked for a good road bike to "go back" to what I had long ago, but they are just too expensive now and not sure I'd really get the use out of it to justify (but they were damn fine bikes, to be sure!).  Like you, $2K for a bike is a bit much for me.  Local bike shop where I'm at is a Trek retailer, so they had lots of those...I tried one of their moderate priced hybrids and WOW, what an amazing ride!  So I splurged, relatively speaking.  Then splurged on the Garmin, haha!  And yeah...disc breaks are quite nice!!  Never had those before, always had the old-style center pull back in the day!

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On 12/27/2019 at 7:23 PM, WVclimo said:

Wife and kids and I biked about 15 miles on the Western Maryland Rail Trail on Christmas Eve.  Weather was perfect for that kind of ride.  If you ever have a chance to get up this way, it's a beautiful (paved) 26-mile path that parallels the C & O Canal.


 

 

Hey there, WVclimo!  That sounds great, and looks like that trail would be a very pleasant ride!  Thanks for the info, I'll have to see if I can ever manage to get out that way for a spin at some point (and maybe bring the camera too)...

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21 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

Yeah. He's gone after today. Good for you Redskins fans. What a complete disaster that organization is. One problem. And the biggest problem. Danny is still there. Unless he sells the team look for much of the same. That fool changed the landscape of pro football in the DMV to an afterthought.  20 years ago and prior it used to be all Redskins all the time 12 months out of the year. Now the other two prominent sports franchises in the region have far exceeded Danny Boys lump of crap. Thank goodness for that. Otherwise it would be a miserable town notwithstanding the lack of snow.

I get the Redskins mess is a two headed hydra. But even just removing one of them hopefully will help. 

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48 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

Yeah. He's gone after today. Good for you Redskins fans. What a complete disaster that organization is. One problem. And the biggest problem. Danny is still there. Unless he sells the team look for much of the same. That fool changed the landscape of pro football in the DMV to an afterthought.  20 years ago and prior it used to be all Redskins all the time 12 months out of the year. Now the other two prominent sports franchises in the region have far exceeded Danny Boys lump of crap. Thank goodness for that. Otherwise it would be a miserable town notwithstanding the lack of snow.

I love seeing the steaming pile of shit that they’ve turned the Redskins into.  As a Caps & Nats fan, its about time the two teams who have actually won things have become the talk of the town.  

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On 12/28/2019 at 7:54 PM, cbmclean said:

Given the climatology of the MA, any realistic assessments should be pessimistic with regards to snow chances most of the time.  The baseline median state is "poor". 

the challenge is putting emotions aside and forecasting based off of pure objectiveness, though there's probably some merit to erring on the side of caution with every potential because it does seem like even the best models are not always on point with the nuances that can cause a busted forecast here (e.g., warm ground, atlantic air, mountains/downsloping, etc.).  heck, there's busted forecasts all year 'round.  there were many days where sun was forecast and we're left with clouds.  happened the other day, too.  i still think searching for cold makes more sense here which is also why i think tracking indices is where it's at.  precip ain't a thing here...just look outside.  at minimum, we get too much cold (not what i enjoy btw) and we end up with side swept clippers.

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20 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

This gets me every time (or not so much anymore).

Why would it get anybody? Op runs 7+ days out in time always have wild swings and jumps. It's been that way forever. Being surprised that an op flips to a brand new solution every 6 or 12 hours means you don't understand the inherent limitations of operational models. 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s not personal...lol. I understand people don’t want to hear it doesn’t look good. 

Well no one wants to hear it doesn't look good.  But if it really doesn't look good, I'd rather hear the truth.  In many human endeavors (war, business, love) some unwarranted optimism can actually be useful.  If the founding fathers had been completely rational, they probably would have been like "meh - maybe later".  But weather is not a human endeavor.  No amount of positive thinking can materialize one single snow flake or move the 540 line south one meter.

On a brighter note, I wish I had been here back in 2009 - 10.  It must have been rocking and rolling.  Or were people griping that they only got 12 while NW they got 24"?

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2 hours ago, cbmclean said:

Well no one wants to hear it doesn't look good.  But if it really doesn't look good, I'd rather hear the truth.  In many human endeavors (war, business, love) some unwarranted optimism can actually be useful.  If the founding fathers had been completely rational, they probably would have been like "meh - maybe later".  But weather is not a human endeavor.  No amount of positive thinking can materialize one single snow flake or move the 540 line south one meter.

On a brighter note, I wish I had been here back in 2009 - 10.  It must have been rocking and rolling.  Or were people griping that they only got 12 while NW they got 24"?

Ji wasn’t too impressed :lol:

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12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I really don’t like it when a new poster comes in here and starts throwing off on one of our own, one of our best. I’ve never received any warning posts but it may be coming soon.

@psuhoffman keep on keepin on dude.

 Most everyone here understands we would need a legit NAO block to overcome a monster NPAC ridge in the vicinity of the Aleutians , other than Mursky apparently. This is pretty straightforward stuff. He also doesn't seem to realize that this is model discussion- as advertised/depicted by current ens guidance. Ofc no one fukking knows. Jerksey, with 28 posts, can go pound sand.

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